Author name: Sean Hathaway

I am the owner of this site.

#74 – President, NFLX, TSLA, Markets, oh my!

Biden might be laughing his ass off right now!!

Markets are booming ridiculously: 

  • S&P 500 hits record high today at 6000.
  • Bitcoin at $76,000.
  • This does feel “frothy”

Fed Cut rates again. 

  • Federal-funds rate to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. All 12 Fed voters backed the cut.
  • Bad for money markets good for economic growth.

Netflix

  • $798. Call it $800. All time high on
  • Mkt cap about $340 billion.
  • Tyson vs Jake Paul. 3-part documentary. Fight on Nov 15. Next Friday at 5:00pm.

Palantir and Nvidia

  • Palantir: Up 40% in the week.
  • Nvidia: All time high at $148. $3.6 trillion. Largest company in world.

Tesla: 

  • Stock at $326. $1 trillion market cap. Up 30% this week.
    • $410 is high. So still 30% upside.
  • Musk bet the farm. Could have been deported. Govt is/was after him.
  • Lawsuits done.
    • DOJ suing SpaceX for not hiring asylum seekers!
  • Gene Munster on Tesla and Robotaxi
    • Autonomy IS HAPPENING! Now less govt regulation.
  • Robots: Xping in China showing of Robots. Why is this good?! Robot videos.
    • Robots ARE HAPPENING!

Politics

  • Biden seems skippy!
  • Key difference now is long form podcasts! I (and others) really got to know Donald, JD, Tulsi, RFK.  I didn’t hear an interview with ANYONE on Kamala’s team.
  • Andrew Yang said HUGE mistake not going on Joe Rogan.
  • BTW, don’t forget Rogan endorsed Bernie! He got screwed. So did Tulsi and RFK, because they refused to be puppets.

Dems: Time to return to “normal”

  • Maybe have a primary next time!
  • Immigration: Bill Clinton in 1995 on immigration.
  • Forever foreign wars and industrial military complex.
  • Over regulation 450 govt agencies!   and over-spending!
  • Inflation is messy, but was clearly on people’s minds
  • Defunding Police!?  People want clean safe neighborhoods.

Final Point: Good reset opportunity. We’ll be fine.

Wait One more thing:

  • Epstein list!!! These guys are fucked! More than 150 names may be made public as part of a settled civil lawsuit against British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell — who was found guilty of conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse underage girls for at least a decade — Maxwell “the mastermind” behind Epstein’s sex trafficking ring.
  • Diddy videos! Probably funny.

University of Oregon: Leonard SerratoHere what he has to say!

Recommendations?

  • Get outside!
  • Save and invest your money.

#74 – President, NFLX, TSLA, Markets, oh my! Read More »

#73 – Bend OR, Markets, Google, MSFT, Meta, XAI, US President

Opening

  • I make mistakes on my podcasts. Please feel free to comment and fact-check me. It’s hard. I try to go hard and not pause. 
    • NFL on Netflix on “Saturday”. Wednesday is x-mas.  
  • Oregon plays Michigan today. Ducks favored by 14.5
  • Redmond:
    • Visiting parents. 
    • Very cold there.
    • Food carts and BEER!!! Need that in San Jose! Huge business opportunity! 
  • Alaska Airlines thoughts. 
  • Single digit golf stats

Markets

  • Overall strong earnings, but seeing some pullback.  
  • Can’t bet against these big guys.  

Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio: To calculate the total value of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S., most analysts use The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, which is an index that represents the value of all stocks in the U.S. markets. The quarterly GDP is used as the denominator in the ratio calculation.

Typically, a result that is greater than 100% is said to show that the market is overvalued, while a value of around 50%, which is near the historical average for the U.S. market, is said to show undervaluation. If the valuation ratio falls between 50% and 75%, the market can be said to be modestly undervalued.

  • 2.0 almost at all time high. Last time at 2 was Nov 2021.  

CAPE Ratio:

  • 35. 
  • 38 in Nov 2021. 
  • 44 in Dec 1999. 

Ford, Meta, Google, Microsoft, XAI

 

Ford Earnings. 

    • Ford to idle production of F150 Lightning
      • Ford has sold a mere 22,807 Lightnings so far this year—a far cry from the 180,000 the Dearborn factory was originally supposed to produce. The EV lobby and its friends in the press fawned over the Lightning when it debuted two years ago. The Lightning supposedly signaled that EVs had finally gone mainstream. Not quite.
      • Ford’s EV division has lost $3.7 billion during the first three quarters of this year—about $55,000 per EV—and expects $5 billion to $5.5 billion in losses this year.
  • Tesla Net Income $2.2 billion.

Meta: 

These numbers are insane! 

  • Revenue up $6b or 19%. $41b vs $34b
  • Operating margin 43% from 40%. 
  • Net income up $4b (35%). . $16 vs $12. 

Google /Alphabet Earnings

  • Earnings release here. 
  • Revenues up 15% to $88.3 billion.
  • Total operating income increased 34%.
  • Net income increased 34% and EPS increased 37% to $2.12.

Microsoft

  • Revenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%
  • Operating income was $30.6 billion and increased 14%
  • Net income was $24.7 billion and increased 11% 

XAI – 

xAI plans to bring online an additional 100,000 Nvidia GPUs at its Memphis, Tennessee training cluster within the next 2 months, for a total of 200,000 Nvidia GPUs, doubling the size of what was already the world’s largest and most powerful supercomputer.

  • This is AFTER Jensen Huang praised xAI’s engineering, networking, infrastructure and software teams, referring to them as “extraordinary”. By putting 100,000 GPUs, Colossus has become “easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster
  • AI smarter than all humans combined by 2029
  • By 2040 more humanoid robots than people.

President of the US

  • Trump on Rogan
  • JD Vance on Rogan
    • Tulsi and RFK have also been on Rogan. And Elon. 
  • Kamala on Call her Daddy
  • Hillary Clinton in 2008:“If they’ve committed a crime… DEPORT THEM! No questions asked. You’re gone!If you want to become a citizen you have to pay a stiff fine, pay back taxes, and learn english.
  • PolyMarket: 60% : 40%
  • Jeff Bezos on Washington Post – TRUST
    • We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility.
    • Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election. No undecided voters in Pennsylvania are going to say, “I’m going with Newspaper A’s endorsement.” None. What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. 
    • While I do not and will not push my personal interest, I will also not allow this paper to stay on autopilot and fade into irrelevance — overtaken by unresearched podcasts and social media barbs — not without a fight. It’s too important. The stakes are too high. Now more than ever the world needs a credible, trusted, independent voice, and where better for that voice to originate than the capital city of the most important country in the world? 
  • Regulations: From Chamath: They also issue thousands of regulations annually, which far exceeds the number of laws passed by Congress during its biennial term. Given that these regulations touch nearly every aspect of American life today and the vast majority of federal employees within the agencies are.
  • Remember the Whales, Sharks and Seal studies from SpaceX.  

Recommendations:

#73 – Bend OR, Markets, Google, MSFT, Meta, XAI, US President Read More »

#72 – Tesla! AI, Self-driving, Waymo, Govt over-reach

Oregon Duck Football

Beat Purdue 35-0. Ranked #1. 

Markets

Nvidia

  • All time highs again.

Netflix Earnings

  • New record high. $752 today, but reached $772.  
  • Maybe running ahead of itself a little, but still pure streaming play with no end of growth in site. 
  • Q4: Tyson, Football, Squid…

Tesla Earnings

Tesla up almost 22% today. At $260. High was 410.

Sandy Munroe set me straight! I was very wrong about the Tesla AI event. 

  • Investor Deck
  • Everyone should simply listen to the Earnings Call
  • Elon said 20-30% growth next year. 
  • Full autonomy approved and ride-hailing in CA and TX in 2025. 
  • Safer than humans by Q2 2025
  • Full scale production of CyberCab by 2026. No steering wheel and no pedals. Big screen for movies and comfortable. 
  • Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in Q3 in the U.S. (behind only Model Y and Model 3)
  • Increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3
  • Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised)4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12
  • Two key points coming here:
    • Ability to learn. 10k miles per intervention. 
    • Optimus!!! 
      • Dexterity movement. 22 degrees of freedom. Human = 27. Doorknobs.
      • Think about the AI real-world functionality. 
      • Most advanced humanoid robot by a long-shot! 
      • Only company that can scale manufacturing. 
      • Optimus will be most valuable part of company. 
    • The Services and Other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3, growing over 90% year-on-year. Sequential growth in gross profit was driven mostly by higher gross profit generation from supercharging, service center margin improvement and higher gross profit generation from Parts Sales and Merchandise. Our Supercharger network continued to expand in Q3 with over 2,800 new stalls in the quarter, a 22% growth of the network YoY. 6700 Charging stations! 
      • Under-Appreciated!!! 

Financials:

  • A lot of talk about the “machines” that build the machines. Most advanced factories in the world! 
  • Energy revenue up 52% YoY and Services up 29% YoY. 
  • Gross profit up 20%, with revenue up 8% (depressed by car sales revenue). 

Remember. Not a “Car” company. AI, Robot and Energy. 

Uber

  • Demand aggregator?

Self-driving cars

WSJ on Waymo and San Francisco, LA, Phoenix and Austin.  Audra mentioned this to me. Driving Jaguars. 300 vehicles in SF. 

  • McKenna Dixon, a nurse in the burn unit at a local hospital, takes Waymos instead of Lyft or Uber whenever she calls a ride. She works the overnight shift and said she takes Waymo to or from work a few times a week.“I’ll just get in the car, start my music, recline my seat back and close my eyes the whole ride home,” the 27-year
  • Waymo is on a marketing blitz that includes social-media ads promoting the privacy of its cars for date night
  • Also going to partner thru Uber app.  
  • Competition is good and will keep regulators in check. 
    • Google Waymo. 
    • Amazon: Zoox. 
    • GM: Cruise.

Googles Waymo Now Obviously the Leader in Self-Driving Cars   🤣

Lot’s talk tech: 

Waymo uses a combination of sensors and software to enable autonomous driving:Sensors: Waymo’s vehicles use a suite of sensors, including cameras, radar, and lidar, to provide a 360-degree view of the world around them:

Tesla: Cameras.  

ALL GOOD!! Hope they both succeed tremendously! 

Tesla tech very different and more advanced. 

You’ve seen Elon carrying a sink into Twitter to make a visual pun “Let that sink in”, now we have a 20′ high fork in the road right in front on the newly added section to Gigatexas 

Government Overreach 

CA Electric Bill

  • $1300/ month. 3000 sq ft home with 4 people.

Recommendations:

#72 – Tesla! AI, Self-driving, Waymo, Govt over-reach Read More »

#71 – Oregon Ducks, 529s, Nvidia, XAI, RoboTaxi, NFLX, Crypto

Bettina’s Fall/Winter 2024 Fall Fashion Show

Oregon wins 32-31 over Ohio State

Exploiting loophole in rules. NCAA to close loophole.

  • In the National Football League, the clock reverts back to the original time on a 12-man penalty — that is not the case in college football.
  • 10 seconds to go. 3rd and 25.
  • Put an extra defender on field. Then either:
    • (a) Buckeyes make a play and decline penalty. Or
    • (b) Penalty accepted, and 4 seconds off clock. Only 5 yds gained.
  • Now only 6 seconds on clock and need 10-12 yds to make field goal more realistic.
  • Time more important than yards.

529 Plans and Markets

  • Fidelity or Vanguard. Done.
    • Wealthfront: couldn’t find the underlying portfolio holdings?
    • Holdings are WAY too conservative.
  • 6000/month &6% or 7&7. Gets you between $200-$250k.
  • 529 Rollovers?
    • Can’t roll it all to a Roth. $35,000 lifetime.

RoboTaxi – We-Robot Event – Tesla

  • Elon key note.
  • Stayed in LA at Burbank Hotel. Nice.
  • Elevator operator analogy.
  • Cyber Cab unveil. Below $30k. No wheels or pedals. Production in 2026 (optimistic).
    • Inductive charging. No plug.
  • Fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in CA and Texas in 2025. Model 3
  • Van that can carry up to 20 people or packaging.
  • Optimus
    • Serving drinks and interacting with everyone there. Rumor is some human involvement.
    • My interaction with Optimus. Sub-optimal
    • Should cost $20-30k.
    • Still thinks it will be biggest product ever of any kind. Everyone will want an optimus “buddy”.

Nvidia and XAI:

  • Jensen Juang on Brad Gerstner Podcast.
  • 100m AI assistants to aid his workforce.
  • Jensen talking to Brad: https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1845481395625304331?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g
    • “Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish.
    • “Easily the fastest super computer on the planet”.
    • Normally 3 years to plan and 1 year to set up.
    • That is superhuman – There’s only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.”
  • From Pierre Ferragu

Hiive

  • Can buy SpaceX and XaI there.
  • Sometimes with major conditions, like annual fee and “carry” of 10-20%.

Netflix Earnings: Strong.

Crypto

Best asset class returns in 5 and 10 years…not fair to go back further?

  • How much to own?
  • Why?
  • And where to hold it/ how to invest in it?
  • IBIT and ETHA.
  • Tight correlation to underlying assets.
  • Managed by iShares/ Blackrock, so probably good controls in place.
  • Fees are reasonable.

Recommendations:

  • Wife: Citadel Diana on Amazon

#71 – Oregon Ducks, 529s, Nvidia, XAI, RoboTaxi, NFLX, Crypto Read More »

#70 – Stock Market, Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Elon & Tucker

Markets

Interest rates down. Money market from 5.3% to 4.7% 

Get in now or wait? 

CAPE Ratio still high at 35. 

S&P 500 basically at all time high.

Mutual Funds! High Fees!

Many mutual funds charge very high fees and over 90% under-perform their benchmark.

Many funds charge 0.80% – 0.90%. Add that to your advisor fee of 1% and you are paying almost 2% to finance professionals. Why??

See below. Over 90% of mutual funds under-perform their benchmark.

Inflation

Milton Friedman on inflation

Basically need to balance the budget. Almost $2 trillion dollar deficit in 2024 YTD alone.

Netflix

Stock all time high around $730. 

Up 49% YTD, compared to S&P500 at 23%

Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell said Netflix “is a clear leader in streaming,” according to The Fly. He upgraded the company to overweight from neutral and boosted his price target to $800 from $650. 

  • TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge raised the firm’s price target on Netflix to $820 from $775 while maintaining a buy rating on the shares.
  • Netflix (NFLX) is expected to benefit from a long runway for revenue growth and a deepening competitive moat, Morgan Stanley said in a report Thursday.

The report also pointed to above consensus expectations for operating leverage and EPS.

“Our analysis of Netflix new 1H24 engagement report reinforces our bullish view,” Morgan Stanley said, adding that the latest engagement report is backing the “Netflix content advantage,” referring to its original programming, international content, and the value of its content library.

Following “peak TV” and recent strikes, Hollywood’s new normal favors Netflix, with reduced competition for content and media studios open to licensing again, the report said. It said the ad-tier introduction would also help raise revenue.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $820 from $780 while reiterating its overweight rating.

Apple 

At $228 vs high of $234. 

  • Downgraded by Jeffries.
  • Is Apple Intelligence a thing?
  • Iphone is 50% of sales
  • Is Iphone 16 enough?

My thesis:

  • Entire family uses. 
  • Customer service is insanely good!! 
  • All photos there. 
  • Ear buds. 
  • Security!

Amazon

  • $187, was around $200. 
  • Not sure how you bet against Amazon. In 2023, Amazon was the third largest digital ad publisher in the United States, behind Google and Facebook. Amazon’s global ad revenue reached $49 billion in 2023, which is nearly triple its 2019 result.
  • Fabric of life: Everyday we get a package. 
  • First place I go to search/buy. 
  • Free returns. Easy. 

Microsoft

Newsom bans voter id requirements.

Elon Musk on Tucker

  • 23.30 on is Epstein list discussion. 
    • Videos. Diddy and Epstein. 
  • 28.00 – How will they let X continue? Lawfare!!  Illegal to discriminate asslym seekers, but can’t hire as SpaceX. Point is DOJ is weaponized. 

 

Cuban on All In Podcast. 

Monsters on Netflix

Slow Horses (called it White Horses before)

Wife watching “Troy: Fall of a City”

#70 – Stock Market, Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Elon & Tucker Read More »

#69 – Diddy, Markets, PE Ratios, NY Mayor, SpaceX, Meta

Life

Yoga life.

  • College admissions: 
  • Tulane:
    • Tuition and Fees: $69k
    • Housing: $11k. 
    • Meals: $8k
    • Books: $1k
    • Total: $88,000. * 4 = $352,000
  • Wow. College can be very expensive!

Diddy

https://youtu.be/NKMtZm2YuBE?si=irc0uxpLLHbHpBjE&t=53

What’s up with Diddy? 

  • His fashion label, Sean John. Not a bad name
  • The rapper is “going to fight this with all of his energy and all of his might,” and during a court hearing argued that the so-called freak-offs — marathon sexual productions that prosecutors say involved hired sex workers and women coerced to perform sexual acts for the gratification of Combs and others — were consensual, if unconventional. “Is it sex trafficking?” he asked in court last week. “No, not if everybody wants to be there.”
  • Lot’s of tapes recordings. So be careful if you go to a sex party. Know you’re getting recorded. Be cool with it. 
  • Authorities say they seized “more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricant

Markets

Everything is up. S&P 500 up 20% YTD.

As a reminder: 10%: Double in 7 years. 7% double in 10 years. 

What is PE or Price to Earnings?  PE definition and explanation

  • When you make an investment and pay cash you’re looking to receive more cash ultimately than you put in. 
  • Price to Earnings Ratio. 
    • Value of company; i.e. Market Cap. Divided by Earnings (12 months). 
    • Example: 
      • Company is valued at $100m. Earns $5m per year. PE = 20. 
      • Could think of it as 20 years to get your money back thru earnings. 

Cape Ratio

Cape Ratio (like PE) average of top 500 US Companies since 1950 is about 20. Now it is at 35. Seems high right? Don’t be surprised if there is a 10-20% correction in next 6-12 months. 

NY Mayor

Didn’t toe the line and he is paying the price. 

Eric Adams indicted. 

Bill Ackman explains. 

Eric Speech

FAA Hates SpaceX

Tesla and SpaceX

  • Lies and stupidity by FAA head. 
  • I somehow got invited to Tesla event!?

Meta

Orion Glasses 

Good AI strategy. 

Can they do hardware?

Netflix

All time high. 

Still the best pure streaming play. 

Southwest

Recommendations:

#69 – Diddy, Markets, PE Ratios, NY Mayor, SpaceX, Meta Read More »

#68 – Markets, Interest Rates, AI, Netflix, SpaceX

Personal

  • Yoga
  • Golf Lessons

Markets – All time highs

Stock Market Investing

  • S&P500 up 20%
  • VGT up 19%
  • Dividends/value up 11%. 3.36% yield
  • Best Retirement Investments: Dividend paying ETFs: like SCHD or HDV

ETF Investment Strategies

  • VGT: you’re up 2.7x. $100k = $270k
  • VOO: up 2x  = $200k
  • At 7% annualized return = double in 10 years. 
  • At 10% annualized return = double in 7 years. 
  • At 20% annualized return = double in 4 years

Impact of interest rates on investments

  • Fed just cut by 0.5%. First cut since 2020. I.e. Covid. 
  • Current federal-funds rate is at 5.25% to 5.50%, 
  • 2.00% to 2.25% by year-end 2026.

So what does this mean? 

  • Money Market returns will go down. 
  • Mortgage rates should come down. 
  • Credit card payments down. 
  • Car loans down. Good for Tesla. 

Government Debt per WSJ

According to recent data, interest expense currently makes up around 13% of the US government budget, representing the third largest spending category behind Social Security and Medicare.

Demand for AI

I’m trying to use AI. 

  • University research. 
  • Moved table in PDF to excel. 
  • Asked for an amortization schedule. 
  • Asked for references in prior podcasts. 

Listen to Larry Ellison explaining the crazy demand for AI. Who’s spending? Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, Tesla, SalesForce, and many more. 

Netflix:

  • All time high.
  • I still think its recession proof! 
  • Seems like Q4 subscription #’s should be HUGE! WHY?  
  • New events:  Boxing: Tyson and Jake Paul
    • The fight, which will be held over eight two-minute rounds, will now take place on November 15 at the At&T Stadium in Texas.Tyson, 58 is 30 years older than Jake. 
    • Squid game: Squid Game Season 2 will premiere on Dec. 26, The success of Squid Game on Netflix led to a 4.4 million subscriber increase in the third quarter of 2021. Most-watched series: Squid Game became Netflix’s most-watched series and the most-watched program in 94 countries.
    • NFL Football x-mas. Netflix has an early Christmas gift for you — but it won’t fit under the tree. On Dec. 25, 2024, we’ll be the global home of the NFL’s two Christmas Day marquee games: The Super Bowl LVII-winning Chiefs will face the Steelers at 1 pm ET; then at 4:30 pm ET, the Ravens will take on the Texans. 

Tesla

  • Tesla Semi: PepsiCo drivers love it. PepsiCo said today that their drivers who operate the company’s Tesla Semi trucks have reported that, after driving the electric truck, they don’t want to go back to driving a diesel truck.
  • Pretty flat for last 4 years. I think it will pop. Needs to demonstrate real-world AI. resolution. 

Elon (SpaceX) on All In Podcast Summit

  • 15:40 on Fresh Water dumping and $140k fine. Lot’s more discussion on how to implement the Government Efficiency Commission. 
  • Defense Dept budget vs interest. 
  • Inspiration
    • Uncrewed landing to Mars in 2026 
    • Crews in 2028 if successful (and if government gets out of way). 
    • Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years

Recommendations:

 

#68 – Markets, Interest Rates, AI, Netflix, SpaceX Read More »

#67 – Kids 401k, Markets, Govt inefficiency, Nvidia, SpaceX

Life is short. Have perspective. Find your purpose. Have fun!

Trump & Kamala Debate: Boring and horrible. Name calling. Accusations. Nothing interesting or intelligent.

Markets:

  • YTD: S&P up 16%.
  • Tech (QQQ) up  15%.
  • High Quality up 10%.

Building Wealth for your kids:
My Blog analysis on Building wealth for kids.

  • 529s and Roth 401k.
  • Small investments over time create generational wealth.

Nvidia

Government vs Capitalists: 

  • All in at 56.30: Friedberg: Do you want someone who has lived in government or is not a government operative? Career civil servants vs. capitalists.
  • 1.17.40.  Government spending is 50% of GDP. So could say ½ of people are employed directly or indirectly by government. Free market system is finished if there are more “takers” than “makers”.

Government Efficiency (oxymoron):

Donald Trump on Government efficiency commission:

From WSJ: Trump Proposes 15% Tax Rate for Some Companies and a Role for Elon Musk in Government

Elon Musk has said that all laws/regs should be auto-repealed after 20 years or some time. Otherwise we’re in a web of bureaucracy.

Getting a Loan from DOE is near impossible. I have a story.

Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi day on October 10. 

SpaceX

The company confirmed that the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying the crew reached its peak altitude of 870 miles.

That distance surpassed the record set by NASA’s 1966 Gemini 11 mission

Also!!! 60 day delay for Starship launch. 

  • “Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space.”
  • https://www.spacex.com/updates/

Nuclear Power imperative by Bill and Brad.

Recommendations:

Bryson DeShambeau on YouTube:

Podcasts:

TV: Wyatt Earp on Netflix. 

#67 – Kids 401k, Markets, Govt inefficiency, Nvidia, SpaceX Read More »

Building Generational Wealth for Your Kids

Build Wealth and Financial Literacy for your Children

You don’t have to be independently wealthy or rich to set your kids up for financial success. In fact, most parents with modest income can take steps early on to set their children on a path to wealth and financial acumen.

Each of your children should have (3) investment accounts:

  1. 529 College Savings Plan

  2. Custodial Roth IRA

  3. Custodial Brokerage Account

WHY? Besides the obvious idea of investing and saving, this is an opportunity to educate your children on the power of saving, compounding returns and fiscal responsibility. 

Disclaimer: Everything discussed below is high-level and you should read up on each plan in detail and consult a financial expert with questions.

529 College Savings Plan

A 529 plan is a phenomenal tax strategy, because all of the gains over the life of the investment are not taxed. 

The Cost of a 4-year university degree can vary greatly, but let’s assume $50,000 per year or $200,000. 

I tell people to try to invest $500 per month per child from the day they are born. That is $6000 invested per year over 18 years. At a modest 6% growth rate that investment would grow to about $200,000. That works out to $108,000 of money invested that grows to $200,000, so $92,000 of appreciation (returns, gains, income, etc…) that the government will not tax. 

 

Visually the assumptions above look like this: 

  • $6000/ year for 18 years at 6% growth. 
  • $108,000 invested.
  • $92,000 return/income NOT TAXED. 


Not all kids are destined – nor should they be – for 4 year college. This money can also be used for many trade profession and education/certifications programs:

  • Electrician
  • Plumber
  • Carpenter
  • Dental Hygienist
  • Cosmetologist.  
  • The list goes on… 

Lots of good info here if you want to read up more on 529s. I’ve also written on some of my personal experiences in the past: 

Custodial ROTH IRA

A Roth IRA is a retirement account that you put after-tax money into, but when you draw on it in retirement the gains are not taxed. So similar characteristics of a 529, but for retirement.

If your child has earned income – and can be from babysitting, mowing lawns, etc, so not necessarily W2 income – then they or you as their parent can contribute up to their income or $7000 per year. 

Just as working adults should be contributing to a 401k or IRA, this is a vehicle to enable our children to start saving for retirement before they head off to be adults on their own.

It’s called a “Custodial” because the parent controls the account until it is legally transferred to the child between ages of 18-25.  

Let’s say you were able to contribute $5000 to their account from the age of 15 to 22 and average 8% annual returns. That investment would grow to ~$1m by the time they are 60 or $2.3m at age 70. Not bad! A parachute for your children.

Further this money is NOT TAXABLE because it’s in a Roth IRA. 

The above assumptions look like this: 

  • $5000/ year for 8 years at 8% return. 
  • $40,000 invested.
  • Over $1 million dollars to your child in NON TAXABLE income.

The chart above is a little crazy; had to check the math a couple of times. This is the power of compound interest!! 

Custodial Brokerage Account

A “custodial” brokerage account enables your children – or you on their behalf – to invest money in Money Market Funds, ETFs, stocks, bonds, etc…. It’s basically the same as your brokerage account, except that you control it, until it legally passes to your child at age 18-25 (like the Roth discussed above). 

So if your kids are earning money (or maybe you’re just gifting it to them), they/you can allocate some to the brokerage account and have a larger universe of investment options:

  • Money Markets (earning ~5% in 2024). 
  • Short term Certificates of Deposit.
  • US Government treasuries and bonds. 
  • Stocks, Mutual Funds, ETFs, etc… 

Why? Many kids are earning money and it’s sitting in their checking account earning nothing. A simple 5% money market account would earn your kids an extra $500 per year on $10,000.  

Finally, and very important, it’s a construct or mechanism to teach financial literacy to your kids. 

LONG STORY SHORT: Invest now for your kids.

Bonus: 

I was so blown away by the Roth returns, I was thinking what if your kid then gets a job and keeps maxing their contribution at the current $23,000/ year level through age 60 (which by the way is oversimplified and can be much higher with employer match, etc…).  

Here is Roth from parents and 401k from kids: 

  • Roth at $40,000 from parents.
  • 401k pre-tax at $23,000 per year until 60. 
  • $6-10 million for kids around age 60-65.

Note: You can’t even see the “Roth Investment” in pink in the chart above, because it is so small to the overall portfolio, but resulted in huge “Roth Earnings”.  

In closing

I just want to emphasize that the ideas and discussion above is quite simplified and does not contemplate all sorts of technical rules nor tax assumptions. The numbers could be much smaller or much higher by changing assumptions. 

The point is to highlight: You can create great wealth by simply starting early and being consistent. And it’s a great way to help your children attain financial literacy and independence! 

Building Generational Wealth for Your Kids Read More »

#66 – Markets booming, Mag 7, Netflix, Govt Policy, Saving for kids

Yacht sinks:

  • Living the dream. Anchored off Sicily coast in late summer. Storm sinks you in early morning. Dead. 
  • 15 people rescued, including 1 year old girl. 
  • 6 dead. 5 found in sunken boat. 
  • 184ft $35m yacht. 
  • 165 ft deep.  In tact. 

Investments and Markets

  • Markets booming. year-to-date
    • S&P: 20%
    • Tech: 18%
    • Div: 14%
    • Bitcoin up 40%! 
    • Netflix up 44%. 

Netflix!

  • All time high. $700. 
  • Jake Paul, Tyson, Squid. NFL. 
  • Excited for Wyatt Earp.

Mag 7:

  • I can’t think of a reason to bet against any of these? 
  • Apple: all i use
  • Microsoft: embedded in every corporation (redwood). 
  • Nvidia: Years ahead of competition. 
  • Meta: Open source AI. 
  • Google: Break it up! Worth more! 
  • Amazon: Only place I buy from. 
  • Tesla: Robot in my kitchen prepping my coffee and other beverages. (10 years).

The AI Race:

Politics:

  • Interview was good, but Trump a little too salesy and should focus more on conversation. 
  • Where is Kamala. 
  • Obama at DMC speech. Pretty dynamic. 
  • Trump on Theo Von vs Trump on X-spaces with Elon. All in Podcast
    • Talked a lot about drugs and alcohol. 
    • Trump has never smoked or drank alcohol. Pretty remarkable. Brotherly advice (me on the otherhand…)

Saving for your kids:

  • Probably need $250,000. Rule of 7&7. $7000/yr at 7% over ~18 years. 
  • Roth IRA. Brokerage Account. 

Retirement Strategies:

  • My simplest rule is $5m. Why? Most people can live pretty good on that. 5% return, $250k/year.  
  • Age 45 have $1m. Double in 7 and again 7: at 60 you’re at $4m. 
  • Very stressful when you don’t have an income. 

Recommendations:

  • Work your ass off.
  • Hit the gym every day; or at least break a sweat.
  • Dinner with kids.

#66 – Markets booming, Mag 7, Netflix, Govt Policy, Saving for kids Read More »

#65 – Government Policy, VC’s, Tesla, Markets

Life updates:

  • 20 years of marriage!! 

Why talk about Politics and government? 

  • Has a profound effect on business.
    • U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023
      • Texas netted the largest number of movers in one-way U-Haul® equipment in 2023, marking the third consecutive year it has finished atop the U-Haul Growth Index.
      • Florida ranks right behind Texas among growth states for the third year in a row, followed by North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
      • For the fourth year in a row, California reflected the largest net loss of one-way movers. 

The role of Government

“Government has three primary functions. It should provide for military defense of the nation. It should enforce contracts between individuals. It should protect citizens from crimes against themselves or their property. When government– in pursuit of good intentions tries to rearrange the economy, legislate morality, or help special interests, the cost come in inefficiency, lack of motivation, and loss of freedom. Government should be a referee, not an active player.”

Milton Friedman

Government inefficiency

Example: Contained within the 2021 infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program authorized more than $42 billion in grants, to “connect everyone in America to reliable, affordable high-speed internet by the end of the decade.”

  • Not one single household connected. 
  • Starlink could do now for a fraction of the cost. Its entirely obvious. 
  • Among several examples, the senators noted that NTIA’s BEAD proposal “requires subgrantees to prioritize certain segments of the workforce, such as ‘individuals with past criminal records’ and ‘justice-impacted […] participants.'”
  • Bill Gurley and Brad Gurstner on FCC

Ben and Mark Show: Key Silicon Valley leaders turning on Democratic policies. They have Billions $ at stake and do not want to talk about politics, but its paramount to the future of tech and innovation in the US.  

  • For example:
    • Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence.
      • If we don’t lead someone else will
      • Refusal to legislate, yet punitive…no banking. Gensler
      • AI: Regulating too soon. Need to wait for development.
      • Energy: Europe is the ghost of xmas future. Need to be energy independent!
      • Tax: Structure! Unrealized Gains! – Not rate discussion.
        • This IS IN the budget proposal. Marketed as a “billionaire tax”. 
        • Unrealized gains kills startups. How do you pay cash with PAPER money!?!? 
        • California. In peak years (2021 for example) up to 50% of tax revenue from top 1000 persons!
    • Regulatory agencies are punitively blocking startups from being acquired.
    • And, the government is currently proposing a tax on unrealized capital gains, which would absolutely kill both startups and the venture capital industry that funds them.
  • Stone-walled by Dems. But both friends and supporters of Obama.
    • He was curious and interested in business. 
  • Jump the shark moment was attacking Zuckerberg for donating Billions to charity; claiming it was a “tax dodge”. 
  • Finally in their words: 

Trump or Kamala?

  • Key to understand is that supporting Trump or Kamala is that its a support for POLICY. 
  • Kamala
    • The entire “switcheroo” is odd. No primary for the dems? I like Dean Phillips. Also good interview on All-In. I also really liked Tulsi Gabbard and RFK; who was literally kicked out of the party. 
    • What policies to support? I don’t know. Hasn’t spoken or taken questions since nomination. 
  • Trump:
    • Capitalist and pro-business. Freedom of speech. 
    • Reasonable border policy. Graduates with degrees get auto-matic green card. 
    • No more forever wars. 
    • Supports independent energy. We will be on oil forever. Just listen to Jamie Dimon. 1:20 mark.
      • Pro energy for Oil, Gas AND nuclear. 
      • LET ME BE CLEAR. We can and should move to renewable: but we need Transition plan! 
    • Tough on crime. Not even tough, but basic security. 
    • Abortion: Will NOT create a federal “ban” or policy. Will stay at the states. Listen to this. From All-In podcast. A must listen to really understand him.  28:13. 

Like him or love him, he was shot in the head/ear and survived and yelled “fight, fight, fight”. As Elon said “you can’t feign bravery”. People died. Even Zuck is on Trumps side at this point. 

Tesla

Stocks and Economy

  • Market Correction.
    • On Monday the 3rd day of “down”. Market down 8-9%, Tech 13%, Nvidia 28%:
      • AI fatigue. Lack of results that generate revenue. 
      • Japan monetary policy. Yen Carry Trade. 
      • Middle East instability
      • AND everything is over-priced!  
      • CAPE at 35. Since 2000 Average is 27.
        • 1999: 44
        • 2009 after GFC: 13
        • 38+ at end of 2021
        • Corrected to 27 mid-2022.
        • 30 probably reasonable. 
  • Stocks I still like:
    • Netflix (17% YoY rev growth to $19.6b and 27% margin)and Tesla (big surprise). 
    • Netflix: NFL, Squid Game 2 and literally everything you need/can watch. Profitable and growing steadily. 
    • All Mag 7 and now Meta looking really smart with “open” AI in Lama. 
    • Microsoft: Open AI is unbelievable. 
    • Tesla. You already know. 

Recommendations:

  • All In podcast with Trump. 
  • Rogan and Jordan Peterson
  • Andreesen Horowitz. 
  • Presumed Innocent. – Apple
  • Your Honor – Netflix (airplane qualification)
  • Land of Bad – Netflix (airplane)

#65 – Government Policy, VC’s, Tesla, Markets Read More »

#64 – SpaceX, Tesla, NFLX, etc.

Apr 22. 

Wow. Been awhile. Volleyball. Mexico. 

Markets:

If you lived thru 2021 you’re a rockstar and welcome to our first year down 

YTD US up 7% and Tech up 20%. 

Since Dec, 2021 US down 14% and Tech down 20%

I know many and myself buying 6 month 5% bonds. But maybe I should pay down the mortgage?

Recession looming. San Francisco vacancy at 33%. 15 sales force towers.??

National Guard in SF

Netflix:

$690 – $166 – $328. 232m paid subs. 

Same analogy I make to legacy media. Disney (closest streaming competitor) lost $1b on streaming. Amazon makes no money except on AWS.

Key statement: “We are pleased with the current performance and trajectory of our per-member advertising economics. In the US for instance, our ads plan already has a total ARM (subscription + ads) greater than our standard plan.”

Winding down DVD.com

Tesla:

Margins are down. But

  • Ford Motor said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year.
  • Tesla Net Income $2.5b in the quarter! 
  • Punchline: How can these companies scale. Innovators dilemma.
    • Charging network, insurance. Battery tech. Lithium refining! 

Model Y best selling car in Europe. 2nd best in US behind Pickups. 

Cyber Truck in Q3 and FSD this year? Definitely by 2025. “Our growing fleet of FSD Beta users has an exponential impact on total FSD Beta miles driven – with over 150 million miles to date and counting.”

Service and existing fleet. Service is margin. Razors and blades! : 59.08:

Pricing: Sit around in a room and make informed decision 1/week. 

SpaceX:

Everyday Astronaut Thread

Antonio Gracias

Mainstream media perspective. 

So you going to bet against this company. Has anyone else landed a rocket? Dec 2015. 8 years ago. Blue Origin in 2021. 

Recommendations: Night Watch, Succession, Full Swing

#64 – SpaceX, Tesla, NFLX, etc. Read More »

#63 – TSLA/Twitter (Elon interview), Mkts, Crypto, Xmas songs

Markets

S&P 500 -16%, Tech QQQ -30%, Utra tech! ARKK Tech -65%

  • 4.6% on 6 month treasury.
  • Inflation. 7.1% YoY.  
  • Fed raised 0.5%. So now 4.25% – 4.5%. Probably going to 5.0 – 5.5%.
    • Fastest in history. 

My Mortgage. 4.5% and adjusting again to 2.25% + LIBOR. 

Baby its cold outside! 

Crypto

  • SBF in US and out on bail!  $250 million
  • Caroline and Wang charged. Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr. Bankman-Fried was charged with last week. Ms. Ellison, 28 years old, pleaded guilty to seven counts, including wire fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to her plea agreement, which was signed Monday. Mr. Wang, 29, pleaded guilty to four counts, including wire fraud.
  • Caroline interview. 

Tesla & Twitter

  • Twitter Spaces. 1 hour interview with 38,000 listening.
  • Tesla stock down 69% YTD. $400b company. 
  • Now it could triple in 2023. Buffet will probably take a serious look. 
  • Elon has inspired a CEO and silicon valley “builders” renaissance. 
  • Elon to step down as CEO. Mr. Beast!? 
  • San Francisco to investigate worker conditions. Sleeping at work! 
  • From WSJ: Redundant managers, along with managers who have opaque responsibilities, are in essence professional critics. 

Tesla catalysts:

All they want for Christmas is to stop that Mariah Carey song

Netflix 

  • Last week, Netflix said “Wednesday” had crossed 1 billion hours viewed, only the third title to do so within 28 days of its release, joining “Stranger Things 4” and “Squid Game.” 
  • Netflix Training classes 
  • See Rich Greenfields tweet about eyeballs

Recommendations

  • White Lotus.
  • Wednesday
  • The Peripheral on Amazon. 
  • Mr. Beast interview on Rogan. Saw it on a list of most liked podcast episodes. 
  • Country xmas on Spotify. 

#63 – TSLA/Twitter (Elon interview), Mkts, Crypto, Xmas songs Read More »

#62 – Crypto/FTX/SBF, Twitter

Markets

Down 17% was down 25%. 

Meta job cuts. 11000 13%. Brad Gerstner letter. A summary of some of the layoffs this year…

  • Twitter: cutting 50% of its workforce (estimated 3,700 jobs).
  • Facebook ($META): cutting 13% of its staff (11,000 jobs), its largest round of 

Crypto

SBF is a FRAUD! Bernie Madoff style! 

FTX lends money to Alameda!! $10b loan on $16b in assets.  

 FTX meltdown. FTX. Alameda. Binance. Coinbase. Nothing safe. 

  • FTX has a prominent list of backers such as Sequoia Capital, BlackRock Inc., Tiger Global Management and SoftBank Group Corp.
  • Sam Bankman-Fried. $8b shortfall! He was worth $26b…apparently. 
  •  Tom & Gisele. Hedgefunds
  • FTX Arena in Miami. Home of Heat. FTX on umpire uniforms. 
  • Celeb lawsuits: https://deadline.com/2022/11/tom-brady-giselle-bundchen-ftx-lawsuit-larry-david-steph-curry-crypto-1235174541/
    • In the case of Curry, the NBA legend admitted in another tongue-in-cheek-ish TV spot that he was not that knowledgeable about crypto. He added, looking at the camera: “I don’t need to be. With FTX I have everything I need to buy, sell, and trade crypto safely.”
  • FTX’s new chief executive“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,”  “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”
  • SBF is 2nd largest democratic donor this election cycle. $37 million. 
  • SBF parents. raised by two Stanford professors who specialize in law and taxes.
  • Caroline Ellison.
  • Related party loans:
    • $300m from last $450m investment to SBF.  
    • Alameda Research had $4.1 billion in related-party loans. Among those were $1 billion to Bankman-Fried, $543 million to FTX Director of Engineering Nishad Singh and $55 million to FTX Digital Markets head Ryan Salam

Twitter

Lays off ½ of 7500 workers. 

Had to bring some back.  

The whole world shit-posting that the site will go down now. Tesla AI runs with 150 engineers. 
Ligma and Johnson.

#62 – Crypto/FTX/SBF, Twitter Read More »

#61 – Twitter, Meta, Amazon

Markets

Down 20%. Was 25%, but rallied up 5% just this week.  

GDP growth 2.6% (-1.6 and -0.6 in Q1 and Q2). So no recession…currently. 

Apple. +7%

Amazon. -14% 

Meta. -25%

Amazon. AWS insanely profitable. All other biz combined is break-even. Sales of $127b and Operating Income of only $2.5b (2%).

  • Story: AWS $5.4b. All Other: $-2.9b. Everything losing money!! 
  • Tesla: $5b on $21b. 

Meta: meltdown. 

“Meta’s results last night was an absolute train wreck that speaks to pervasive digital advertising doldrums ahead for Zuckerberg & Co. as they make the risky and head scratching bet on the metaverse,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a report. 

Revenue flat to Q4 20 at $27b. NI 4.3 vs 7.8!! 

Viral Video (Play audio)

Twitter: what “products” does a 23 yr old product manager manage? 

  • 71% off high. 
  • Mkt cap $265b. Was 913b.
  • Headcount growth! The number of employees is up over 3x from 25k to 85k employees in just the last four years! 
  • Wants everybody to work in MetaVerse!? 
  • Brad Gerstner letter.
    • To accomplish this goal, we recommend a three step plan that will double FCF to $40 B per year and focus the company’s teams and investments:
      • Reduce headcount expense by at least 20%;
      • Reduce annual capex by at least $5 B from $30B to $25B; and
      • Limit investment in metaverse / Reality Labs to no more than $5B per year.

The Netflix rebound.

  • Hammered too hard initially. 
  • Reached “profitability” and growing. No one else has.
    • Disney will. 
    • Amazon spending too much! 
  • Advertising more appreciated. Not affected by Apple tracking. A rich ocean to fish in. 
  • Comcast. Peacock has 15m subs and lost $614m in the quarter. 

Twitter takeover. 

  • Walks in with Kitchen Sink. Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!”
  • Fires CEO and CFO and head lawyer. $100m in severance pay
  • Denies that he’ll fire 75% of workforce. 
  • Tesla engineers reviewing code. 
  • Employees walking out with boxes. Hoax? 
  • Just tweeted: Twitter will be forming a content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints. No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.
  • People threatening to leave.. Where? Truth Social, Parler? 

Tesla: 

  • Cruise vs Tesla FSD in SF. 

Recommendations: 

  • Upload on Amazon

#61 – Twitter, Meta, Amazon Read More »