Opening

Golf

PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

• 156 players. Top 70 make cut.

Qualification Criteria

California Budget

• $12 billion budget deficit.  Newsom is proposing to close the deficit by rolling back state-funded insurance coverage for adults without legal immigration status, cutting coverage for weight loss drugs like Ozempic

1. California: 13.3%
2. Hawaii: 11.0%
3. New York: 10.9%
4. New Jersey: 10.75%
5. Oregon: 9.9%

Investing

• $1000 to every kid.

Home Alarm: $45/ month

Markets

Tariffs

Tariff Game Theory: China has to blink because everyday that passes every company is studying and implementing supply chain changes.

So much panic in last month or so.

• Now Flat year to date
• If investing on April 7.   You are up 17% and 29%
• Downturns is when you make money!!!

Netflix

• All time high: $1182. Up 29% YTD.
• $500 billion market cap.
• Netflix said on Wednesday 94 million subscribers use its advertising-supported tier.

Buffet

• Becoming old. 94 years old. Legend.
• I’m still pissed he didn’t buy Tesla.

Coinbase

• Ransom
• Turning it around. Will pay $20m reward to help find attackers!!!

Tesla

• Stilll planning to go live with Robo-taxi in Austin in June. Shares could explode.
  • $345 today. $480 ATH.
  • If you bought Tesla 10 years ago. You’re up 20x. 35-36% annualized returns.
• Robots dancing shown to Crown Prince and President Trump in Saudi.
• Talk in Saudi:
  • Robots and wanting your own C3P0 or R2-D2 and productivity unlock. Universal “High Income”.
  • How are we doing on Robotaxis. Robots on wheels. Bringing robotaxi to the Kingdom.

Apple

• ATH $258. Now at $211. Was $172
• WHat is a buy-back?

More of Eddy Cue testimony here.

Alphabet/ Google

• Search is dead.
• Cloud, Youtube, Google  Biz suite alive and well.

DOGE

Big Balls

These kids are so hard core. No weekends. They know they’re racing against a media and political clock that won’t thank them for their service.

Requiring receipts: “They were basically partying on taxpayer money.”

Recommendations:

• Friends and Neighbors
• Theo Von with David Spade. Listening to Ben Affleck.

Google

Earnings on April 24, 2025

Microsoft

• Revenue up 13% and Operating income up 16%.

Meta

• Revenue up 16% YoY and operating income up 27%!
• 3.4 billion unique users they estimate.
• Investment thesis:
  • Instagram and Reels. WhatsApp
  • AI
  • Physical glasses

Play at 2:05. Morning routine. Dropping F-bomb! Socially awkward. “I’m really smooth!”  Does wonders for confidence!!   🤣  Smooth talker. Self-effacing.

Earnings release.

Netflix

• All time highs. $1100+
• Recession proof.

Tesla

shared a comment from its Board Chair.

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company. This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published)

Autonomous

FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees

Trump Admin to ease restrictions

Tesla has secured a 2 year exemption to run FSD on public roads in Norway

Tesla and NHTSA crash Data

• So 10x safer than human alone
• https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

Tesla Semi progress. Tesla has announced that they will be building 46 Semi truck megawatt level charging sites in the next couple years. They will all be built by early 2027.

Waymo has announced they are now providing over 250,000 paid Robotaxi trips per week, up from 200,000 per week two months ago.

Slate Car company

• Why do I feel like Slate is gonna be the Android to Tesla’s Apple.I

Anduril & Palantir

• Leaders in defense and warfare.
• This video is sick! Electro-magnetic pulse to take drones down.
• Ted Talk with Palmer Lucky.

I like these leaders (Palmer and Alex Karp).

Economy/Govt

Warren Buffet on importance of reducing trade deficit.

Tariffs
Great post from Ackman. Kind of game theory on why China has incentive to settle.

DOGE

$250 MILLION for “Transparency for the Uzbekistan Cotton Industry”

Recommendations:

• Palmer Lucky.
• Theo Von and Zuck.

Markets

Markets are volatile, but its very important to keep things in perspective.

• S&P 500 16% off all time high.
• 5 and 10 year annualized returns of 15% and 11%.
• CAPE Ratio still high at 33.

Tesla

“The reality is, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars.”  

Letter and Financials

FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco

• Model Y best selling car on Earth. 2 years in row. Transition lines in all factories (Fremont, Austin, Shanghai, Berlin) in ~6-8 weeks
• World leader in real-world AI. Unsupervised self-driving will dominate the US.
• Leader in manufacturing. No other EV biz in US makes money and even ICE divisions will struggle with tariffs
• Tesla stressed their focus on localizing supply chain
• They will “turn-on” Austin, then other cities push-button
• Millions of cars driving autonomously mid to late next year
• Optimus
• China: Optimus Humanoid Robot will be #1 with China in spots 2-10

Investor Call here on YouTube

• Will spend less time at DOGE
• Play 12:12: future of company is based on large scale autonomous cars and robots. At scale at low cost. Value is staggering. Believes Tesla will be most valuable company in world by far. More than next 5 combined. (so $15 trillion?).
• Play at 20:20. 1000’s of Optimus robots working if factories by end of this year. Will scale faster than any product in history. Million units/yr in 4-5 years. 2030 1 million per year (maybe 2029).
• Play at 35:40 . Model Y’s on track for paid rides in Austin in June. Many other cities by end of year. S-curve. Robotaxi’s operating at scale in millions by 2H 2026.
• Play at 40:16. Many days without knowing if improvement is happening. 10,000 miles/ intervention. Teslas driving everywhere in Austin. Average person drives 10,000 miles/ year.
• Play at 47:18.  “Waymo money”. Tesla costs 20% less. Doesn’t see anyone competing with Tesla at present. Tesla will have 99% or 90% something market share! Millions of cars deployed. Risk: Regulatory risk. In a few years will have 10m cars on road.
• Play at 1:01.30. We make also make our own cells! Tesla is the most competitive battery.
• Play at 1:11.58. Why are people still buying other car, like BMW’s. This is an Iphone moment.
• Elon: “Reality is most people won’t buy cars in future”.  Flip phone analogy. Not perfect, but not bad.
• Elon: “Buying a gasoline car is like riding a horse. People still do it, but rare.”
• Play at 1:30.25. Who is ahead in Drones and AI? Vassal state. 100% of drones have a reliance on China. “China is amazing!”. Humanoid robots. No company in world that can match Tesla. Concerned that #’s 2-10 are Chinese companies.

Conclusion:
Buy the future