Author name: Sean Hathaway

I am the owner of this site.

Golf, Netflix & Reed Hastings, Tesla, SpaceX, Open AI, Markets

Golf: 

Shot a 100!!

Masters

Cameron on Church and Family.

Markets

  • STAY IN the MaRKET
  • In one year UP: VGT 59%, QQQ 48% and VOO 35%. 

Netflix

Let’s hear from Ted on Reed. 

Open AI 

At a high level, the lawsuit (primarily led by Elon Musk) asserts that OpenAI betrayed its founding “charitable mission” by transforming from a transparent non-profit into a “closed-source de facto subsidiary” of Microsoft.

Musk’s legal team argues that the shift to a for-profit structure constitutes fraud and a breach of charitable trust, claiming that early donors like Musk were “deceived” into providing seed funding under the premise that the AI would remain open-source and benefit all of humanity. Consequently, the lawsuit seeks to reclaim billions in “wrongful gains” and potentially force the company to open its technology, asserting that no private corporation should have an exclusive grip on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Tesla 

EV sales in the US Qg1 2026

Tesla’s total across all its models (Model Y, Model 3, Cybertruck, Model X, and Model S) is 117,300 vehicles.

This represents 55.43% of the overall total of 211,609 vehicles in the list.

Tesla dominated this dataset, accounting for more than half of all the EVs combined.

Lidar

Elon on Lidar

  • Problem number one: it adds a modality to the model’s training. Your network has to learn to fuse vision + LIDAR + radar + ultrasonics. Every extra sensor is a source of disagreement to arbitrate, not an additional source of info. Handcrafted sensor fusion = permanent technical debt.
  • Problem number two, Rich Sutton’s bitter lesson: scaling compute on a single modality systematically beats hand-built architectures. Tesla dropped radar, then ultrasonics, went full end-to-end vision. Their curve on edge cases accelerated AFTER, not before. Waymo does the opposite and stays stuck in geofenced ops.
  • Problem number three, the most fundamental: LIDAR sees geometry, not semantics. It knows there’s something, not what it is or what it’s going to do. The last 9s of reliability are cognition problems, not raw perception ones. One more sensor solves nothing, it adds noise.

Semi

Discussion of moving vertically as it hangs from the ceiling moving the Body of the Semi around. ‘

Robotaxi

  • Data Center applied to mobil? What? I think it means each car is a walking piece of a datacenter. So whil car its on board compute is not doing “driving functions” it could be a hub of a  larger datacetner. Definitely an Energy questions here. Just leaving Sentry mode on can bleed the batter. 
  • Musk estimates that a fleet of 100 million vehicles, each contributing ~1 kW of inference power, could provide 100 gigawatts of total compute power. This would rival the world’s largest centralized data centers without the need to build new buildings or cooling infrastructure.
  • Owners could potentially rent out their car’s compute cycles for cash or charging credits, similar to how they might earn money from a Robotaxi fleet.

FSD Europe

Tesla official X announcement. 

FSD Supervised has been approved in the Netherlands & will begin rolling out in the country shortly! 

Trained on billions of kilometers of real-world driving data, it can drive you almost anywhere under your supervision – from residential roads to city streets & highways. No other vehicle can do this. We’re excited to bring FSD Supervised to more European countries soon

SpaceX 

  • Good video here. 
  • 10,000+ satellites.
  • 9m paid Starlink subscribers
  • Starlink was $10-12b in 2025.  Revenue total $15-16b.

Expected IPO Details

  • Valuation: SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would make it one of the largest companies in the world immediately upon listing.
  • Retail Access: In a rare move for a massive IPO, SpaceX is reportedly considering allocating up to 30% of its shares specifically for retail investors (individuals).
  • Recent Merger: The company recently integrated Elon Musk’s AI startup, xAI, in February 2026, which is expected to be a major part of the narrative in the upcoming public prospectus.

Fraud

Golf, Netflix & Reed Hastings, Tesla, SpaceX, Open AI, Markets Read More »

Markets, Terafab, Tesla, SpaceX, CA Fraud

Opening

Why so long: 3 letters DNS DNS security is the practice of protecting the Domain Name System (DNS) infrastructure from cyberattacks to ensure reliable, safe internet browsing. 

Play. Its always about the straits. https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2038729125653819515

Artemis ii 

Last moon landing. Before I was born.  The last crewed moon landing was Apollo 17, which touched down on the Moon on December 11, 1972.

10 day mission!! 

When the Orion spacecraft swings behind the far side of the Moon, the Moon itself will physically block all radio signals between the crew and Earth.

  • Duration: Approximately 41 minutes (reports range from about 40–50 minutes, depending on the exact trajectory).
  • What happens: No voice communication, no telemetry data, no video — complete loss of contact with Mission Control in Houston.
  • When: This occurs around day 6 of the mission (roughly April 6–7, 2026), during the closest lunar flyby.
  • Why it’s normal: Radio waves travel in straight lines and can’t go through the solid Moon. This same thing happened during the Apollo missions when crews went behind the Moon.

Passwords and ID protection: 

Etrade

  • Options are expiring. Changed so many passwords. 
  • USE 2-factor authentication at least on “money” accounts.
  • Require it for wires! 

Kroll ID Protection

  • So some undisclosed healthcare provider from who know when was hacked. Current, former? You think they actually purge the data?

Experian

Trump Comedy

Why don’t you Tell us about the Attack. Well you didn’t tell us about Pearl Harbor!!

Play.  Caddie and pro golfer conversations are interesting. Akshay Batia.

  • 132-135 yd “chip”. 9 iron. Wedge was too much work. Called it a “chip”. 
  • Most important. No warm up swings!! So overrated! 
  • Followed Justin Thomas at Pebble. Same thing.

Markets: 

  • Healthy Correction. Remember: S&P500 6% off, was 9%. 

IGV

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV)

  • 32% off high.

Tesla and LEAP options

Netflix

Netflix for my beloved: down 26%. PE is still 40!!!!!!

AI

SpaceX & Tesla 

I just bought a new Model Y. $53,000

A lot of catalysts coming!! 

CyberCab

  • Manufacturing begins in April 2026 (finally!!)
  • Will it have a Steering wheel?

Model Y

  • THEY MAKE YOU DRIVE IT.
  • Pulling the trigger. Still best selling car in world. Car looks great. 
  • The “best-selling car in the world” title for Model Y (2023–2025 per Tesla) is widely reported but occasionally debated due to close margins with the Toyota RAV4 and varying data sources.
  • Premium All-Wheel: $48,990. FSD: $99/ mo. 19” tires for cushion and ability to put better all-terrain tires.

CyberTruck

Tried to order a Dual-Motor all-wheel drive for $69,990. Est delivery is 2027!!! 

Tesla Semi

Tesla Semi 

  • Factory ready. 
  • Is a sleeper that is going to disrupt the trucking industry. From WSJ. 

Jay Leno YouTube Video

  • Trag coefficient needs to be as low was possible. Driver in middle helps with that. 
    • Lower than a Bugatti
    • Traditional truck requires side driver because engine is front-center and transmission runs thru the middle. 
  • Jay Leno pulling 60-70k load. 
  • In commercial trucking only one metric matters: Cost per Mile. 
    • This includes trucker not getting tired and being safe, because its on FSD. 
  • 500 mile range. 60% charge in 30 min. So can stop to charge during 30 minute break and recover 300 miles. 

TeraFab Project

Tera implies a Terawatt of compute manufacture each year. 

Terawatt ($10^{12}$ Watts) is one trillion watts.

  • Context: The entire United States power grid has a peak capacity of roughly 1.2 Terawatts.
  • Comparison: If Elon Musk were to run a single data center at 1 Terawatt, it would require nearly the entire electricity output of the United States to keep the lights on.
  • The Energy Problem: In space, solar panels are roughly 8x more efficient. There are no clouds, no atmosphere, and in certain orbits, no night. You get pure, 24/7 high-intensity radiation.
  • The Heat Problem: Data centers on Earth are “water-hungry” because they use massive amounts of liquid to cool the chips. In space, you don’t need water; you just radiate the heat out into the absolute zero of the vacuum.
  • The Land Problem: Building a 1TW data center on Earth would require a land area the size of a small country. In orbit, space is (literally) infinite.

3 company venture: Tesla, XAi, SpaceX

10 million tons of equipment to orbit/ year. 

Global chip supply. 

  • Current global output is 20 megawatts or 2% of what’s needed. 
  • Will make lithography mask. Memory and Logic chips and packaging under one roof. 
  • 4 outputs> Lith Mask, Memory, Logic, & Packaging. 

2 chips: 

1 – optimized for edge inference. Expects Optimus to be 10-100x the output of humanoids. 

2 – High-powered chip designed for space. Can run hotter. 

Space is always sunny. 

2-3 years until AI chips in space beat earth chips by cost. Why: 

  • Energy consistent. Always sunny. 
  • Cold
  • Less material needed because less glass and protection needed. 
  • Also, non physical space constraint. I.e. you don’t run out of land. 

SpaceX

Tesla and SpaceX Merger

Best write up so far. Alexxadra.

Terafab description from Tesla X. 

Announcing TeraFab

Fraud

Key takeaway: No new taxes without full transparency. 

Dr. Oz on shutting down Hospices in California. 

ONE BUILDING supposedly houses 197 separate hospice and healthcare companies

Fair Question. Why not help Nick?   Now CBS on the case

Play David Spade. The TRAIN.   Even mainstream comedians are making fun of Gavin’. 

Markets, Terafab, Tesla, SpaceX, CA Fraud Read More »

#104 – Markets, Golf, Netflix, SpaceX, AI Fear, Over-Taxation

Cameron Young tied on 18. Longest drive on 18. 365. Full pause. Birdy on 17, the hardest hole. 

CAl FTB: Terrible

Facts of life: Your Thoughts define you

  • Your thoughts shape you. Your habits build you. Your choices define you. 

Miami

  • Beautiful and no state tax. Everyone moving there. 
  • Mansions and yachts, but lots of normal people too.  
  • Ken Griffin.  Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have purchased a $170 million, 30,000-square-foot mansion on Miami’s exclusive Indian Creek Island, known as “Billionaire Bunker”. The under-construction, 2-acre waterfront estate includes 9 bedrooms, 15 bathrooms, and a 1,500-gallon aquarium. This record-breaking March 2026 purchase adds to his portfolio and reflects a trend of tech elites relocating to Florida. 

Stock Market

Netflix still has a high PE ratio. 

AI Fear

  • I’ve listened to a few podcasts featuring Marc Benioff in the last year. He is 100% all-in on AI. 
  • The idea that SAAS will be completed disrupted by AI is over-hyped. Jensen Huang put it well: AI will not invent a new hammer or screwdriver; they’ll just use what exists. Analogy is to SaaS companies in general. 
  • Large Corporations (think Fortune 1000) are not goint to ditch big SaaS companies, like ERP (Workday, Oracle, SAP), Security, CRM, Analytics, Microsoft Office, etc…  
    • They are not going to switch out CRM (SalesForce) and tell a 10 person AI team to build from scratch. No way.  
    • On the other hand; if you are a start-up with 10-20 employees, you might build your own CRM tool.

Long story, short: The AI replacement fear is over-hyped. 

Netflix

Netflix Loses Bidding War to Paramount! 

Tesla

Interview with Elon

    • Tesla has most advanced Real-world AI
    • Starting scale production of CyberCab in April
    • Tesla Semi coming this year

SpaceX

  1. SpaceX acquired XaI
  2. SpaceX will go public.  
  3. SpaceX will merge with Tesla. 

Notes on mergers: 

  • Share trade merger
  • DSP for qualified LT Tesla Shareholders. 

Love this take from Travis on Autonomous driving. TSLA for the win. 

XAi 

Rebuilding Xai from ground up.   

XaI will be a financial behemoth

𝕏 Money has already been live in closed beta internally within the company. A limited external beta is expected soon, and they’ve already secured money transmitter licenses in over 40 states plus DC. 𝕏 Payments is registered with FinCEN. Visa is officially partnered. You’ll be able to fund your wallet instantly, send peer-to-peer payments, move money to your bank, and eventually use a debit card.

This will probably start as a simple wallet where you can send money as easily as sending a DM. With this technology, you can pay creators, pay subscriptions, pay whatever bills, shop inside the app, get paid inside the app, and much more. 

Then, there will be high-yield savings, you can invest, you can get loans, have money market accounts, maybe even treasury access, cool smart cashtags that let you see live stock prices in your timeline and execute trades seamlessly, crypto integration, potentially full asset management… the list goes on and on… Elon literally said this is meant to be the central source of ALL monetary transactions.

Andrej Karpathy on Elon’s management style

AI 

OpenAI 

In late February 2026, OpenAI closed a massive $110 billion funding round, valuing the company between $730 billion and $840 billion, marking it as one of the most valuable private companies globally. Backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, this capital is designated for significant infrastructure expansion, including computing power, ahead of a potential IPO. 

  • Amount Raised: $110 billion.
  • Valuation: Approx. $730 billion – $840 billion.
  • Key Investors: Amazon ($50B), Nvidia ($30B), SoftBank ($30B).

This round represents a massive escalation in the AI capital race, following a previous $40 billion injection from investors in 2025. 

Anthropic Claude

In early March 2026, The Pentagon designated Anthropic a “national security supply chain risk” after the company refused to remove Claude’s safety guardrails prohibiting uses like autonomous weapons or mass domestic surveillance, leading President Trump to order federal agencies to cease using the technology and prompting a phase-out for defense-related work.

 

  • Anthropic responded aggressively by filing lawsuits against the administration 
  • consumer growth, surging to the #1 free app on the Apple App Store in the US, with record daily sign-ups, free users up over 60% since January, and paid subscribers 
  • Anthropic’s most recent funding round was a Series G that closed on February 12, 2026, where the company raised $30 billion in capital.

Taxes

NewYork City

Fareed Zakaria

Here are the top four tax issues drawing the most criticism for NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposals:

  • 9.5% blanket property tax hike — Proposed as a last-resort increase to close the budget gap, criticized as regressive and burdensome on middle-class homeowners, co-op/condo owners, and renters.
  • Additional 2% income tax surcharge on high earners — Targets individuals earning over $1 million, accused of fueling wealthy flight and class warfare rather than sustainable revenue solutions.
  • Corporate tax increases — Aims to raise rates on profitable companies to match neighboring states, slammed by business groups for risking economic harm and driving companies out of NYC.
  • Sharp estate tax exemption cut — Seeks to drop the exemption from ~$7 million to $750,000 with higher top rates, viewed as unfairly hitting middle-class inheritances instead of just the ultra-wealthy.

CA Fraud

Nick Shirley Doing his Thing again in CA

Wealth Tax

https://x.com/stevenfiorillo/status/2033352518802026741

  • According to IRS migration data, New York has lost $111 billion in net adjusted gross income over the last decade from residents moving to other states. 
  • California lost $102 billion over the same period. 
  • Florida gained $196 billion. 
  • Texas gained $54 billion. 
  • Between 2018 and 2024, 
    • The San Francisco Bay Area lost 156 corporate headquarters. 
    • Los Angeles lost 106. 
    • New York City lost 27. 
    • Meanwhile Dallas alone gained 100, Austin gained 81, and Nashville gained 35. T In-N-Out Burger is opening a 100,000-square-foot eastern headquarters near Nashville and is leaving California. These aren’t outliers anymore as this is becoming the new normal.

It’s not just corporate headquarters moving. Entire financial ecosystems are relocating. Citadel, one of the most profitable hedge funds in the world, moved its headquarters from Chicago to Miami in 2022 and has been building out aggressively ever since. They’re constructing a massive new waterfront headquarters in Miami’s Brickell financial district. Elliott Management moved to West Palm Beach. 

  • Goldman Sachs $GS is building a $500 million campus in Dallas designed to house over 5,000 employees.
  • JPMorgan Chase $JPM and Wells Fargo $WFC have both invested hundreds of millions into massive new campuses in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. 
  • NYSE Texas a reincorporation of the 143-year old Chicago Stock Exchange officially launched in Dallas in early 2025. The Texas Stock Exchange which is a brand new national securities exchange backed by over $160 million from BlackRock $BLK , Citadel Securities, and Charles Schwab $SCHW is set to begin trading by the end of this year.

When you have that level of financial infrastructure being built in a single metro area, that’s not a trend it’s an ecosystem being constructed from scratch to compete directly with New York. 

Almost 1,700 millionaires changed their address out of New York in 2024 alone. Millionaires paid 44.6% of all personal income tax collected in the state last year. 

Ken Griffin and Stephen Ross just launched a $10 million campaign called “Ambitious Accelerated” to recruit more businesses to what they’re calling Florida’s “Tech Gold Coast.” They’re not waiting for New York to figure it out. They’re actively recruiting our talent, our capital, and our tax base.

That’s what makes this moment so critical. We are in the middle of the most competitive environment for jobs, businesses, and investment that this country has ever seen. 

 Texas entered its latest legislative session with a $24 billion surplus while having no personal or corporate income tax. Think about that for a moment, no personal or corporate income tax and they have a $24 billion surplus. 

Florida added more new businesses than any other state in 2024, with over 266,000 formed in a single year. These states didn’t create an attractive business landscape out of thin air. They made deliberate policy choices to create environments where businesses want to operate, where employers want to hire, and where working people can actually build something without the ground shifting underneath them every budget cycle.

This matters because of what it means for everyday people. When a company relocates its headquarters, it doesn’t just move a sign, the entire company leaves, from the executive team to the support staff.

Here’s the part nobody in Albany wants to hear. The people who leave don’t just take their tax returns with them. They take their fundraising networks, philanthropy, job creation, and spending to a new economy. 

WSJ on Billionaires leaving. 

  • Google co-founder Larry Page recently made headlines by spending $188 million on three Miami mansions. 
  • Ken Griffin relocated himself and the headquarters of his Citadel hedge fund from Chicago to Miami. The venture capitalists Peter Thiel and Keith Rabois bought homes in Miami Beach and opened an office for their venture capital fund in Miami, too. Jeff Bezos moved from Seattle to Miami, assembling a $200 million plus compound.
  • Mark Zuckerberg gone

Washington State passes 9.9% tax on income over $1m. 

  • Howard Schultz leaving
  • Bezos already gone

Recommendations:

#104 – Markets, Golf, Netflix, SpaceX, AI Fear, Over-Taxation Read More »

#103 – Athletes Inspiration, SaaS-Ocalypse, Options, Robots, SpaceXaI

Inspiration, SaaS, Options, Robots, SpaceX and AI.

 

Inspiration and Current Events

Physical Strength

Physical Strength is important for longevity; and promotes bone density, coordination, strength, metabolism and self-esttem.

Bench Press: Pete Hegeseth, the US Secretary of War (formerly called secretary of defense) just benched 315 pounds. Getting a lot of social media attention. Deservedly so; he’s inspiring.

Avalanche

9 of 15 people that died in Tahoe avalanche hiking/skiing backcountry. Tragedy.

Mikaela Shiffrin

  • Gold in Slalom
  • First Alpine skier to surpass 100 World Cup wins

Anthony Kim

Started 5 shots back. 9 birdies final round!

Anthony Kim talking about family and God

Tiger on Anthony Kim

Like Kim Kardashian! 

Secret Edge of the Rockstar skier per WSJ.

  • I’d say Golfer too.

Stock Market

Markets 1% or so off ATH. Tech 5% or so whatever. The interesting story is.

SaaS-Ocolypse
iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV)

31% off high!!

Check out the following companies and how far down % they are from ATH (all time high)

Well-known SaaS companies off theri all time high.
SaaS companies stock price decline

Options

Workday:

  • Duration 482 (so about 16 months) to June 2027
  • Trading at $140.
  • Call is $36 or 26%. % is key. Indicates cost.
  • Bid / Ask: So buy 100 options to purchase Workday anytime in the next 6 months at $36.00 each, so costs you $3600.

IN summary. Workday goes up 26% to $176 you make money.

  • To make “real Money” you buy $100k you get about 2700-2800 options.
  • Workday doubles to $280.
  • You make ($280- $140 – $36)*2700 = $280 – $300k.

AI

SpaceXaI

XaI video on restructuring and next steps

Robotics

Figure in the US showing Robots doing real-world tasks.

Billionaire Wealth Tax


$519 Per Second: The Real-Time Destruction

California Wealth Exodus Tracker

Billionaires that moved out of California recently.

  • Larry Paige (Google Founder)
  • Sergey Brin (Google Founder)
  • Mark Zuckerburg (Meta Founder)
  • Peter Thiel (Entrepreneur and founder)
  • Steven Spielberg
  • Others

California has the largest state budget in the US and is very inefficient at spending those dollars. Instead of balancing the budget the politicians brilliant idea is to tax billionaires on their “wealth”. Unheard of in the United States and will raise constitutional questions. But regardless, the rich aren’t sticking around. So now California has lost Billions of $’s in tax revenue already; i.e. they lost the 13.2% state income tax. The middle class will now fill this hole with more taxes if a balanced budget is not in the future.

Rent Control

Rent control in Mass from WSJA group of housing advocates and labor unions want to stop landlords from raising rents by more than the state’s annual rate of inflation—but no higher than 5%—a year.

Recommendations

AI for Home:

  • Using Gemini Gems:
    • Home electronics
    • Music studio

Chris Hemsworth on Theo Von

  • Play at 17.40. Purity of life and questioning meaning and why?
  • “Falling in love”. Not rising or winning, but falling, like a sacrifice and risk.

#103 – Athletes Inspiration, SaaS-Ocalypse, Options, Robots, SpaceXaI Read More »

#102 – SpaceX, XaI, Tesla, Netflix, AI, California

Apple Phone

SuperBowl. Bad Bunny

JETS:Two B-1B Lancer bombers. two F-15C Eagles, two F/A-18E Super Hornets, and two F-35C Lightning

Linday Vonn – Torn ACL.

Markets

VOO and Tech still near all-time highs.

Bitcoin down 45%.

Spotify up 15% today. Still 40% off high. 98B market cap.

SpaceX

Elon on the Pivot to Moon as opposed to Mars now.

Elon Musk

Great interview with

  • 10000 Starship launches annually. Low rate compared to airplanes.

Merger with Tesla

SpaceX and XaI merged. Presumably Elon has super voting control. Now SpaceXaI will acquire $TLSA at a premium (~30%). They’re similarly valued at ~$1.5T each.

AND I think/hope Elon also offers an “allocation” of pre-IPO shares to Long-term Tesla shareholders (maybe > 3 years).

Tesla

Netflix

Ted Sarandos testimony.

  • 80% of HBO subscribers are Netflix subscribers.
  • YouTube is #1 viewing platform. Rights to Oscars, NFL, etc…
  • Netflix is 9% of viewing and with Warner 10%? Wow!
  • Chief Strategy Officer at Warner.

Senator Hawley is a terrible Senator!

AI

Jensen Huang on Software and AI. AI will not replace software.

Government Fraud

Hospice Cares in California

Play:  https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2018099758943084657

  • 18% of entire US Home Healthcare funding/billing is from LA county.
  • 1 Dr. 1900 patients and billed $120m in one year!
  • 287 Hospice providers in 2 mile radius. 2000 hospice agencies in LA county. Strip malls, unmarked buildings and vacant lots.

California Billionaire Tax

Larry, Sergei, Peter Thiel, countless others. Startup founders will leave.

With Zuck’s move to Florida, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has plummeted to well under $1T from over $2T just a few weeks ago.

Recommendations

  • Beast within me.

#102 – SpaceX, XaI, Tesla, Netflix, AI, California Read More »

#101 – Mkts, Apple, MSFT, Meta, Tesla, XaI, SpaceX, Govt

Reformer Machine Workout at YogaSource in Los Gatos

Sonos nightmare. Gemini won

Markets

The Federal Reserve held its key interest steady in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% after a recent run of interest rate cuts.

1 Year: VGT/QQQ 23.3%. S&P 500 17%.

2025: 1 yr and 10 yr

QQQ: 20.8% and 19.4% annualized = $100k > 620

VOO 17.8% and 14.8% = $100k > 400

Apple

Apple revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16 percent from a year ago

Google’s AI technology would provide the most capable Apple foundation models

Dictation sucks!

Microsoft

Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion and increased 26%

Slowing Cloud Growth.

Meta

Up 10% or so?

From Zuck: Play at 3.22: https://www.youtube.com/live/1Tm7gX-WctI?si=i66btpKGlApbuyF5&t=202

Tesla

Investor Deck

Ending production of S and X in Q1.

Earnings Call:

Elon on CyberCab: Play at 26.15.

Elon on TerraFab: Play here 45.40

Elon on Optimus: Play

SpaceX and XaI

  • Merger.
  • How it would work.
  • Tesla Shareholder Allocation.
  • Maintaining super voting rights.

Government & Fraud

Ilhan Omar

US Rep for Minnesota

Ilhan Omar went from a having a -$65,000 net worth in 2019 to $30,000,000 in 2026.

Financial Disclosures required for Congress Persons

2023 Disclosure: $15,000 – $50,000

2024: $1,000,000 – $5,000,000

EstCru LLC Winery

Ilhan Omar Winery. Husband is Tim Mynett

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2016171843992912175

– The website disappeared

– Listings were deleted

– Archives wiped

Excited that Matt Mahan is going to run.

#101 – Mkts, Apple, MSFT, Meta, Tesla, XaI, SpaceX, Govt Read More »

#100 – Markets, Netflix, Tesla, AI, California Wealth Tax, Fraud

Opening

Reformer Machine Workout at YogaSource in Los Gatos.

Indiana Football. Fernando Mendoza is a truly special.

Markets

1 Year: VGT/QQQ 17%. S&P 500 17%.

2025: 1 yr and 10 yr

QQQ & VOO

QQQ: 20.8% and 19.4% = $100k > 620

VOO 17.8% and 14.8% = $100k > 400

VXUS: 32% and 8.5%

Gold and Silver. Great year. 77% and 200%. That’s 3x.

IBIT and Etha: Down 14% and 10%.

Lots of companies off all-time highs:

Large US Companies % off all time stock price high.
Percentage off all time high stock price for promising companies.

Netflix

  • Netflix Great earnings call.
  • 17.6% YoY revenue growth, better than Q4 2024 of 16%.
  • Warner Brothers Acquistion is huge overhang. It will help them:
    • IP. Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones, Matrix, Sopranos, Succession, Lord of the Rings. Barbie
  • HBO!

Lemonade

HIMS

Tesla

  • Autonomous. Finally pulling the driver out in Austin.
  • No longer able to buy FSD outright. Needs to be subscription
  • Lemonade cutting premiums by 50% if you drive a Tesla with FSD. Important implications for all car insurers.

Humanoid Robots

  • Yes Boston Dynamics and many others particularly in China are great, but…
  • Manufacturing, Software, Hardware, ….

XAI

Will have more AI compute than all others combined in < 5years! From Elon

The Colossus 2 supercomputer for @Grok is now operational.

First Gigawatt training cluster in the world. Upgrades to 1.5GW in April.

I’m using Gemini and Grok. Perfect combo.

SpaceX

SpaceX will be ~99% of all Earth payload mass to orbit

  • I think there will be an allocation to Tesla LT shareholders.
  • Could be $1.5T, but could go to $10T.

Politics

Wealth Tax

  • Wealth Tax. 1 time 5% on Billionairs.
    • No limitations on quantity or $ limit.
  • Play Ben Horowitz on wealth tax. 
  • More taxes is not the answer. Eliminate Fraud, waste and abuse!
  • Billionaires ~$8T, everyone else $170t.
  • The two Google founders per Gemini represented 23 percent of the aggregate billionaire wealth in CA. Throw in Peter Thiel and well over 30 percent is gone

Video here. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/2014785916083020062

$23m

  • $125k Rover seized
  • Home in Greece
  • Mansion in LA

Balance the Budget State Audit Report here

Budget Summary

.05% of Californian’s or ~8500 people making over $10m per year pay 25% of the personal income tax liability.

1% of Californian’s pay 49% of Personal Income Tax. $54 billion

Companies moving out of California

Recommendations:

  • Rogan
    • Bradley Cooper
    • Ben Affleck and Matt Damon
    • Ethan Hawke
  • Tim Ferris and Bill Gurley

#100 – Markets, Netflix, Tesla, AI, California Wealth Tax, Fraud Read More »

#99 – Markets booming, AI, Tesla, Netflix, Drugs

Holidays! . Cats and Dogs and Family. Happy Holidays. New Cat named Timmy. Pure trouble and pure JOY! 

Coinbase Fraud. Called with automated message asking if I attempted to change my “email contact”. If “no” they said press #1 or otherwise hangup. So I press 1. Some dude is on the line. Says he needs my first and last name to help. I ask him, “how do I even know if you’re real…How do I know you’re Coinbase?”. He hangs up!!! OMG! 

Startup Investing

  • Thoughts on Investing: 
  • Rule #1: Be comfortable losing all the money. Might sting, but should not cause you to lose sleep!
  • Should be in the form of a convertible note to preferred stock that is accruing interest; as opposed to pure equity. 
  • Follow the smart money.
  • Follow a “lead investor” involved that is going to help drive due diligence; like quarterly updates, financial statements, board meetings. 
  • How much does the Founder/CEO have on the line? This can highly correlate to success. Is he working 100 hour weeks?
  • Understand your exit hurdle against risk. Example: $20m valuation. $200m exit = 10x return.

Markets

Investments for our kids! 

Play here. Brad Gerstner and Michael Dell at White House. Dell committed $6.5B to $250 in to 25m accounts. = $6.25B

  • He’s getting murdered on Social Media for it being a “tax write-off”. You CAN NOT WIN. 

AI

Bubble? 

  • Open AI and some other startups? Maybe. 
  • Not Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Google. 

Fed Regulation of AI. To prevent a 50 state patchwork, onerous system. 

Bernie Sanders and other Dems calling for a “halt” on AI and Datacenters!!!???

Markets S&P 500

  • S&P only 1-2% off ATH. Tech ~5%.
  • Up 16% on year. Tech 20%
  • Big Stocks significantly off high, implying the rest of S&P 500 rising

Apple

Apple head of AI retiring. 

Apple could partner with Gemini. Also, tech is getting so good that Apple will offer privacy! 

Netflix

Netflix back in pole-position. I think this is “Good”

Stock Price hammered! Down 30%. 400b mkt cap. Was $570. Call it $500. $75b deal is only 15% of Mkt cap for: 

  • Turnkey studio and ICONIC space. 
  • IP. Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones, Matrix, Sopranos, Succession, Lord of the Rings. Barbie
  • HBO! 

Tesla

Stock Price

Vs Waymo. 

Delaware court compensation case overturned

  • Restored 2018 plan. 
  • New Plan. 

Tesla AI Chips

Tesla AI Chip and Advanced Engineering from Elon. 

Most people don’t know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years.

That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI. The current version in cars is AI4, we are close to taping out AI5 and are starting work on AI6. Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months. We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined. Read that sentence again, as I’m not kidding.

These chips will profoundly change the world in positive ways, saving millions of lives due to safer driving and providing advanced medical care to all people via Optimus. 

Send an email with three bullet points describing evidence of your exceptional ability to AI_Chips@Tesla.com. 

Tesla licensing FSD

Elon tweeing/xing tried and trying to help legacy automakers, but they want a pilot program that starts in like 5 years!

Analyst Rating on Tesla

Analysts and maybe the public waking up to Autonomous Driving!?!! 

Tesla is must own perMelius Research analyst Rob Wertheimer: “Tesla’s autonomous-driving lead is approaching an irreversible tipping point that could trigger one of the biggest value shifts in modern industrial history. Tesla is a must own because the world is about to change, dramatically.”

“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.” He adds that the next five years “will see hundreds of billions in value shift… to Tesla.” Public awareness remains low. “Not even 1 out of 100 Americans have ridden in a self-driving car,” Wertheimer stated, adding that only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest FSD (Supervised) system. When widespread rollout arrives, “it will still shock most people.”

Optimus

This video of Optimus jogging is insane. Should double the market cap! 

Inverse Funds

TSLZ

People actually buy this stuff? 

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the inverse (or opposite) of the daily performance of TSLA. The Fund does not seek to achieve its stated investment objective for a period of time different than a trading day.

SpaceX

When Starship is launching several times a day in a few years, SpaceX will be ~99% of all Earth payload mass to orbit, even if the others triple their current launch rate. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1994518037614268565?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g

Drugs

Drug Trade

  • On a lighter note these guys have fast boats. They run drug cargoes worth as much as $70 million on the sleek 40-foot-long boats, often built from fiberglass and powered by oversize outboards. These boats are the workhorses for the traffickers along 2,000 miles of Colombian coastline—and hundreds more miles in Ecuador and Venezuela.
  • Interesting…the “Gaurantor”.… The crews are usually made up of three or four men: a pilot, the most experienced and best paid; a mechanic who troubleshoots and keeps the boat’s fuel tanks full; a guarantor trusted by the buyer and seller; and sometimes a navigator to chart the way.
  • 2-3 Tons!!???    Even with the new threats, the incentives remain huge. The pilot said a clean run of two or three tons can mean $100,000 for a day’s work. With that kind of money at stake, he said it wouldn’t be hard to find willing men to keep running the boats, even with the threat of military strikes. 
    • 1 “metric” ton = 1000 kilos. 
      • 2200 pounds. Chevy!! Used to measure in tons. Per my Dad!!
    • 1 kilo = 1000 grams.
    • So 1 ton is 1,000,000 grams. Street value $50 -100 per gram
    • So $50 – 100m dollars. 
  • Twelve hours later, the craft idled—ever so briefly—until what counterdrug officials call a “narco sub” appeared and stopped alongside. The boat’s three crewmen then transferred a half ton of cocaine—worth $12 million on the street—onto the semisubmersible. Skimming along the waterline, the new craft and crew headed north to Mexico, the next link before reaching America’s cocaine market.
    • ½ ton = 500 kilos = 500,000 grams. = 500,000 * 100 = $5,000,000

“I think it’s a serious situation,” said a drug-boat crew member who has ferried cocaine north along Colombia’s Caribbean coast. “What really worries me is them bombing us, you know? We’ve got families, kids—all of that.”

Politics

David Sacks: 

NY Times hit piece.

  • Sacks personally benefitting. 
  • No blind Trust because kids are minors. 
  • Sound like investigation, but all publicly availabe that he has 708 tech investments. 

Why Important. Because WE NEED business people in Government. 

  https://open.spotify.com/episode/65oG0YARECbXnFCbv2PTZp

David Sacks is a highly successful business person that is serving our government well and we should all be thankful.

From Chamath on the Topic. 

Tim Waltz Fraud. 

  • String on X and 
  • And another one. 
  • $9 billion—may have been fraudulent. 92 people charged.  
  • This includes funds meant for vulnerable populations, such as low-income families, people with disabilities, and those needing housing or autism support.

How the Scams Worked: Fraudsters exploited lax oversight by enrolling as providers, then billing for services that were never delivered. Examples include:

  • Housing Stabilization Services (HSS): Out-of-state individuals (dubbed “fraud tourists”) signed up remotely, submitted fake claims, and pocketed millions—e.g., two Philadelphia men allegedly defrauded $3.5 million without providing any services.
  • Integrated Community Supports (ICS): Providers rented apartments to Medicaid recipients and billed $100,000–$200,000 per client annually for nonexistent support, with one company (Ultimate Home Health Services) billing $1.1 million in just over a year for fake services.

California Budget Crisis – Wealth Tax

Unable to stem the exodus, California is again toying with retroactive taxes — targeting the wealthy regardless of whether they flee the state. Welcome to Hotel California, “you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”…https://t.co/FvJsTyrlh7 https://x.com/jonathanturley/status/1995823767226904895?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g

Trying to get on 2026 ballot. 

How do you tax NON LIQUID investments? 

200 billionaires are on Zillow right now! 

Recommendations

  • Molly’s Game (interview on All-In). 
  • Movie: The Spy Who Dumped Me. 
  • Bill Gurley on ferris
  • Sean RYan Show with Tobi Ludke and Jocko
  • Ethan Hawke on Rogan. 

#99 – Markets booming, AI, Tesla, Netflix, Drugs Read More »

#98 – Markets, Bitcoin, NVIDIA, Tesla, Politics

AI

Golf

  • Click Stick
  • Full Swing Golf Monitor
  • Tour Pro:
    • Fairway ~60%
    • 8ft putt 50%. 
    • Green in Regulation: 175-200 = 50%. 150-175 = 63%

Trump

    • Big Dinner with Trump and moguls. Ronaldo. Elon. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia
  • Trump with Mamdani
    • Congratulating him
    • Lot’s in common, like housing
    • Very nice remarks from Trump
    • “Shared purpose of serving New Yorkers and how to help with affordability”
    • Fascist? 
  • INSPIRING
    • People want a fight, but it was great and exemplar politics

Political Absurdity

My Post on X. Politicians and Investing: 

  • I need to hook up with Ron Wyden figure out how we can start investing together… He’s got something dialed in that I need to figure out. So much dedication and time he spends publicly standing up for our country in our rights and whatever else… 

“They’ve got the WORST policies. But I don’t talk about them. Because if I talk about it, they might change.” 

Larry Summers – Secretary of Treasury. 

  • Summers resigned his seat on the OpenAI board. 
  • Then Harvard announced it would take a fresh look at his and other faculty members’ ties to Epstein.
  • The immediate cause of Summers’s undoing was the release of a passel of messages in which he asked advice from his friend Epstein on “getting horizontal” with a woman he was pursuing.
  • “She’s already beginning to sound needy 🙂 nice,” Epstein noted

Markets

Bought: 

  • Tesla Down 20% 
  • Meta Down 26% 
  • VOO. Down ~5% . Why? Won’t get filthy rich, but will always be around. 

Bitcoin

  • $125,000 in October
  • $87,000 today. 
  • Down $38k or 30%. 

My Financial Acronyms

FATMAANN

Born: Jan 14, 2022 

Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, Nvidia

Up 160%. 85% without Nvidia. S&P 500 57%.

TAMPAN

Born: Nov 6, 2025

Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Apple, Nvidia

NVIDIA

NVIDIA Earnings Q3 2025

  • Record revenue for the third quarter ended October 26, 2025, of $57.0 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and up 62% from a year ago.

AI Build, Tesla, Nvidia

US Saudi Investment Forum. Full interview here. Elon and Jensen Huang. 

Play at 7.37 Work will be optional. Elon Musk says if current AI and robotics trends continue “money will stop being relevant in the future.” Then to Jensen. Hahaha

Play at 14.50.  Elon and Jenson announcing 500 mw or gw? Gazillion $’s. HaHaHa 

Play at 18.35. AI in Space. 

Netflix 

  • Per WSJ Bids for Warner Brothers.  
    • At the same time, Warner Discovery continues to move forward with plans to separate its assets into two companies: one to house its studios and streaming business, and the other comprising its cable networks.
  • Stock Split. 10:1

Recommendations

  • Get a hobby. 
  • Restrung my guitar. 
  • Writing a rhythm, lead and lyrics to a song.

#98 – Markets, Bitcoin, NVIDIA, Tesla, Politics Read More »

#97 – Golf, Tesla, Robotics, Markets

Agenda: 

  • Golf
  • Tesla & Robots

Apple

  • Iphone
  • Stock at all-time-high $273

Shutdown. Politicians should forgo paychecks perm!! 

Nelly Korda vs Grant Horvat

  • Same tees. Stroke play. 5 shots to her. Her course. ~6700 yards. 
  • 4th hole Par 3 207 yards. So not easy!!
  • Driver carry: 250 yds
  • 125 yd. Hitting PW. (LIKE ME!!). 9 iron uphill to 131. Easy swing. 
  • She hits even to “Down” on Driver. So don’t listen to those saying you have to hit on the upswing. 
  • She plays Taylor Made. Loves them!
  • She is so NICE and endearing. Charming. Smiling 100% of time.

Kai Trump set to play in first LPGA event. Invite due to large following. 

  • Will attend and play at UofM

Paige Spirinac cheating by stomping grass. I’ve totally DONE this!!! 

Key Prohibition (Rule 8.1a)

  • You must not take deliberate actions to improve the position or lie of your ball, or the area of your intended stance or swing, by altering physical conditions. This includes:
    • Touching, pressing down, or trampling grass, vegetation, or the ground around the ball.
    • Examples of breaches:
      • Standing on tall grass or weeds to push them down and aside, clearing a path for your stance or swing when you could have taken a stance without doing so.
      • Repeatedly stepping or stomping in the rough to flatten the area around the ball, improving the lie or backswing path.
      • Bending or breaking branches/grass unnecessarily while preparing your stance.

Blue Origin Landed Booster on Ocean vessel.

Encyclopedia Galactica

Markets – S&P 500

  • Markets down this week.
  • Correction should be expected. 

S&P500 Up 16, 2% off high. 

Tech: Up 20%, ~5% off high

Tesla

End of last Podcast was discussing Elon Comp package passing:

  • Play at 58.18. Stop 1:02. Scale of Optimus. We want Starwars, not Terminator. 
  • 1 million unit production line in Fremont. 10m unit production line in Austin.
  • Play at 1:14.50. Manufacturing Robots. 
    • Cars are Robots
    • Stop at 1:16. 

Robotics: Prediction of how USA vs China in Humanoid robotics will go over the next few years 

HUGE 

  1. This is analogous to SpaceX. Private company saves Country. 86% of Global cargo

  1. WE NEED ROBOTS!! Tesla is our ONLY hope. 
    1. General Intelligence Era (Robots work and encompass AGI).
    2. More Robots than humans by 2045. TAM = $200 trillion. 

Proxy Advisors

Glass Lewis and ISS facing antitrust probe. 

White House looking at rules to curb their influence. 

  • Makes no sense how ETFs are voted. 
  • Consolidates too much power in ETF managers. 

Delaware

I’ll say it again – boards that don’t move could be sued in Delaware for staying – and exposing shareholders to uncapped securities claims. https://x.com/bgurley/status/1988630110002421806?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g

Tesla Sales

Tesla outsold in Revenue the top 20 companies

Ford on Tesla

  • Remember Ford $13 billion loss on EVs since 2023
  • 1.6km of wires more! 

Politician’s Absurdity

PlayThis video is great. Government kills affordability of everything it touches! 

Play and don’t get too upset. This video by Roland Gutierrez is a perfect summary of why socialism is pretty much evil. Don’t be lazy. Work your ass off. You’ll be 1000x happier than the person who sat back and received some Government aide. Why? You earned it! 

Economic impact of Elon Musk. Last 4 years.

  • Salaries: $110 Billion
  • Taxes: $46 billion
  • Vendors: $173 B
  • $1 trillion income is taxes at $500 billion. 

California working on 5% tax “1-time” tax on wealth over $1Billion. 

  • 255 in CA
  • No such thing as one time. 
  • Mass exodus!

Irony and Paradox of people saying: 

Recommendations

#97 – Golf, Tesla, Robotics, Markets Read More »

#96 – Tesla $1 trillion Comp Package, Palantir, Netflix, NY Mayor

Markets

TAMPAN: Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Apple, Nvidia

Tesla

Competition with xPeng?

3 rules, motes, advantages, whatever:: Ai, Scale, Manufacturing software and hardware.

Compensation Plan

Live streaming Shareholder meeting. 

Headlines screaming: “1 Trillion pay package!!”  

Proxy here.

  • Shareholder final vote and reveal today. 
  • 1 Million Bots delivered and 1 Million Robotaxis!! 

Rules:

  • 12 Tranches. 12 Market Cap + 12 Operational 
  • Term: 10 years! 
  • Award: 1% of shares in form of RSU. 
  • Vest on (a) the Market Capitalization Milestone for such tranche and (b) a previously unmet Operational Milestone. 

12 Market Capitalization Milestones:

  • 1: $2 trillion
  • 2-10: $500 billion (to $6.5 trillion)
  • 11-12: $1 trillion (to $7.5 and $8.5 trillion

12 Operational Milestones

Product Goals

    1. 20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered
    2. 10 Million Active FSD Subscriptions
  • 1 Million Bots Delivered
  • 1 Million Robotaxis in Commercial Operation

Adjusted EBITDA Milestones

  1. $50 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  2. $80 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  3. $130 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  4. $210 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  5. $300 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  6. $400 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  7. $400 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA
  8. $400 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA

Schwab Swirl on X 

ETF ownership and voting rights 

Ford

Ford executives are in active discussions about scrapping the electric version of its F-150 pickup, according to people familiar with the matter, which would make the money-losing truck America’s first major EV casualty. 

The Lightning, once described by Ford as a modern Model T for its importance to the company, fell far short of expectations as American truck buyers skipped the electric version of the top-selling truck. Ford has racked up $13 billion in EV losses since 2023.

% of Global EV Sales

    • 25.7m BEV sales since 2019
    • 7.3m is Tesla. 
      • 28.4%  
  • NOT EVEN ONE other American car company!!! 

SAIC: https://saicusa.com/

Money Losing EV Makers

Lucid ranks #3 most cash burning EV maker globally with total reported cash burn of $14.4B behind Rivian $23.2 billion and Ford’s EV segment $15.5 billion. These ‘top 3’ have lost a combined $53.1 billion since inception. 

All shown companies, excluding Tesla, lost a combined $90.8 billion.

Palantir

Earnings Page

Play Alex’s opening remarks!!! Link Here. 

  • So humble 😝

Alex on Fentanyl and attacking boats. 

“114% – our Rule of 40 score! Announcing the highest sequential quarterly revenue growth guide in our company’s history, representing 61% year-over-year growth,

What Is the Rule of 40?Core Formula: Rev Growth + operating Margin

  • Revenue Growth: Year-over-year (YoY) increase in total revenue.
  • Adjusted Operating Margin.

Alex Letter to Shareholders 

This ascent has confounded most financial analysts and the chattering class, whose frames of reference did not quite anticipate a company of this size and scale growing at such a ferocious and unrelenting rate.

Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement.🤣

Headcount:

And yet, counterintuitively to many, including ourselves at times, our reluctance to abandon constraints has been a principal and driving force of our continued rise.

Our headcount is one manifestation of this disciplined approach. The casual expansion of our ranks would have diminished the need to lean even more heavily on the strength of our software and the Ontology and to ensure their continued maturation. The alternative would have been to rely on an army of bright minds to do work that would have obscured the platform’s weaknesses and ultimately hindered its development.

Henry Jaglom, the British film director, said in an interview with the Washington Post in 1994, citing his friend Orson Welles, “The enemy of art is the absence of limitations.”

The same is absolutely true in software development.

Netflix

  • KPop Demon Hunters
  • 325 million views. 
  • $10b kpop industry
  • Remember Gangnam Style: 
  • Black Pink Tour. Highest grossing tour by female group. 

Rumors:

  • Warner Brothers
  • Licensing Video podcasts from Sirius

Mandami

Services the New York City Mayor is Responsible For

  • Public Safety: Managing the New York City Police Department (NYPD) and Fire Department (FDNY), with approximately 30,000 police officers.
  • Education
  • Public Services and Infrastructure: Administering sanitation, public property maintenance, street maintenance, and parks improvements.
  • Housing and Economic Development.
  • Health and Social Services: Managing mental health services, homeless services, and programs like universal childcare and rental assistance.
  • Cultural and Community Services
  • City Planning and Regulation: Enforcing city and state laws, managing land use, city contracts, and agencies like the Department of City Planning and Landmarks Preservation Commission.
  • Appointments and Budget

(b) Approximate Budget by Revenue Source

The New York City budget for Fiscal Year 2026 is approximately $115.9 billion, the largest municipal budget in the U.S.. Revenue sources include:

  • Real Property Taxes: ~$34.97 billion in FY25, the largest single source, expected to grow in FY26 due to increased property assessments.
  • Personal Income Taxes (PIT) and Pass-Through Entity Tax (PTET): ~$17.28 billion (based on FY 2025 data, with modest growth expected for FY 2026).
  • Business Income Taxes: ~$11.95 billion (projected for FY 2026). 
  • Sales Taxes: ~$9.5 billion (estimated for FY 2026). 
  • State Categorical Grants: ~$7 billion (estimated for FY 2026). 
  • Federal Categorical Grants: ~$6.5 billion (estimated for FY 2026). 

Top 1-5% (incomes ~$300,000-$815,000): Likely contribute ~10-20% of PIT, or ~$1.7-$3.5 billion in FY 2025, equating to ~1.5-3% of the total budget. For FY 2026, this would be ~$1.8-$3.6 billion, or ~1.6-3.1% of the budget.

Closing

1929 book on Audio. 

The Diplomat. Wife and will watch season 2 now. 

Elon on Joe Rogan. 

The enemy of art is the absence of limitations

#96 – Tesla $1 trillion Comp Package, Palantir, Netflix, NY Mayor Read More »

#95 – Meta, Amazon, NFLX, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir, Apple

Markets

Meta, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir. Great companies. Here’s why!

 

Wealth Management Fees

Wealth Management fees. Paying XX Bank 1.5% a year to manage $5.5M. After 35 years is $6M in fees and ~$14M less than with Vanguard ETF.

AI

Talking to client, she asked for what I was reading information from… I was completely honest. I said I just typed it into AI. i]If you’re not using AI now you’re stupid. 

Gambling

Chauncey Billips arrested!! 

  1. The FBI says that NBA player Terry Rozier told the defendants that he was going to leave a game early on March 23, 2023, with an injury. The defendants then placed more than $200,000 of wagers on the unders for his prop bets, with Rozier leaving the game after nine minutes.  Those bets paid out tens of thousands of dollars in profits, and the defendants and Rozier counted the money at his house.

Markets

Fed Rate Cut

  • The latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate to between 3.75% and 4%
  • Education. Why Important:
  • Rate at which Fed Lends money to banks. 
  • Effects Money Market almost immediately. So kind of sucks. VMFXX’s 7-day yield 4.05% and SPAXX.
  • Juices economy. Less expensive to borrow, so can invest, build etc.. 

Apple

  • Slow to AI. But will figure it out. 
  • iPhone 17 awesome. 

Meta 

  • Earning Results
  • Revenue $50b. Record! 
  • UCAN 43% (Side note…S&P 500 is international).
  • CapEx $50b YTD vs $24b last year. Double!!!
  • Stock down 11%

Amazon

  • Up 10% plus in after-hours. 
  • $180b in the quarter
  • I’ll never sell: 
    • Package everyday. 
    • Andy Jasse 
    • Memo culture.

Tesla

Tesla Earnings. 

    • Record Revenue. $28b.
  • Energy up 44% !!!!
    • Revenue $3.4b and $2.3 cost. $1b in profit
    • US grid is only 50% productive. Can double with batteries. 
  • Other Services up 25%. 

Elon Remarks. Play at 11.00 Play thur 15.00

  • Leader in Realworld AI. Shockwave

Dan Ives: Overall for Tesla this was another step in the right direction as Robotaxis should be deployed in 8-10 cities by year end. Demand looks stable (China good) for Tesla and now the focus is autonomous and robotics.  We believe this is an AI driven story into 2026. $600 PT. 

No Drivers in Austin prior to year end. Taking a VERY conservative strategy!

Optimus: V3. 

Nvidia

Palantir

PLAY Jensen Huang on the importance of of Palantir and their ontology stack using Nvidia. This clip is from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) October 2025 event, where he highlighted Palantir’s Ontology platform as a key enterprise AI stack during announcements about new partnerships between NVIDIA and Palantir.

Alex and Jensen speaking together. 

  • Play art 1:50. Jensen talking about Palantir as largest growing enterprise platform. 

Autonomous Driving

As I’ve always said. We want numerous players in the space. Waymo, Zoox, Uber, etc… So they can all fight and influence Government regulation

NVIDIA Drive Software

NEWS: Nvidia today announced it is partnering with Uber to help build the “world’s largest Level 4 autonomous fleet, targeting 100,000 Robotaxis starting in 2027.”

“Nvidia will work with Uber to scale the world’s largest level 4-ready mobility network, using the company’s next-generation robotaxi and autonomous delivery fleets, the new Nvidia Drive AGX Hyperion 10 autonomous vehicle development platform and Nvidia Drive software purpose-built for L4 autonomy.

These vehicles will be developed in collaboration with Nvidia and other Uber ecosystem partners, using Nvidia Drive. Nvidia and Uber are also working together to develop a data factory accelerated by the Nvidia Cosmos world foundation model development platform to curate and process data needed for autonomous vehicle development.

Netflix

Earnings Letter

Earnings Call

10:1 stock split. 

Highlights:

    • Talked about personalized ad targeting. THIS IS HUGE!
    • KPop Demon Hunters, which is now our most popular film ever (325M views)
  • Top 10 movies here. 
  • Sharing view % growing (see charts)
  • Why Netflix?
    • Grown organically. WB and other mergers/acquisitions are a mess: Cultural and bureaucratic. Same core execs: Ted, Greg and David! 
    • Perfect mix of creative and Tech. No-one even close in tech. This helps ad money! 

Revenue and YoY % growth by Region:

  • UCAN: $5.1b 17%
  • EMEA: $3.7b 18%
  • LatAm: $1.4b 10%
  • APAC $1.4b 21%
  • ~43-45% of Revenue is US UCAn.

Interesting how they never pro-actively addressed the cancellation-call from Elon Musk. 

Be positive and be in a bubble if you need to be. 

#95 – Meta, Amazon, NFLX, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir, Apple Read More »

#94 – Crypto, Leverage, Commodities, Markets, Tesla

Open

Up Next

  • Palmer Lucky on Joe Rogan
  • Breaking 50 with Steph and Bryson

Security

  • US Bank Sharing:
    • Coinbase
    • Carta
    • Intuit. 

Markets

Yes there could be a crash. But remember economy is not same as Stock Market

Gold/Silver/Bitcoin

  • Debasement of Fiat?
  • Sign of mania!? 
  • Foreign governments buying. 

TSMC

Year-over-year, third quarter revenue increased 30.3% In US dollars, third quarter revenue was $33.10 billion, which increased 40.8% year-over-year. Gross margin for the quarter was 59.5%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin was 45.7%.

International ETF’s. VXUS. 

Nvidia

  • Jensen Huang 50 direct Reports. From 2023
  • Every employee should have AI agents. Multiplying productivity by 10 to 100 X.

Crypto

Bitcoin vs Fiat

At its core, Elon’s point boils down to Bitcoin’s fundamental design: it’s secured by proof-of-work (PoW), a consensus mechanism where miners worldwide compete to validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain. This isn’t just busywork—it’s computationally intensive, requiring massive amounts of real-world electricity to power specialized hardware (like ASICs). In essence, every Bitcoin transaction or block is “stamped” with proof of energy expenditure, making it extremely hard to fake or manipulate the network without burning even more energy.

Contrast that with traditional fiat currencies (like the USD or EUR), which governments can print endlessly, leading to inflation and devaluation over time—Elon calls this “fake” because it’s not backed by anything tangible beyond trust in the issuer. Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap (21 million coins) and energy-backed security make it more resistant to that kind of debasement. It’s like digital gold, but instead of mining from the earth, you’re mining with electricity, turning energy into scarcity and value.

Leverage in Crypto

Last Friday: Bitcoin dropped ~$121k – 110. So 10%.  

Crypto Bets

$19b wiped out. 

2 Accounts made $160m placing bets minutes before Trump News of China. 

Deposit $10,000. Lever by 10x to $100,000. Debt is $90,000

Crypto currency down 10%. $100,000 to $90,000

Account gone. 

Leverage Example: 

Regular brokerage account. 

 

Regular Leverage
Investment $1000 $1000
Loan/Borrow – $800
Investment $1000 $1800
Investment $500 $900 50% crash
Loan 0 $800 Force Liquidation to pay loan
Investment $500 $100
Loss $500 or 50% $900 or $90%

 

Leverage in Crypto Exchange

  • Coinbase 10X 
  • Binance 100x !!?? 30-50x. !!! WTF 
  • Example: 
    • $10,000. 
    • Lever to $500k. 
    • Market up 1% = $550. $50k profit. 
    • Market down 1%… you can’t even cover. YOU’RE LIQUIDATED.  

Reports: Specifically, around 1.6 million traders across major exchanges (including Binance) got wiped out on their leveraged positions, with over $19 billion in total liquidations in just hours

Tesla

Delaware Incorporation

From TeslaBoomerMom on the Court proceeding on Wed Oct 15. 

$345m in legal fees! 

With the help of some AI (ahem Grok) it seems about 27% or ~$2B of Delaware’s state revenue is derived from “incorporation” related fees. Another ~$2B  at least to the private sector (law firms, etc…) to support. So if companies lose faith in the predictability of the legal landscape and continue fleeing or going elsewhere to incorporate, it will have material financial ramifications to the state and its people. 

EV Adoption Globally

From the WSJ

China EV Sales

This is significant. 

$270,000 yuan is ~$38k. #1 seller is 40,000 Yuan or $6000.

General Motors

General Motors issues profit warning – $1.6 billion hit from EV overcapacity. @GM GM just filed a form 8-K informing that it “approved charges of $1.6 billion in GM North America in the three months ended September 30, 2025”. 

GM expects it will be unable to sell its EVs after policy changes. 

This $1.6 billion charge comes only 10 months after GM recognized $5 billion in charges in China. 

Tesla FSD

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Joe Rogan: John Kiriakou is a former CIA counter-terrorism officer and the first U.S. official to confirm the agency’s torture of detainees. Punished for being a whistleblower, he served nearly 2 years in a federal prison.

1929 book

Andrew Ross Sorkin on All-in

 

#94 – Crypto, Leverage, Commodities, Markets, Tesla Read More »

Navigating Financial Assets in Divorce

Navigating Financial Assets in Divorce

  • Understand everything!

  • Get help if needed!

Divorce is messy, and when you’re untangling complex financial assets like brokerage accounts, RSUs, stock options and retirement plans it is imperative you have a comprehensive understanding of all details. A strong attorney and financial advisor can help tremendously. If you’re not 100% clear on the what and why of the financial divide, you might be getting railroaded. 

This post is in no way financial or legal advice, but simply aims to highlight complexities and nuances that can sway the balance of assets divided.

1 – Taxable Brokerage Accounts: Watch the Cost Basis

Dividing stocks in a taxable brokerage account seems straightforward: split the shares and move on. Under IRC 1041 transferring brokerage assets to a spouse and in divorce is tax free, but the nuance is understanding the “Cost Basis” of the shares being transferred. 

Why? Because, when you eventually sell that stock someday you’re going to pay tax on the gain, measured as the difference between the sale price and the cost basis. 

Imagine your husband has 1000 shares of Company DIV in his brokerage account currently trading at $200 (total value of $200,000). He gives you 500 shares as agreed in the divorce settlement with a fair value of $100,000. All good, right? 

What if those shares were acquired at different points in time? Maybe some were acquired for $50 and others for $150. What if he gave you the shares acquired for $50? When you sell those shares, you’ll owe tax on the sale price of $200 less the cost basis of $50, or $150/share. So your taxable gain is $150 * 500 shares = $75,000. You owe taxes on a gain of $75,000. 

On the other hand, he sells his 500 shares later for $200, but his cost basis is $150. So he’s only paying tax on a gain of $50/share. His taxable income is 500 shares * $50, or $25,000. 

In this case a higher tax liability was shifted to the wife!

Key Takeaway: You need to understand the Cost/Tax basis of financial assets. 

2 – Restricted Stock Units (RSUs)

RSUs—company stock granted as compensation—are common in tech and executive pay but tricky in divorce due to vesting schedules and tax rules.

Quick primer: Generally an employee is granted RSU’s annually as part of compensation and they vest over a period of time; for example 4 years. One could be granted 100 RSU’s of Company DIV on Jan 1, 2024 that vest 25% annually. So 25 RSU’s vest or become available every year for 4 years.

Understanding Vesting and Service Periods

The tricky part of splitting RSU’s in a divorce is determining how many RSU’s are/were Community Property (CP) prior to Date of Separation (DoS). 

For example, if DoS is Dec 31, 2024, prior to any RSU’s vesting, are any RSU’s included in CP? 

The short answer is likely “YES” as the husband was earning those options during the marriage. A vest period is also commonly referred to as a “service period”. So he was earning those RSU’s while he was serving in employment during the marriage. The wife here would/should argue that 364/365 of those RSU’s are CP.

This can get very complicated and confusing. What if all the options “cliff” vest after 4 years of service. What if they vest in non-conforming numbers: like 10% after 1 year, 20% two years, 30% three years and 40% at year 4?   

Key takeaway: the wife is generally entitled to some portion of RSU’s if they were granted prior to DoS! 

Cash vs. RSUs

Most company stock plans do not permit the transfer of “unvested” RSU’s. Therefore, you might carefully think thru, whether your settlement requires:

  1. The transfer of shares after they vest, or
  2. Negotiate a cash settlement now for those unvested shares. There are assumptions that go into this analysis that can materially affect the calculation; including Stock Price and Tax rates.

3 – Stock Options

Stock options give the employee the right to buy Company DIVR stock at a predetermined price; referred to as the exercise or strike price. The exercise price is the value of the underlying stock of Company DIVR on the grant date; so the options only have value if Company DIVR goes up in price. Stock options can be comple

x to understand, but here are a few key takeaways: 

  1. If the options are vested, you likely should negotiate taking ½. Many company stock plans will allow a change in ownership of non-qualified stock options.j

Why take the options and not cash? Again, very complex to explain, but a powerful aspect of “options” is inherent leverage. Long story short: If you think the stock will go up over time, you’re likely better off holding the options, than asking for cash. 

  1. Similar to RSU’s if there are unvested stock options on the table you should negotiate a cash payout or variable compensation arrangement when those options vest. 

If the husband works for a non-public company he could be receiving ISO stock options, which makes the analysis even more complex. 

Key Takeaway: Options can be very complex and very valuable; it is imperative that you understand the holdings and al

l the terms and make sure you’re getting your fair share.

4 – Spousal Support and Capturing Variable Income

Spousal support or “alimony” is often a component if divorce settlement. The wife and husband may ultimately agree to a fixed dollar amount to be paid to the wife for a set number of years. In our example here, the husband works in tech and it’s likely that RSU’s are a large % of his compensation (it’s not uncommon to be between 30% – 50%).

It is imperative that you consider the future value of RSU’s in spousal support. It seems obvious but sometimes the attorneys only look at fixed pay and a bonus assumption. But you need to look at future RSU’s as they can be extremely valuable.  

Key takeaway: If negotiating spousal support based on current or future earnings you MUST understand how RSU’s fit in the picture.  

5. Retirement Accounts

Retirement accounts may include past and current 401(k) plans, IRA’s and Roth IRAs. These accounts are very common and fairly straight-forward, so there isn’t as much complexity. The obvious is ensuring you have a comprehensive understanding of all the accounts in existence and ensuring paper-work (QDRO’s for example) is filed accurately and timely.

How might someone casually hide or not disclose? 

  • Simply not disclose the accounts. 
  • Liquidate old 401(k) to cash – paying the tax and penalty – just to eliminate their existence. 
  • Roll some balance of known IRA’s into newly created accounts at a different brokerage; and of course not disclose. 

Key takeaway: Understand the full universe of accounts and review transaction history! 

6. Other Financial Assets

Don’t overlook:

  • Employee Stock Purchase Plans (ESPPs): Discounted stock buys are divisible but need tracing around DoS.
  • Crypto Accounts: Volatile, with basis issues like stocks; hidden wallets are common.
  • Margin Loans: Debt against brokerages reduces divisible value—check statements.
  • Deferred Compensation: Unvested plans need expert valuation.
  • Pensions: Less common now but valuable; require QDROs and actuarial analysis.
  • Life Insurance and annuities: Very complex and lot’s of potential value. 

Key Takeaway: Understand EVERYTHING!

Final Takeaway

Divorce demands vigilance with financial assets. Tax basis, vesting schedules, and variable income can shift outcomes materially. Work with a divorce attorney, financial advisor, and potentially forensic accountant to uncover assets, value them accurately, and negotiate from a position of strength in understanding. Don’t let complexity cost you; it can be overwhelming so if the numbers are big, get help. 

Understand everything! Be nice and be confident. 

For illustrative purposes, and in order to keep the examples flowing and easier to understand, we’ll: 

  1. Use Company DIVR that has a current stock price of $200. 
  2. Let’s assume the husband works in tech and is highly compensated.

Navigating Financial Assets in Divorce Read More »

#93 – Markets, Investing, Netflix, Tesla, Nvidia, XaI

Open

 

Katie Porter: Governor of CA. Can we just get some smart rational leaders?! 

Music: 

  • Every major has a corresponding minor. 
  • Major: WWHWWWH 
  • C: CDEFGAB
  • Minor: 123456 = Am

Markets

All time highs!  

  • Market up 4x in 10 years. 

$100,000 10 yrs ago: 

VOO = $400,000

VGT = $800,000

Apple = $1m 

NFLX = $1.1m

TSLA = $2.8m 

NVIDIA = $30m

100,000 = $400,000 now

 

My NFLX was $10k, now ~$900k.

 

Symbol Total Returns (Daily)
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year
AAPL 16% 86% 129% 382% 930%
AMZN 23% 94% 39% 135% 718%
GOOG 51% 150% 241% 330% 675%
META 22% 438% 178% 356% 676%
MSFT 29% 129% 160% 401% 1185%
NFLX 70% 430% 123% 239% 1002%
NVDA 45% 1434% 1229% 2668% 29157%
QQQ 26% 129% 123% 252% 517%
TSLA 80% 94% 205% 2380% 2701%
VGT 31% 146% 147% 306% 696%
VOO 19% 93% 111% 160% 300%

 

Investment over time: 

At age 25 max your 401k at $23,500 and save an extra $1,000/month. Increase by $1000/mo annually until age 50.

You should have over $10m by age 50. (below shows $13.5m with 10% returns.

Netflix

WokeFlix. 

  • Everyone will hate something!!

Greg Peters – Co CEO:

  • “Go with God and try to monetize the heck outta that.”Good philosophy for LIFE! 
  • Still really the only PURE streaming play

Tesla

Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla Compensation Plan

  • Structure: 12 tranches; each tranche vested only upon achieving both a market cap milestone and an operational goal.
  • Milestones: 12 market cap targets starting at $100B and increasing by $50B each up to $650B
  • Done in 2023. 

Stock was basically $20 and 10X!!!   20x now.

Elon Musk’s 2025 Proposed Tesla Compensation Plan

  • Structure: Similar to 2018 with 12 tranches of restricted stock. 
  • Milestones: 12 market cap targets from $2T to $8.5T

FSD v14. Watch the vides. Parking in Garages, fast-food drive-thru’s, pulling over for ambulance, etc… 

 

Tesla is the world leader in:

(1) Real-world AI (2) Robotics and (3) Manufacturing advanced integrated hardware and software at scale. This 3rd point is under-appreciated, but is key to profitability.

XAI

XAI/Grok, Gemini/Google, OpenAI/ChatGPT, 

Jensen Huang:

Play video here

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