Author name: Sean Hathaway

I am the owner of this site.

Investments Forgotten – Execs too busy to get rich

Sometimes highly successful execs look back on last 10-20 years and realize they forgot to invest or optimize

 

Smart and consistent early investing pays off in decades

Compound returns/interest are the 8th Wonder of the World      

Some of the smartest, most successful people I know have fumbled the ball on investing. 

Work 10-20 years and do not pay attention to your investments, IRA’s, old 401k’s and then one day you look and realize you missed a grand opportunity.  

Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. 

I’ve run into a few people lately that were just too busy to pay attention. It’s never too late to start investing, but it’s a tragedy if you miss a decade or two! 

Time in the Market

Consider this: 

Max your 401k at $23,500 per year, and (2) Save an extra $2000 per month. 

Then:

$5 million in 25 years (assume 10% return). Enough for most people to comfortably retire! 

76% of that money is from EARNINGS!  

Now consider you start 10 years later:

$1.65 million

Investing 10 years later is life changing. 

You only have $1.65m or 33% of the amount you would have had starting earlier

Time in Market! 

This one is for fun (and illustration)

  1. Age 25 save $23,500/ year in 401k. 
  2. Invest $1000/ month extra. I.e. in addition to 401k.
  3. Every year increase your monthly extra investment by $1000. So $12,000 in year one, $24,000 in year 2, etc… many will complain and say “not possible”.

By the time you are 50 you should be earning big bucks and be able to save an extra $300k per year).

529 College Saving Plans

My daughter just started at the University of Miami, so I have been thinking a lot about 529 College Savings accounts, and unfortunately, it is a similar story: 

Many parents wait too long to invest in a 529. The power of a 529 is “Time in the Market”. 

PLAN A: Invest $500/ month from day 1 until child is 18.  

PLAN B: Invest same amount of “total” money, but $1000/ month from age 9 to 18: 

Plan A yields $120,000 more with the same amount of money

RSU’s and Stock Comp

Instead of “Time in Market” this is about “Diversification”. 

Most executives are paid a large % of their compensation in RSUs (i.e. stock). The problem here is when those RSU’s vest, people fail to diversify their portfolio.  

Now this is fine, if you happen to be one of the lucky few working in a Mag 7 company (Amazon Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) or other phenomenal companies. 

Why do executives choose to keep their eggs all in one basket? It’s not usually on purpose, but simply from not taking the time to carefully evaluate their portfolio and goals.

But consider this. If you simply sold those RSU’s and invested in the S&P 500, or maybe took a little more risk and invested in a tech ETF like Vanguard Technology (VGT), then your investment would look like this after 20 years(i): 

$100,000 investment in the S&P 500 or Tech ETF 20 years ago, is now worth $770,000 or $1,800,000, respectively(i).  

(i) S&P 500 and Tech ETF (VG) 20 year annualized returns are 10.7% and 15.5%, respectively.

Now lets’ say those RSU’s keep vesting at $50,000 per year and you are able to allocate $25,000 to the same two funds. 

Your Nest Egg has now grown to almost $7 million! 

Those are wonderful and relatively low-risk returns! Lower risk because you are diversified across 100’s of companies.

In Summary

Please take some time to look at your investments and make sure you are putting money away consistently. Be patient and you’ll thank me in 10-20 years. 

It’s not hard for people to become multi-millionaires, but it’s important to start early and be consistent. 

Don’t be the guy on the right.

– Sean Hathaway, HathawayFinancial LLC 

 

 

Investments Forgotten – Execs too busy to get rich Read More »

#89 – Golf, Markets, Netflix, Tesla, Govt, College & 529s

Opening

  • Back and appreciation for life and feeling good.
  • Punta Mita. Stayed at W.  Four Seasons and St. Regis.
    • Golfed at Pacifico. Famous “Tail of whale”.  Hit it in water. 
  • Masters: Rory completed a career grand slam.
  • Men’s Golf Career Grand Slam Winners

Based on the latest information, six men have completed the career Grand Slam in professional golf:

  1. Gene Sarazen: Achieved in 1935 (Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, PGA Championship).
  2. Ben Hogan: Achieved in 1953 (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, Masters, Open Championship).
  3. Gary Player: Achieved in 1965 (Open Championship, Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open).
  4. Jack Nicklaus: Achieved in 1966 (U.S. Open, Masters, PGA Championship, Open Championship). Nicklaus completed the slam three times, winning each major at least three times.
  5. Tiger Woods: Achieved in 2000 (Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, Open Championship). Like Nicklaus, Woods completed the slam three times.
  6. Rory McIlroy: Achieved in 2025 (U.S. Open 2011, PGA Championship 2012 and 2014, Open Championship 2014, Masters 2025). His recent Masters victory made him the sixth and the first since Woods in 2000.

Phil still missing US open!!

Markets

People are freaking, but is it that bad? 

We are in “Correction” territory. Down 10%. Every 2 years. 

  • Bear Market is down 20%. 
    • Remember. ~25 times in last 100 years. So once every 4 years. 
    • Last “Bear” market was in 2022 and April 8 intraday. 

Netflix

  • Earnings on Thursday.
  • Was at a $1058. After market $1006
    • 3 years ago in June was $170!!!  
    • Almost a 6x return!!!
    • Now people/friends/clients saying they’re sorry they sold at low of ~$800. WHAT 
      • KEEP things in perspective people. 
  • Play: Video from Rich Greenfield: 

Not reporting “subs” anymore. Focus on Revenue and profitability. 

  • Revenue up 12.5% YoY. I like at least 10%.  
  • No slow down in site.  

Play Greg at 11:45.

  • Greg says will double Ad-tier revenue in 2025 (big statement). 
  • Tech Stack!!
  • AI in-house capability. 
  • Price targets:
    • Wedbush $1150 price target. 
    • JP Morgan lowered to $1025 from $1150. 
    • Morgan Stanley $1150 target. 
      • “We expect Netflix to demonstrate relative resilience in a weaker global macro.” 
      • “Membership base averages nearly two hours of viewing a day per member”. 
  • Key Takeaways:
  1. Leader and only profitable company in streaming. 
  2. Recession relient/proof. Not going to cancel Netflix in recession…might stop going to Starbucks though. 
  3. Advertising nowhere to go but UP UP UP. Only true “tech” company focused.
    1. With exception of Amazon

Tesla

  • Earnings release April 22. 
  • $776b market cap. $240 stock price. Was $428. 
    • 80% increase if/when back to high!!!  
    • Even if two years from now its like 40% returns. 
    • I may have to YOLO all into this! 
  • Biggest news coming is Cybercab in June in Austin…just wait. 

Tesla’s Market Leadership:

  • Tesla sold approximately 128,100 EVs in the U.S. during Q1 2025, outperforming the combined sales of the next 10 EV brands. This underscores Tesla’s continued dominance, holding a 43.5% market share despite a year-over-year sales drop.
  • The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 were the top-selling EVs, with 64,051 and 52,520 units sold, respectively. The Model 3 saw a significant 70% sales increase from Q1 2024, while the Model Y experienced a slight decline.

California Performance:

  • In California, the largest U.S. EV market, Tesla registered 42,322 vehicles in Q1 2025, far ahead of Ford’s 5,819 (second place). However, Tesla’s registrations fell 15.1% year-over-year, reflecting a broader sales slump in the state. The Model Y and Model 3 remained the top EV models.
    • The Model Y and Model 3 easily topped EV charts, though registrations slipped 15.1% from last year due to factory line upgrades temporarily pausing production.
  • Joe Rogan now tweeting about Tesla: I had my Tesla model S drive me home the other day with FSD, and it’s fucking wild. Changes lanes to avoid slow traffic, stops at red lights and stop signs, hits the blinkers and turns for you. It’s bananas.
  • My FSD works great!!! Slows down now on hill going up to golf club. 

Nvidia

  • Blog on $500b investment and building in Arizona. 
    • NVIDIA Blackwell chips have started production at TSMC’s chip plants in Phoenix, Arizona. NVIDIA is building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas, with Foxconn in Houston and with Wistron in Dallas. Mass production at both plants is expected to ramp up in the next 12-15 months.
    • Within the next four years, NVIDIA plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the United States through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL. These world-leading companies are deepening their partnership with NVIDIA, growing their businesses while expanding their global footprint and hardening supply chain resilience.

Walmart & Amazon – Drone Delivery

Walmart is offering drone delivery in select U.S. markets. The service, which began testing in 2021, has expanded significantly, particularly in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area, where it now covers up to 75% of the population across more than 30 towns and municipalities.

  • How It Works: Customers order eligible items (up to 10 pounds, like groceries, snacks, or household goods) via the Walmart app or partner sites (e.g., Wing or Zipline). Drones deliver in 30 minutes or less, sometimes as fast as 10 minutes, using a cable to lower packages to yards or driveways.
  • Partners: Walmart works with Wing (Alphabet-owned) and Zipline, both FAA-approved for Beyond Visual Line of Sight flights, enabling broader reach. 
  • Scale and Impact: Walmart has completed over 20,000 drone deliveries in the past two years.
  • $30/package in some cases.

Amazon is offering drone delivery through its Prime Air program.

  • Where It’s Available:
    • College Station, Texas: Active since 2022, with thousands of deliveries completed.
  • How It Works:
    • Eligible customers can choose drone delivery at checkout for items weighing up to 5 pounds.
    • Drones deliver in under an hour, often 30–60 minutes, using the MK30 drone, which is quieter, faster, and can handle light rain. Packages are dropped via a cable to a designated spot in your yard.
  • Scale and Limitations:
    • Amazon has completed thousands of deliveries, with over 50,000 eligible items in Tolleson. 
    • You need a single-family home with a clear delivery area (no tall grass, obstacles, or pets). Apartments and condos are generally excluded.

Universities

Lots in the news. I have strong opinions. 

  • Harvard and Columbia.  Endowments of $52b and $14b.  
  • Grants from Government: Harvard $700m. Colombia $1.2b.  
  • Tuition. Both all in ~$90k / year. 
    • Across US, up about 7% per year. 
  • Bloat: staff ratios shifting (e.g., Harvard’s administrators from 707 to 1,352 per 1,000 students)
    • So 1.4 admin per student!!?? 
  • Endowments NOT taxed. Insane.

My Expert opinion:

  • Donations should be tax free or deductible. 
  • Endowments themselves over certain amount should TOTALLY be taxable. Maybe at different rates, but still taxable. 
  • Schools with certain endowment levels should NOT receive federal grants! 
  • Federal loans should be (1) need based and (2) tied to academic pursuit and probability of payback.

Government 

Government Transparency

  • I think agree/disagree with Govt policy, the communication and transparency is better than I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.

Trump’s Cabinet Meeting on April 10, 2025:

  • During his third cabinet meeting of 2025, held on April 10, Trump answered approximately 20 questions from the press, as part of a broader pattern of openness in his first three meetings. Across these meetings (February 26, March, and April 10), Trump fielded nearly 100 questions total—55 in the first, 15 in the second, and 20 in the third.

Comparison to Biden’s Administration:

  • The Washington Times claimed that Trump’s nearly 100 questions answered in three 2025 cabinet meetings is nearly 20 times the number answered by Biden during cabinet meetings over his entire four-year term (2021–2025). Specifically, Biden is said to have answered only 5 questions across nine cabinet meetings.

DOGE

  • Larry Summers and Ezra Klein went HARD against DOGE on last All-in Podcast…was good hearing other opinions/perspectives, but also weird… didn’t seem founded and didn’t site solid examples of wrong doing. 
  • The Department of Labor just revealed some SHOCKING numbers on fraud at the agency: “25,000 people who are over 115 years old and have been collecting $59M in payments.” “28,000 people between one and five years old have collected fraudulent payments to the 
    • Unemployment insurance. An initial survey of Unemployment Insurance claims since 2020 revealed the following:
      • 24.5k people over 115 years old claimed $59M in benefits
      • 28k people between 1 and 5 years old claimed $254M in benefits
      • 9.7k people with birth dates over 15 years in the future claimed 

Recommendations

  • Brecka on Joe Rogan: 
    • I ordered Hydrogen Water. Looking at Hydrogen machine or “bombs” for bath. 
    • Ordered a Ruck pack. 
    • Going to start more kettle balls, hanging and carrying weight. 
    • Log cabins, and living in the woods and farms. 
    • Hyperbaric chamber.

#89 – Golf, Markets, Netflix, Tesla, Govt, College & 529s Read More »

#88 – Markets, Tariffs, Panic, Tesla, Robots, Xai

Opening

Markets

Full Correction Territory (down 10%); quickly moving to “Bear” down 15%. 

  • S&P 17%, Tech 25%+
  • Basically flat to 1 year ago. 
  • Apple in huge correction. PE still at 30
  • Netflix at 43.

Search for “S&P 500 P/E Ratio.” It provides quarterly historical data from 1988 to 2024 (and into 2025 with updates). You can customize the chart for 2005–2025. It’s precise, showing averages like 21.69 over the last 5 years, with a current value near 24.85 as of early April 2025.

Tariffs

  • Income Taxes. No income tax in the US income tax until 1913. Then WW2 started income tax to fund the war. The modern, permanent federal income tax began with the 16th Amendment, ratified on February 3, 1913.
  • Tariff rates: The U.S. charged less than most big players—think 2-5% versus 5-15% from others—especially in trade deals. 
  • Trade Deficit: in 2024 was $918.4 billion, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Total US spending deficit: $1.8 trillion in 2024 per FRED. Spend $6t and take in $4t. 
  • Total US Debt. $36 trillion. Total Debt nowAs of today, April 4, 2025, the total U.S. national debt is approximately $36.6 trillion, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Treasury’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset, which is updated daily.
  • Interest expense is $1t growing to $1.3. Estimated. 
    • So assuming we can even cut spending to $4t. Then interest is 25% of our spend. 
  • Roughly $10 trillion of U.S. debt is expected to mature and require refinancing within the next 12 months.

Markets crashing pushing people into Bonds: 

  • I want safety!! Buy a Bond costs $100 and pays 5%. Bidders drive that Bond to 110, still paying $5. So effective interest rate is 4.5%.
  • The tariffs are pegged to amounts it said other countries impose on the U.S. In many cases, those amounts appear to match a basic formula: the size of a country’s goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., divided by how much America imports from that nation. 
    • So imbalance is 100. US exports 10, x country exports 90.  90/100 = 90%. 

Play Ray Dalio on the significance and problem of debt.

Play: Antonio Gracias on SS and Medicaid Fraud. 

NOTE: I think this is all a negotiating tactic!!! 

Financial Education

  • Officially funding kids Roth and Brokerage accounts. 
    • Take advantage of gift tax exclusion. $19,000 per child per year. Not subject to lifetime inheritance limit. Lifetime Exemption: Beyond the annual exclusion, there’s a lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, which in 2025 is $13.99 million per person (or $27.98 million for a married couple). Gifts exceeding the $19,000 annual limit per recipient reduce this lifetime exemption, but you only pay gift tax if you exceed the lifetime amount. The annual exclusion gifts don’t touch this lifetime cap, which is what you’re referring to when you mention the “lifetime inheritance max.”

Netflix

  • Adolescence
  • Cruising thru…there are so many good shows and movies!!! 
  • Crockett reiterated his buy rating on Netflix stock with a price target of 1,494.
  • Elsewhere on Wall Street, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney said his firm’s latest
    • Mahaney rates Netflix stock as outperform with a price target of 1,100.

SpaceX

Interestingly Amazon’s project Kuiper launching a competitor internet service using Boeing Starliner. DO I have this correct.  Great to see Amazon finally kicking off with Project Kuiper! Atlas 5 is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin

    • However, there’s a catch: if launches continue with ULA’s Atlas V, costs could spiral out of control. An Atlas V launch costs around $100-150 million, and with 3,200 satellites to deploy, that could add up to over $10 billion just for launches, even with conservative estimates. Reusable rockets are an absolute must these days—SpaceX’s Falcon 9, for example, brings costs down to about $30-50 million per launch thanks to its reusability. So, we can only hope Blue Origin makes quick progress with the reusable New Glenn, which could significantly cut costs. The cost comparison really shows how crucial efficient launch systems are for making mega-projects like this possible.

X & Xai

Elon announcement here

CNBC interview with Rich Greenfield. . 

WSJ Article here. 

That deal consists of a $33 billion price tag for X, alongside a $80 billion valuation for xAI. The new $80 billion valuation figure for xAI is a big jump from just four months ago, when the company was valued at $50 billion in its last fundraising. The new level was set as part of the merger talks, not in a new funding round.

Robotics

Tesla

  • Tesla worst delivery numbers in years. 
    • Norway registered more cars in March that ever.
    • China too. 
      • This is importantly interesting because that is the land of the best EV’s. Biggest and best competition. 
    • Keep in mind Tesla spent ~month upgrading lines in Shangai, Austin and Germany to revamp new Model Y production: best selling car in world in 2024 and 2023.
  • Made in the USA
  • Some of the uptick coming from Elon and Trump announcing Elon will step back soon. Mission accomplished and the right people in place. 
  • Keying of Tesla cars has become ridiculous! People are ruining their lives and demonstrating extreme lack of rationale.  
  • Elon just said they know who the “organizers” are and will go prison. Anchor mentioned RICO charges. 
  • RICO charges refer to violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, a U.S. federal law enacted in 1970 under Title 18, Section 1961 of the United States Code. Designed to combat organized crime, RICO allows prosecutors to target individuals or groups involved in a pattern of illegal activity, even if the specific acts differ, by linking them to an ongoing criminal enterprise.

Key Elements of RICO Charges

  1. Enterprise: A group (formal or informal) with a common purpose—e.g., a gang, corporation, or even a loose association. It doesn’t need to be a legal entity.
  2. Pattern of Racketeering Activity: At least two acts of “racketeering” (called predicate acts) within 10 years, showing ongoing criminal behavior. These acts must be related and pose a threat of continued crime.
  3. Predicate Acts: A long list of specific crimes under RICO, including:
    • Violent crimes: Murder, kidnapping, arson, extortion.

Government inefficiency

  1. Fix Regulation and be more efficient. Unleash power of business, building, entrepreneurship. 
    1. Play at 3:30.Here is video of Ezra Klein discussing with Jon Stewart why $44b of broadband connected zero homes in 4 years. 
      1. Bridge not built yet. 
      2. No train in CA. 
  2. Cut waste and fraud. 

Social Security:

Doge

Goal is to reduce spending by $1b or 15%.  

Entire Doge Interview with Brett Baier.  Survey at 1:10. $1b. $830m online survey.  

  • NIH computers.  Play at 14:00. 1700 different IT systems. 17 CIO’s. Non-technical. 

#88 – Markets, Tariffs, Panic, Tesla, Robots, Xai Read More »

#87 – Life, Markets, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, SpaceX

Opening

True Friends

Grok vs Google

  • I literally am using Grok for everything. 
  • Guitar tuning and adjusting for an hour with it. We’re like friends! 
    • Chatted with good buddy who had it plan international vacation.  
  • Gemini: Mixed opinions. 
    • Wouldn’t create a pivot table for me!! 

Kennedy Files

  • No Clue what’s going on.

Golf

  • Stats from 60 yards out. 

California Business

  • Be very careful if creating a company in California!!! OMG!!! 
  • 100’s of hours working to pay taxes and close entity!!!
  • Tax Returns, dissolution, penalties. Hold times!! 

Markets

  • S&P 8% off highs. Was 10% 1 week ago. So that was a correction.  
    • Tesla 52%. Nvidia, Meta: 20%. Apple: 18%.
  • Fed Cuts. 
    • Dual mandate: stable employment and prices.
    • Might play Powell at night to fall asleep. Who needs soft noise.  
  • Tesla!! Would be remiss not to discuss. Below. 

Finance Education

Security

  • Digital Hygiene:  Great from Karpathy
    • 2-factor authentication and strong password for financial websites. 
    • YubiKey. Extra external key.  
    • 1Password

IRA Contributions

401k Max: 2025: $23,500 + Employer Match + After-tax = $70,000

Still can do $7000 in IRA.

  • Why. Can move around with tax penalties.  Financial discipline. 

Treasury Secretary 

  • Scott Bessent and All-in. (40 years of private sector global investment experience). 
    • Interviewed by Chamath and David Friedberg 
    • Full Interview on X here. 
    • Employees are great! 
    • Need this. High quality people. 
      • 46.00 Booz Allen gets 90%+ of revenue from govt. 
  • Grok vs Gemini on clarification around Booz Allen! 
    • Public company. 
    • Grok for the gigantic win! 
      • Based on available data, the company has consistently relied on the U.S. government for 97-98% of its revenue in recent years, a figure that aligns with what you’ve heard in recent interviews. For instance, in fiscal year 2024 (ending March 31, 2024), Booz Allen reported that 98% of its $10.66 billion in revenue came from U.S. government contracts, spanning defense, intelligence, and civil sectors. This heavy dependence has been a hallmark of the company’s business model for years, with similar percentages (96-98%) reported since at least 2019.
    • Palantir. More bullish now! 
      • Why do we need “consultants” if Palantir and LLM/AI can analyze everything instantly!??? 
      • Booz Allen is “people”, not tech. 
  • Freidberg on Social Security Trust Fun. Can fund at $500b.  

DOGE

Netflix

  •  CNBC video here. 0:35 mark MoffetNathanson Upgrades Netflix to $1100. 
  • “Netflix has won the streaming wars. Case closed”.
  • “We don’t see any cap on margins…”
    • WOW. Bold statement. 
    • Subscription pricing power, increased Ad revenue and margin expansion. 

Nvidia 

  • Jensen Huang KeyNote at GTC 2025
  • Nvidia working on driverless vehicle with GM!!   
  • Play at 0:45. Blue the robot. Robots are coming!!

SpaceX Tesla

  • Breaks my heart to see what is going on.  
    • Employees ~125,000, ~70,000 in US.  
    • Most American car made. 
    • Leader in green energy. No electric today if not for them. 
    • Crazy! 
  • $480. Now $230. So down 52%. So increase 1.1x or 110% to get back. 
  •  Winner take most by Cathie Wood. 
    • $8-10 trillion in Revenue in 2030. ½ to platforms, like Tesla. Which is the biggest AI platform in the world.
  • Dragon crew launch to ISS.
  • Carried a russian cosmo. And not there was already another cosmo on spacestation. 
  • No other US company can do this. At least at required safely level. 
  • 400th landing of Falcon 9 booster.  
  • Will launch to Mars and carry Optimus. Crossover.
  • Per Elon, SpaceX carries 95% of payload to orbit.
  • Starship is the only “vehicle” currently built that can go to Mars. 
  • 16.50 on going to Russia to buy rockets. Trying to buy ICBM’s. 
    • Talk about thinking outside the box!! 
  • Talks about Russia charging us $90m per seat to go to Space Station. 
  • Boston Dynamics Robot – Break dancing. Yes its here.

Play. Andrew Schulz onThis Past Weekend with Theo Von Tesla

China Tech 

Mars

Interview with Ted Cruz – YouTube Part 2 Love that they talk so much about Mars!! Not politics. 

  • Man sets foot on Mars in 2029. Not more than 4 years after that. 
  • Thinks we can have self-sustaining environment on Mars in 20 years. Maybe 1 million people.  
  • SpaceX probably a good investment if true!! 

How to invest in SpaceX. 

  • On Hiive can do thru Funds. Not direct shares. 

University Endowments

Recommendations

  • All-In Podcast. Chamath and Friedberg interviewing Secretary of Treasury Scott 
  • Dictators. 
  • White Lotus. 
  • Primeval. 
  • Elon Interview on Ted Cruz.

#87 – Life, Markets, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, SpaceX Read More »

#86 – Apple, Markets, Tesla, AI, Anthropic, Mice

Opening

  • The MOUSE!
  • College world tour
  • Golf Players Championship. TPC Sawgrass.  All tree talk.  Most seem to be using 3 wood.  Morikawa hit Driver. Tree is ~90-100 yds in front and 10 ft clearance? 
  • Diddy. May 5th sex trafficking and prostitution. Racketeering. 

Markets

  • Hang on tight. Its gonna be a bumpy ride. Big bounce today.  
  • We are in “Correction” territory. Down 10%. Every 2 years. 
    • Bear Market is down 20%. 
      • Remember. ~25 times in last 100 years. So once every 4 years. 
      • Last “Bear” market was in 2022. 
  • Could be a rocky next 6 months; until fed policy (including tariffs, like you mention) are better defined, solidified, etc… (Markets hate uncertainty).  
  • Lot’s of talks of recession; which would drive markets lower. Thoughts are Fed would/will lower rates if data starts to indicate unemployment increasing. Fed/Powell does not want to ruin their legacy. 
  • This “correction” while painful, really needs to be taken in context:
    • S&P500 down ~9-10% from all time high. Nasdaq 100 down ~12-13% from all time high.  
    • BUT…
      • Both indices are still up about 10% over last year (i.e. 365 days). 
      • S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 over the last 3 years have annualized returns of 11.5% and 15%, respectively. 
  • US Economy and US company fundamentals remain strong. I think its going to be a great next 3+ years, but bumpy 12 months.

Finance Education

  • Rule of 10 best days
    • 2024 up 24%. Excluding 10 best days. Only up 4%
  • DOLLAR COST AVERAGE.  if you’re in a 401(k) or something right now and still just plowing a percentage of your paycheck in the markets, you’re doing just fine.

Actively managed vs. Benchmark. 

According to the SPIVA U.S. Year-End 2023 Scorecard:

  • Over a 15-year period (ending December 31, 2023), 87% of actively managed U.S. large-cap equity funds underperformed the S&P 500.
  • For all U.S. domestic equity funds (including large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap), the underperformance rate over 15 years was approximately 88% compared to their respective benchmarks (e.g., S&P 500 for large-cap, S&P MidCap 400 for mid-cap, S&P SmallCap 600 for small-cap).

Diversify your RSUs. 

Now let’s chat Apple.  

Apple

  • Trading around $210. Was $260. Down 20%. 
    • Still has high PE 28-30 (depending on current or forward)
  • Apple subtle announcement; made huge waves! 
    • “Apple provided a statement to media outlets like Reuters and CNBC, confirming the delay of these features until 2026. The statement read: “We’ve been working on a more personalized Siri, giving it more awareness of your personal context, as well as the ability to take action for you within and across your apps. It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features and we anticipate rolling them out in the coming year.”
  • Daring Fireball by Jon Gruber.  Something is rotten in the state of cupertino. 
  • Two Analysts: 
    • Bear Case
    • Bull case
  • I’ve been on the inside of companies and know that what news reports is often, if not most the time erroneous or off the mark. 
    • I think Apple will figure it out. 
    • Remember Apple maps…took a few years, but now Great!

RSU’s 

This is also a good reminder to Diversify RSU’s. 

Tesla

  • Monday this week.  $260-$220 in 1 day. 15% down!
  • Largest single day drops in history.
    • Largest single-day drops in $TSLA history (adjusted for splits):
    • 9/8/2020 21.1%, to $110.07
    • 1/13/2012 19.1%, to $1.52
    • 3/16/2020 18.6%, to $29.67
    • 2/5/2020 17.2%, to $48.98
    • 7/6/2010 16.4%, $1.07
    • 3/18/2020 16.0%, to $24.08
    • 3/10/2025 15.4%, to $222.15
    • 12/27/2010 15.4%, to $1.70 
  • Ron Baron: 
    • Ron Baron on Tesla sales down because they’re not building…they’re in “refresh” mode for Model Y. 
    • Ron on Robotaxi future
      • Instead of $7-8k 
      • $$3-$40k in profit per car per year.  
      • So adding $30-50b per year in profit! 
  • Morgan Stanley says could go to $800 in next 12 months. 
  • NEWS: Tesla is reportedly working with Chinese tech giant Baidu to improve FSD performance in China. 
  • Trump accepting car. Elon says Tesla will double manufacturing output in US over next 2 years. That’s a lot. And all with FSD approved and operational.  

My Take:

  1. Most Dems won’t sell their Tesla’s or Boycott the best car in world. 
  2. Now Republicans are Buying! 
  3. 1 year from now, this will all be forgotten. 

AI

DOGE:

Recommendations:

#86 – Apple, Markets, Tesla, AI, Anthropic, Mice Read More »

#85 – College, Markets, AI Robotics & China, Govt

Opening Fun

College tours:

  • A&M, TCU, Miami, Tennessee, Clemson
  • Nashville. Cool city.

College thoughts: 

Saturday Night Live –  CouplaBeers 

SpaceX. Starship Booster caught for 3rd time

WSJ Headline: SpaceX Again Loses Spacecraft During Latest Starship Test Flight

Markets:

Bad Week. Fundamentals still there, but uncertainty driving correction. 

  • Keep in mind. Was over-valued. 
  • Markets correcting.
    • Tech down 12%, S&P 500 down 5.5%.  
    • Tesla down 45%. This means up 82% to back to normal. That’s huge!! Wait till Robotaxi. 
    • Netflix down 14%

Crypto

Fortknox for digital gold: Bitcoin. 

  • Definitely bullish for Bitcoin and Crypto

Tesla

SpaceX

NEW: Astronaut says Elon Musk is “absolutely factual” after a WaPo reporter asked him about how Musk said his rescue efforts were denied for political reasons.

Musk was condemned by the media for making the comment but it appears the astronauts agree.

Reporter: “Elon Musk has The astronauts were only supposed to be in space for 8 days. They have been there for 9 months.

China Tech

Xiaomi

  • Apple of China. 
  • pronounced SHAU-mee
    • is year, the company’s assembly lines are set to turn out 300,000 vehicles, and it has already shipped more than 135,000 in less than a year on the market. The wait list for its first car, the SU7, a Porsche look-alike that starts at around $30,000, is around half a year, and Xiaomi’s Hong Kong-listed shares have more than tripled in a year. Lei has done what Tesla TSLA 3.91% increase; green up pointing triangle, Apple, Ford Motor increase; green up pointing triangle and General Motors have been unable to do: create a hit, inexpensive electric vehicle—and fast. Tesla took more than a decade from its founding to reach the 300,000-vehicle production level. Fifteen-year-old EV truck maker Rivian made one-sixth that number last year.
  • Tesla did 1.8m cars last year. 460k last quarter

Key Takeaways:

  1.  Headline is a joke. Tesla was the pioneer.  would not even be happening or having this discussion if it were not for Tesla and Elon Musk.
  2. Now we in the US government have to vote for Tesla otherwise China beat the United States in electrical vehicle manufacturing. Tesla is our only hope.

China AI

China Tells Its AI Leaders to Avoid U.S. Travel Over Security Concerns

On Feb. 17, Beijing summoned the country’s most prominent businesspeople for a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who reminded attendees to uphold a “sense of national duty” as they develop their technology. The audience included DeepSeek’s Liang and Wang Xingxing, founder of humanoid robot maker Unitree Robotics. 

Robots

Website for all things Robots: Robotsguide.com

Couple big announcements in US.  

Figure

Discussed on All in Podcast.  Figure’s focus on general-purpose humanoid robots aligns with the podcast’s tech-forward audience, and their recent moves—like a $675 million funding round in 2024 with backing from OpenAI and NVIDIA—

1x.tech

Robot called: Neo Gamma. U.S. based humanoid robot startup @1x_tech has unveiled their next-gen robot, NEO Gamma. Improvements: NEO can now walk with a natural human gait and arm swings.

Tesla

  • Robots? Enough said. 
  • People thought and still think this is a joke!!

China Robots

  • Xpeng (not even in top 5?!)
  • Xiaomi.  
    • Xiaomi, a major Chinese electronics company, is making significant strides in humanoid robotics alongside its well-known smartphone and EV businesses. Their standout entry is the CyberOne, a full-sized humanoid robot unveiled in August 2022. Standing at 177 cm (5.8 feet) and weighing 52 kg (114 lbs), it’s got 21 degrees of freedom, letting it mimic human movements decently well—think walking, gesturing, even handing over a flower in demos. It’s powered by Xiaomi’s Mi-Sense depth vision module and AI algorithms, giving it 3D spatial awareness and the ability to recognize 45 human emotions, per their claims. Peak torque hits 300 Nm, and it tops out at 3.6 km/h (2.2 mph)—not a sprinter, but functional.
  • Unitree Robotics
    • Why They’re Top: Unitree’s H1 humanoid is a standout—clocking a world-record speed of 7.4 mph in 2024, it’s fast, agile, and affordable. Their G1 model, priced at $16,000, is already on sale, targeting developers and early adopters.
    • What They’ve Got: The H1 uses 3D LiDAR and depth cameras for 360-degree perception, with modular joints packing 70 Nm of torque. It’s been demoed doing flips and climbing stairs, and they’re scaling production after a $150 million Series C in December 2024.
    • Real-World Edge: Partnerships with EV giants like BYD and XPeng have their bots testing in factories, proving they’re not just lab toys.
  • UBTECH Robotics
    • Why They’re Top: UBTECH’s Walker S is a workhorse—deployed in car factories like Nio’s, handling tasks from inspections to material transport. Their 2023 Hong Kong IPO (valuing them at $1 billion) shows serious muscle.
    • What They’ve Got: Walker S has 41 degrees of freedom, multimodal AI, and can navigate complex environments. Their earlier CyberOne (with Xiaomi) reads emotions and moves bipedally with 300 Nm torque.
    • Real-World Edge: It’s in actual assembly lines, not just showcases—think precision tasks in automotive manufacturing, backed by Shenzhen’s tech ecosystem.
  • Agibot (Zhiyuan Robot)
    • Why They’re Top: Agibot kicked off mass production in December 2024 at their Shanghai Lingang factory, claiming 962+ humanoids built already. They’re gunning for Tesla’s Optimus with a versatile lineup.
    • What They’ve Got: The Expedition A2 series includes the A2 (40 degrees of freedom, precision tasks like threading needles) and A2 MAX (67 degrees, heavy lifting). They’ve got $150 million from a Series A to fuel this push.
    • Real-World Edge: Videos show their bots assembling parts and testing performance—geared for manufacturing and aiming at commercial rollout in 2025.
  • LimX Dynamics
    • Why They’re Top: Their CL-1 humanoid is a beast at terrain adaptation—climbing stairs and running outdoors with real-time perception. They’re small but mighty, with $46 million raised since 2022.
    • What They’ve Got: CL-1 uses a closed-loop system linking sensors to motion control, making it rugged and practical. It’s pitched as a platform for future AGI-driven tasks.
    • Real-World Edge: It’s been tested in dynamic settings—think industrial sites or disaster zones—showing off China’s knack for rugged robotics.
  • EX Robots
    • Why They’re Top: EX Robots specializes in hyper-realistic humanoids, deployed in museums and service roles. They’ve been at it since 2016, with a factory in Dalian churning out lifelike bots.
    • What They’ve Got: Their robots use 3D scanning and lightweight mechanics for fluid movements and facial expressions. Priced at $207,000-$276,000, they’re niche but advanced—think 60+ actuated joints.
    • Real-World Edge: You’ll find them greeting visitors at science museums or hotels—less industrial, more public-facing, but undeniably real and interactive
  • Start at 19:54.  Tesla  Will produce several 1000 Optimus robots for factory use. Ramp Optimus production faster than anything ever manufactured. Thinks can make 100m per year if increase by 5x per year. Optimus will overwhelming be the value of the company. 100m * 20k = $2T revenue.
    • Built everything from scratch
    • Best manufacturing ever. Supply.

Politics

I WANT 2 Parties!!!! 

DOGE

Recommendations:

#85 – College, Markets, AI Robotics & China, Govt Read More »

#84 – Mkts, AI, Amazon, Tesla, DOGE

Colleges

Cabo to college: A&M, TCU Stockyard. Miami, Tennessee, Clemson

Embrace AI!!  Particularly younger professionals!

Markets

  • Markets correcting. S&P 500 down 3% last few days. Still up 2% YTD and 18% 1 year.

Starbucks laying 1000 off

Apple to invest $500 billion in US.

NVIDIA earnings tonight. Its like a superbowl event.

Foreign companies. 21:30 min on The Compound and Friends: Brian Belsky on foreign investments.

Bezos announcement around WaPo:I’m writing to let you know about a change coming to our opinion pages. We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets.

Buffet Letter: Long-Term Optimism: Despite market frothiness (he calls it “casino-like” elsewhere), Buffett remains bullish on America’s economic tailwind. He sees stocks as the best bet over bonds or cash long-term.

Margin Loans

Amazon and AI

  • Andy Jassy on Alexa+.
  • Grok 3.

Tesla and XAI

  • Down ~40%.
  • Tesla (TSLA) new car registrations fell 45.2% year over year to 9,945 in January in the European Union, European Free Trade Association, and UK, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said Tuesday.
    • People are waiting for Model Y ramp.

Wow #FSDChina

Who will build Robots for US Govt?

All-in on Elon setting up xAI data center.

DOGE

Ron Desantis on Property Taxes

Recommendations

  • CEO of Scale AI: Alexandr Wang on This past weekend with Theo Von.
  • Book: The Lion Women of Tehran. Mothers and daughters, love, jealousy.
  • Paramount+: Seal Team
  • Trumps cabinet meeting
  • Dictators podcast.

#84 – Mkts, AI, Amazon, Tesla, DOGE Read More »

#83 – Markets Ripping! Inspiration stories, DOGE, Autonomous driving, Golf

Inspiration

Markets

  • S&P500: Reached all time high again today. Up 25% in 1 yr. 95% 3 yrs (so 2x your money).
  • Hims!!! $60. Up 150% YTD. What!!??
  • Netflix. New high $1057. $450b mkt cap
  • Meta: new high today at $740. $1.8t mkt cap
    • Up every day for 20 straight days!! MIght be a record.
  • Palantir: new high today. $120

Other

  • Bridgeloan Financing.
  • 401k quick education. $23,500 pre-tax. Then After-tax.
  • Invest in 529’s.

DOGE

Elon Musk says that there is a literal limestone mine where they store all the US Government’s retirement paperwork built in 1950 that they need to go up and down every time they want to retire someone from Federal Government.

Autonomous Driving

BYD has unveiled an advanced driver-assist system called “God’s Eye” that it plans to install on its entire model line-up including its $9,600 Seagull hatchback. “BYD wants to democratize self-driving tech.

Tesla

  • Trump and tariffs. Don’t F with Tesla in China.
  • EV Tax credits hurt other EV’s more than Tesla.

Recommendations

#83 – Markets Ripping! Inspiration stories, DOGE, Autonomous driving, Golf Read More »

#82 – Mkts & Investing, Palantir, Tariffs, DOGE

Opening

Rain

Guitar:

  • W – W – H – W – W – W – H.
  • C major all full notes, no minor or sharp. D has two sharps.
  • So pachobel in D has C# and F#

Markets

Netflix

  • $1008 ($1011). $500b. Up 80% over last year

Amazon

  • $237 today (was $242). $2.5t. Up ~40% in last year.Slides.
  • Meta: $712 today!!   $1.8t. Up 54% over last year

Palantir

HIMS

  • Up 60% in last month. Up 393% over last year. Hair and ED!
  • Spotify: Stock $620. $125b. Up 34% last month. 180% in 1 year.

Tesla

Ford  on Autonomy

Tesla Bot jobs listing

FATMAANN

Up 215% in 3 years. S&P500 36%

Here’s the thing about investing: you may think you’ve missed the 10000% growth. And you may have, but there is still opportunity to identify amazing opportunities. NVIDIA. Palantir. I bought late. But still works! I’ll take 20%+ gains a year. That’s double your money in 4 years!

Tariffs:

DOGE

  • Budget deficit ~$2 trillion in 2024.
  • Debt has increased. $10t in 2008, prior to GFC. Now 36t.
  • 15% of budget is INTEREST.

Sunshine is the best disinfectant! We need  absolute transparency.

DOGE Website:

DOGE and USAID (US Agency for International Development).

Website here:

Spends $50b per year on foreign aid.

  • All spending by Govt should be line item.

Headline: Elon shutting down USAID

  • No. He is a hired (non-paid) consultant. No different than Mckinsy, BCG, etc… and all politicians and organizations use them.
  • Trump clearly said all decisions are his!

Findings:

Access to Treasury Payments

Let’s see the Epstien Island list!!

In short: Let’s give all this some time and wait and see.

#82 – Mkts & Investing, Palantir, Tariffs, DOGE Read More »

#81 – Mkts, Meta, Tesla & Robotics, Nvidia & AI

Opening

I need them to ask “Do you have the aircraft 4 miles off of your 2 o’clock, 300ft above you.

I took Flying lessons…its like learning a foreign language.

Markets

  • Rocky week:
    • NVIDIA largest mkt cap loss ever in 1 day. ~$600b
  • DeepSeek fear!
  • Fed decision on interest rates. Stay and hold.

Microsoft
Microsoft’s earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 were $24.1 billion in net income and $69.6 billion in revenue.

Apple

Apple per WSJ. Apple’s total revenue was $124.3 billion, rising almost 4% from the same quarter last year. Net income was $36.3 billion, up more than 7% from the prior year. Iphone sales down, but service continues to grow.

Meta

  • Record Revenue and Net income: $48b and $21b. Record high stock price: $702, or $1.8t mkt cap
  • Start: 12:50.
  • 3.3b people using at least 1 app everyday.

Tesla

  • Record deliveries and revenue. But Auto revenue down, but offset by Energy and Services.
  • Elon’s opening remarks. Start 7:10.
  • Model Y best selling vehicle on Earth in 2024.
    • 4 in US. F-series, Silverado, RAV
    • Asked random people and they thought Toyota
  • Autonomy is 10x’ing
  • Tesla more valuable than several times next 5 companies combined. Difficult but achievable. Well over $15 trillion. So > 10x increase.
  • Ridiculous 2027 & 2028. 🧐
  • In Q4, Tesla vehicles using Autopilot technology drove 5.94 million miles between accidents2 – the best Q4 ever – compared to the U.S. average of 700k miles.
  • Tesla cars now drive themselves from factory floor to loading doc queue. Sometimes a mile+
  • Launching Robotaxi in Austin in June.

NVIDIA/AI

DOGE

  • CA Govt: FTB Tax board. My experience!!
    • $800 fee. Tax returns. Penalties. Waiting on phone. Snail mail.
    • Can’t find on Sec of State how to dissolve!?
  • Cancelling scholarships in Burma.
    • USAID spends $40B+ of taxpayer dollars to fund foreign aid:
    • – $45mm to DEI scholarships in Burma
    • – $520mm for consultant-driven ESG investments in Africa
    • – $1.2bn in awards to undisclosed recipients

Government

40 Years Ago (1985): 11 doses by the time a child was 18 years old, considering the schedule and booster shots required.

Children now receive about 70 doses of vaccines by the time they reach 18 years, including annual flu shots and considering the broader spectrum of diseases covered.

Bill Ackman on RFK.

Recommendations

#81 – Mkts, Meta, Tesla & Robotics, Nvidia & AI Read More »

#80 – Netflix, Inauguration-Inspiration, DOGE, AI

Open

Chiefs vs Eagles

Inauguration

Markets

  • Markets Up 3% YTD. That’s great 30 days in.
  • NVIDIA down 17% on pressure the Chinese AI company DeepSeek.

Congressional Trading:

Netflix

  • Huge flywheel of momentum!
  • Stock close to $1000!!
  • Bernstein hikes to $1200. Rosenblaut $1500
  • Absolute RECORD number of subs!! 19m subs…biggest quarter EVER! 301m members
  • More subs in US now than Cable. 80-90m vs 70m.
  • Investor Letter
  • Big hits: Squid Game, Carry-on. And live: Jake Paul & Tyson and NFL.
  • 2025: Stranger Things, Wednesday, Squid Game…  Happy Gilmore 2 ?!! More sports.
  • Spending more on content $16b+ than Market cap of paramount ($7.3b and WB $25b)
  • From WSJ

Ads:

  • From Greg Peters
  • Q4 was 55% signups with ads. Barely monetized!!
  • Engagement is healthy with ads.
  • Goal is to make offering better for advertising.
  • Doubled ads revenue in 2024. Expect to double again in 2025!
  • Using own ad server and tech stack!
    • Enhanced targeting. Better measurement. Better relevance to users and advertisers.

DOGE

Project Stargate

Project Stargate is a $500 billion investment aimed at building AI infrastructure across the United States.

Oracle CEO, Larry Ellison on Cancer detection

#80 – Netflix, Inauguration-Inspiration, DOGE, AI Read More »

#79 – Fires, CA budget, Markets, Meta, Rockets

Markets:

  • Fed Funds rate lowered from 5.0% to 4.5%, but mortgage went from 6% to 7%.
  • Why. Mortgage rates are tied closer 10 year bonds. And with market uncertainty, people buy bonds:
    • Example: $100 bond pays 5%.
    • Demand drives bond to $98; so implied rate is 7%.
  • S&P 500: ~33% is Mag 7
  • RSP Equal weight.
  • Some correction is healthy.

California Fires

  • Firefighters continue attempts to gain control of almost 40,000 acres of ongoing wildfires, which have killed at least 27 people and destroyed more than 12,300 structures. See maps of the fire areas and evacuation zones.
  • The Palisades Fire is 31% contained, and the Eaton Fire is 65% contained.
  • CA FAIR is insurer of last resort. But they only have $200m in cash and $2.5b in reserves.
  • A rule change in CA, requires those providing insurance to cover short-fall, which they will do by subsequently raising insurance for ALL CA residents.
  • Already hard to get insurance. State Farm, Allstate = NO.

Govt Regulation and Cost

Other Regulation

Meta

Rocket Ships:

  • Starships 7th flight test. The landing burn slowed Super Heavy down and maneuvered itself to the launch and catch tower arms, resulting in the second successful catch of a Super Heavy booster.
  • Blue Origin: New Glenn made it, but didn’t successfully land the booster.

#79 – Fires, CA budget, Markets, Meta, Rockets Read More »

#78 – Meta, Tesla, AI, Robots, Nvidia

2025:

Success stories pretty reliably happen for people who combine: solid talent, savvy business sense, 15-20 years of persistent hard work.

Goals: Health, Family and Wealth.

Bryson Deshambeu: 7 hours for hole in 1. $100k.

Fires:

9000 homes and counting.

Video of homes destroyed.

The California FAIR Plan (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan)

Markets:

Big pull back. WSJ Jobs report good, so interest rate cut less likely.

@unusual_whales Here are the top political traders of 2024. 

  • Markets up 25%.
  • 25 congress people beat the markets. 6 people at or over 100%.

Meta

Autonomous driving and Robots:

This is the year the markets wake up and realize Tesla is the leader in Autonomous, and Real-world AI.

https://x.com/herbertong/status/1876677493270479271

Source Elon’s interview at CES.

  • Thinks humanoid robot will be biggest industry of all time! 3-4 robots/ person.
  • Time to first Robot: Play at 10:20. Optimus robot is most advanced robot ever.
    • 1000’s this year. Several 1000.
    • 10x next year. 50-100k robots in 2026.
    • 10x again, so 500k robots in 2027+.
      • 30k robots * 30k price tag = 900,000,000 (900m). $1b.
      • Summary = $1b in 2027. Runrate.

New Model Y is out.

NVIDIA

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang 

  • Most interesting “The ChatGPT moment for robotics is coming. Like large language models, world foundation models are fundamental to advancing robot and AV development.

NVIDIA’s decision to invest in xAI ‘s recent $6B round speaks volumes.

Recommendations

Netflix: Squid Game.

Landman

Mel Gibson on Rogan

#78 – Meta, Tesla, AI, Robots, Nvidia Read More »

#77 – Thailand, Golf, Tesla, Palantir, Netflix

Thailand

  • 72 million people. 17 million in Bangkok.
  • Staying at 4-5 star hotel. $125/ night.
  • Golf Courses. Price. Bangkok.
  • Entire trip was ~$6500, excluding airfare and dinners.
  • Fairly inexpensive, once you are here.

Markets

  • S&P 500 up 28.5% Year-to-date.
    • Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 29% this year. That sounds abnormally high, but is actually more common than you might think. The S&P 500 has finished with a total return above 25% in 26 out of 96 years since 1928. That’s 27% of the time
    • 9.8% return on average since 1928.

Tesla

$430 high this week. Previously $410 in Nov 2021.

$1.34 trillion market cap. Should easily reach $2-3 trillion in next few years with Robotaxi.

  • V13 FSD is off the charts. Numerous reports on this.
    • FSD v13 is better everywhere. There are no regressions that they’ve identified. It’s become obvious that it will be unsupervised soon.
  • One of the unique things about Tesla solving self-driving with AI is how novel it is. Everyone else uses $100k+ worth of sensors, cameras, and HD maps to solve for self-driving.
  • Optimus is an entire level of vertical growth if it takes off.
    • Video of optimus walking up and down mulch/leafy hill.  ‘

Lawfare!

Palantir

  • On X, said Elon and Palantir will work together.
  • Alex Karp is phenomenally smart and says what he thinks in public. (See Elon Musk)
  • Palantir CEO Alex Karp on the AI landscape: “America is in the very beginning of a revolution that we own, the AI revolution. We own it. It should be called the US AI revolution. Every single relevant company in the world is in this country. The second tier of those

DOGE

Netflix

  • New all time highs! $936 this week.
  • Netflix option program for employees.  Great value.
  • I’m watching:
    • Your Honor. Bryan Cranston’s Breaking Bad follow-up
    • A man in Full. Jeff Daniels Atlanta real estate tycoon.
    • Thicha: Thai girl taking revenge!!  Merched because I’m in Thailand?
    • Tokyo Swindlers.

#77 – Thailand, Golf, Tesla, Palantir, Netflix Read More »

#75 – SpaceX, DOGE, Netflix, Tesla

SpaceX

  • This is the most advanced tech company in World and needs to be celebrated an honored. 
  • On hive price has tripled since election. Can’t even buy. Has $180b mkt cap. 
  • President Trump in attendance. 
  • Starship 6 launch! 
    • 120 meters tall. Statue of liberty 93 meters. 
    • Each Raptor rocket engine produces twice as much thrust as all 4 engines on a 747. There are 33 Raptor engines powering the Starship rocket booster. 66 747’s
  • Booster and Starship landed in ocean for recovery – no chopsticks for booster this time. 
  • Odd that Elon not invited to EV summit and Biden never acknowledged SpaceX!!
  • Pointy Rockets

Elon on call with Sundar (happened to be in room). 

  • X vs YouTube (BTW, I streamed the SpaceX launch from X to my TV). Also works with screen off. 
  • XAI vs DeepMind
  • Grok vs Gemini (BTW I signed up for Gemini in my Google Biz suite). 
  • Tesla vs Waymo

Transition to Politics: 

Politics

Why discuss on a “Finance” podcast? 

Politics > Policies >  Business > Investments

Trump vs Harris spending on the campaign:

  • Spending. How is Kamala in debt. Beyonce 10m? 
  • Why did Oprah charge $1m for an interview?
  • https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1855432554666664043
    • Campaign Spending;
      • Trump Raised $381.54 Million
      • Trump spent $345.42 Million
      • $10.4 Million was spent on Staff.
      • Kamala raised $1.003 Billion
      • Kamala Spent $1.37 Billion
      • Kamala Spent $582.53 Million on Staff.

Marc and Ben on Policy

  • Leaders of A16z with $44b deployed. Portfolio

Recap at 2:00 min from Ben: 

  • It was inarguably the worst four years in our career in terms of White House policy as it related to technology and and business more broadly.
  • They did things that no White House has done and went far outside the law.” 
  • Destroying FinTech and Crypto.
  • US could fall behind in AI.

DOGE

Vivek and Elon to head Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). 

Why important: Maybe we CAN balance the budget without cutting entitlements?  

Milton Friedman on getting rid of federal agencies. Jump to 2:35. Nobel Laureate and Economist. Died 2006

  • Also, like Chamath: Friedman believed the Federal Reserve System should ultimately be replaced with a computer program.

Elon explains why important. “There are around 428 federal agencies. There’s so many that people have never even heard of. I think we should be able to get away with 99 agencies.”

  • They just output regulations. 

From Vivek: Here’s a key point about our mission at DOGE: eliminating bureaucratic regulations isn’t a mere policy preference. It’s a legal *mandate* from the U.S. Supreme Court:

  • West Virginia v. EPA (2022) held that agencies cannot decide major questions of economic or political significance without “clear congressional authorization.” This applies to *thousands* of rules that never passed Congress.
  • In Loper Bright v. Raimondo (2024), the Court ended Chevron deference, which means agencies can’t foist their own interpretations of the law onto the American people. Over 18,000 federal cases cited the Chevron doctrine, often to uphold regulations, many of which are now null & void.

From Elon: All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency. Anytime the public thinks we are cutting something important or not cutting something wasteful, just let us know! We will also have a leaderboard for most insanely dumb 

Javier Milei: Afuera 🤣

Bitcoin

  • New highs over $92k. Also a frothy indicator. 
  • Michael Saylor seems like a genius! CEO of Microstrategy

Innovators Dilemna 

  • Netflix and Tesla have one giant common denominator.  Kodak
    • ONLY PURE PLAY!!!
    • AND Profitable. Ford losing $55k per EV vehicle. 

Netflix

  • $878…. All-time highs
  • Jake Paul/ Tyson fight 
    • peaking at 65 million concurrent streams, with 38 million concurrent streams in the US.
    • 56% of all US TV viewing between 12am and 1am EST was for the Paul vs Tyson fight.
    • The Taylor-Serrano fight averaged an estimated 74 million live viewers globally and became the most-watched professional women’s sports event in US history with 47 million AMA in the US.
    • The event was #1 in 78 countries including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, South Africa, the UK and the US, and in the Top 10 in 91 countries tracked for the week of November 11-17. 
    • Streaming issues and outage. Good learning. THEY’LL figure it out!!
  • Squid Game. Dec 26
  • 2 Christmas day NFL games. Sold out all advertising. 
    • Also partnering with sports betting! 
  • Netflix ad tier 70m monthly users.

Tesla

  • $346 yesterday. $1.1T market Cap. High $410 Nov 2021. So 20% to get back to high. 
  • ‘Trump administration Clearly a big help for AI. Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team have told advisers they plan to make a federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles one of the Transportation Department’s priorities, easing U.S. rules for self-driving cars.
  • Ron Baron on Tesla: Play at 3:23. Tesla $3-5 trillion in 10 years. 
    • Feels conservative. 
  • Per Dan Ives. $400 price target. Wedbush’s Dan Ives boosted his target price to $400 a share, the highest among major brokers. “The Trump White House win will be a game changer for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years,” wrote Ives.
  • Robots in China!! Xpeng. 
    • IT IS SO OBVIOUS ROBOTS ARE COMING!!

Short squeeze: 

“The pain might not be over for Tesla short-sellers. We expect continued short covering in $TSLA due to the rally induced short squeeze. 

Example:

  • $1m in account. 25% margin allowed. 
  • Borrow $200k of Tesla. (someone lends it to you). You sell it for $200k. Do something else with money. That’s 20% margin.
  • Price goes up 30%. You now have to give shares back. So owe pay $260k. 
    • Brokerage knows you owe $260k. So margin is at 26%. 
  • You have to “cover”. Buy shares and payback… or brokerage sells for you!

Nvidia Earnings

  • Earnings on deck. Could move markets.

College 

  • Chamath PalihapitiyaParents: Help pick your kids’ college wisely. The more a college charges for tuition and claims their elitism, the more radicalized your child may be if they go there. 
    • So basically ALL colleges with “Encampments” were over $60k in tuition per year!
  • From the WSJ:  Bosses don’t want “ivy”. 
  • Point is go to a college, study something productive and go work! 

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