Oregon Duck Football

Beat Purdue 35-0. Ranked #1. 

Markets

Nvidia

• All time highs again.

Netflix Earnings

• New record high. $752 today, but reached $772.  
• Maybe running ahead of itself a little, but still pure streaming play with no end of growth in site. 
• Q4: Tyson, Football, Squid…

Tesla Earnings

Tesla up almost 22% today. At $260. High was 410.

Sandy Munroe set me straight! I was very wrong about the Tesla AI event. 

• Investor Deck
• Everyone should simply listen to the Earnings Call. 
• Elon said 20-30% growth next year. 
• Full autonomy approved and ride-hailing in CA and TX in 2025. 
• Safer than humans by Q2 2025
• Full scale production of CyberCab by 2026. No steering wheel and no pedals. Big screen for movies and comfortable. 
• Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in Q3 in the U.S. (behind only Model Y and Model 3)
• Increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3
• Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised)4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12
• Two key points coming here:
  • Ability to learn. 10k miles per intervention. 
  • Optimus!!! 
    • Dexterity movement. 22 degrees of freedom. Human = 27. Doorknobs.
    • Think about the AI real-world functionality. 
    • Most advanced humanoid robot by a long-shot! 
    • Only company that can scale manufacturing. 
    • Optimus will be most valuable part of company. 

• • The Services and Other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3, growing over 90% year-on-year. Sequential growth in gross profit was driven mostly by higher gross profit generation from supercharging, service center margin improvement and higher gross profit generation from Parts Sales and Merchandise. Our Supercharger network continued to expand in Q3 with over 2,800 new stalls in the quarter, a 22% growth of the network YoY. 6700 Charging stations! 
    • Under-Appreciated!!! 

Financials:

• A lot of talk about the “machines” that build the machines. Most advanced factories in the world! 
• Energy revenue up 52% YoY and Services up 29% YoY. 
• Gross profit up 20%, with revenue up 8% (depressed by car sales revenue). 

Remember. Not a “Car” company. AI, Robot and Energy. 

Uber

• Demand aggregator?

Self-driving cars

WSJ on Waymo and San Francisco, LA, Phoenix and Austin.  Audra mentioned this to me. Driving Jaguars. 300 vehicles in SF. 

• McKenna Dixon, a nurse in the burn unit at a local hospital, takes Waymos instead of Lyft or Uber whenever she calls a ride. She works the overnight shift and said she takes Waymo to or from work a few times a week.“I’ll just get in the car, start my music, recline my seat back and close my eyes the whole ride home,” the 27-year
• Waymo is on a marketing blitz that includes social-media ads promoting the privacy of its cars for date night
• Also going to partner thru Uber app.  
• Competition is good and will keep regulators in check. 
  • Google Waymo. 
  • Amazon: Zoox. 
  • GM: Cruise.

Googles Waymo Now Obviously the Leader in Self-Driving Cars   🤣

Lot’s talk tech: 

Waymo uses a combination of sensors and software to enable autonomous driving:Sensors: Waymo’s vehicles use a suite of sensors, including cameras, radar, and lidar, to provide a 360-degree view of the world around them:

Tesla: Cameras.  

ALL GOOD!! Hope they both succeed tremendously! 

Tesla tech very different and more advanced. 

You’ve seen Elon carrying a sink into Twitter to make a visual pun “Let that sink in”, now we have a 20′ high fork in the road right in front on the newly added section to Gigatexas 

Government Overreach 

• This story of strangulation by over-regulation from @elonmusk about the government requiring @SpaceX to assess whether their rockets could potentially hit SHARKS and WHALES is side-splittingly hilarious.
• Seals with headphones.
• DOGE Dept of Government Efficiency
• Kimbal Musk explains how SpaceX had to fight the US military to allow them to launch satellites for cheaper prices. The US military didn’t care about price. They were perfectly happy to pay $400 million per launch to Boeing/Lockheed (ULA) instead of $50 million to SpaceX
• CCDH…Speaking X Twitter: Leaked documents from the Center for Countering Digital Hate reveal their primary goal is to “Kill Musk’s Twitter” by targeting advertising and leveraging EU regulations.

CA Electric Bill

• $1300/ month. 3000 sq ft home with 4 people.

Recommendations:

• Rogan and Jelly Roll 
• Trump Going on Rogan Podcast Tomorrow

Bettina’s Fall/Winter 2024 Fall Fashion Show

Oregon wins 32-31 over Ohio State

Exploiting loophole in rules. NCAA to close loophole.

• In the National Football League, the clock reverts back to the original time on a 12-man penalty — that is not the case in college football.
• 10 seconds to go. 3rd and 25.
• Put an extra defender on field. Then either:
  • (a) Buckeyes make a play and decline penalty. Or
  • (b) Penalty accepted, and 4 seconds off clock. Only 5 yds gained.
• Now only 6 seconds on clock and need 10-12 yds to make field goal more realistic.
• Time more important than yards.

529 Plans and Markets

• Fidelity or Vanguard. Done.
  • Wealthfront: couldn’t find the underlying portfolio holdings?
  • Holdings are WAY too conservative.
• 6000/month &6% or 7&7. Gets you between $200-$250k.
• 529 Rollovers?
  • Can’t roll it all to a Roth. $35,000 lifetime.

RoboTaxi – We-Robot Event – Tesla

• Elon key note.
• Stayed in LA at Burbank Hotel. Nice.
• Elevator operator analogy.
• Cyber Cab unveil. Below $30k. No wheels or pedals. Production in 2026 (optimistic).
  • Inductive charging. No plug.
• Fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in CA and Texas in 2025. Model 3
• Van that can carry up to 20 people or packaging.
• Optimus
  • Serving drinks and interacting with everyone there. Rumor is some human involvement.
  • My interaction with Optimus. Sub-optimal
  • Should cost $20-30k.
  • Still thinks it will be biggest product ever of any kind. Everyone will want an optimus “buddy”.

Nvidia and XAI:

• Jensen Juang on Brad Gerstner Podcast.
• 100m AI assistants to aid his workforce.
• Jensen talking to Brad: https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1845481395625304331?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g
  • “Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish.
  • “Easily the fastest super computer on the planet”.
  • Normally 3 years to plan and 1 year to set up.
  • That is superhuman – There’s only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.”
• From Pierre Ferragu

Hiive

• Can buy SpaceX and XaI there.
• Sometimes with major conditions, like annual fee and “carry” of 10-20%.

Netflix Earnings: Strong.

Crypto

Best asset class returns in 5 and 10 years…not fair to go back further?

• How much to own?
• Why?
• And where to hold it/ how to invest in it?
• IBIT and ETHA.
• Tight correlation to underlying assets.
• Managed by iShares/ Blackrock, so probably good controls in place.
• Fees are reasonable.

Recommendations:

• Wife: Citadel Diana on Amazon

Markets

Interest rates down. Money market from 5.3% to 4.7% 

Get in now or wait? 

CAPE Ratio still high at 35. 

S&P 500 basically at all time high.

Mutual Funds! High Fees!

Many mutual funds charge very high fees and over 90% under-perform their benchmark.

Many funds charge 0.80% – 0.90%. Add that to your advisor fee of 1% and you are paying almost 2% to finance professionals. Why??

See below. Over 90% of mutual funds under-perform their benchmark.

Inflation

Milton Friedman on inflation

Basically need to balance the budget. Almost $2 trillion dollar deficit in 2024 YTD alone.

Netflix

Stock all time high around $730. 

Up 49% YTD, compared to S&P500 at 23%

Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell said Netflix “is a clear leader in streaming,” according to The Fly. He upgraded the company to overweight from neutral and boosted his price target to $800 from $650. 

• TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge raised the firm’s price target on Netflix to $820 from $775 while maintaining a buy rating on the shares.
• Netflix (NFLX) is expected to benefit from a long runway for revenue growth and a deepening competitive moat, Morgan Stanley said in a report Thursday.

The report also pointed to above consensus expectations for operating leverage and EPS.

“Our analysis of Netflix new 1H24 engagement report reinforces our bullish view,” Morgan Stanley said, adding that the latest engagement report is backing the “Netflix content advantage,” referring to its original programming, international content, and the value of its content library.

Following “peak TV” and recent strikes, Hollywood’s new normal favors Netflix, with reduced competition for content and media studios open to licensing again, the report said. It said the ad-tier introduction would also help raise revenue.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $820 from $780 while reiterating its overweight rating.

Apple 

At $228 vs high of $234. 

• Downgraded by Jeffries.
• Is Apple Intelligence a thing?
• Iphone is 50% of sales
• Is Iphone 16 enough?

My thesis:

• Entire family uses. 
• Customer service is insanely good!! 
• All photos there. 
• Ear buds. 
• Security!

Amazon

• $187, was around $200. 
• Not sure how you bet against Amazon. In 2023, Amazon was the third largest digital ad publisher in the United States, behind Google and Facebook. Amazon’s global ad revenue reached $49 billion in 2023, which is nearly triple its 2019 result.
• Fabric of life: Everyday we get a package. 
• First place I go to search/buy. 
• Free returns. Easy. 

Microsoft

• To buy 3-mile island. 

Newsom bans voter id requirements.

Elon Musk on Tucker

• 23.30 on is Epstein list discussion. 
  • Videos. Diddy and Epstein. 
• 28.00 – How will they let X continue? Lawfare!!  Illegal to discriminate asslym seekers, but can’t hire as SpaceX. Point is DOJ is weaponized. 

 

Cuban on All In Podcast. 

Monsters on Netflix

Slow Horses (called it White Horses before)

Wife watching “Troy: Fall of a City”