Life updates:
Why talk about Politics and government?
- Has a profound effect on business.
- U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023
- Texas netted the largest number of movers in one-way U-Haul® equipment in 2023, marking the third consecutive year it has finished atop the U-Haul Growth Index.
- Florida ranks right behind Texas among growth states for the third year in a row, followed by North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
- For the fourth year in a row, California reflected the largest net loss of one-way movers.
The role of Government
“Government has three primary functions. It should provide for military defense of the nation. It should enforce contracts between individuals. It should protect citizens from crimes against themselves or their property. When government– in pursuit of good intentions tries to rearrange the economy, legislate morality, or help special interests, the cost come in inefficiency, lack of motivation, and loss of freedom. Government should be a referee, not an active player.”
― Milton Friedman
Government inefficiency
Example: Contained within the 2021 infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program authorized more than $42 billion in grants, to “connect everyone in America to reliable, affordable high-speed internet by the end of the decade.”
- Not one single household connected.
- Starlink could do now for a fraction of the cost. Its entirely obvious.
- Among several examples, the senators noted that NTIA’s BEAD proposal “requires subgrantees to prioritize certain segments of the workforce, such as ‘individuals with past criminal records’ and ‘justice-impacted […] participants.'”
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gurstner on FCC
Ben and Mark Show: Key Silicon Valley leaders turning on Democratic policies. They have Billions $ at stake and do not want to talk about politics, but its paramount to the future of tech and innovation in the US.
- For example:
- Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence.
- If we don’t lead someone else will
- Refusal to legislate, yet punitive…no banking. Gensler
- AI: Regulating too soon. Need to wait for development.
- Energy: Europe is the ghost of xmas future. Need to be energy independent!
- Tax: Structure! Unrealized Gains! – Not rate discussion.
- This IS IN the budget proposal. Marketed as a “billionaire tax”.
- Unrealized gains kills startups. How do you pay cash with PAPER money!?!?
- California. In peak years (2021 for example) up to 50% of tax revenue from top 1000 persons!
- Regulatory agencies are punitively blocking startups from being acquired.
- And, the government is currently proposing a tax on unrealized capital gains, which would absolutely kill both startups and the venture capital industry that funds them.
- Stone-walled by Dems. But both friends and supporters of Obama.
- He was curious and interested in business.
- Jump the shark moment was attacking Zuckerberg for donating Billions to charity; claiming it was a “tax dodge”.
- Finally in their words:
Trump or Kamala?
- Key to understand is that supporting Trump or Kamala is that its a support for POLICY.
- Kamala
- The entire “switcheroo” is odd. No primary for the dems? I like Dean Phillips. Also good interview on All-In. I also really liked Tulsi Gabbard and RFK; who was literally kicked out of the party.
- What policies to support? I don’t know. Hasn’t spoken or taken questions since nomination.
- Trump:
- Capitalist and pro-business. Freedom of speech.
- Reasonable border policy. Graduates with degrees get auto-matic green card.
- No more forever wars.
- Supports independent energy. We will be on oil forever. Just listen to Jamie Dimon. 1:20 mark.
- Pro energy for Oil, Gas AND nuclear.
- LET ME BE CLEAR. We can and should move to renewable: but we need Transition plan!
- Tough on crime. Not even tough, but basic security.
- Abortion: Will NOT create a federal “ban” or policy. Will stay at the states. Listen to this. From All-In podcast. A must listen to really understand him. 28:13.
Like him or love him, he was shot in the head/ear and survived and yelled “fight, fight, fight”. As Elon said “you can’t feign bravery”. People died. Even Zuck is on Trumps side at this point.
Tesla
Stocks and Economy
- Market Correction.
- On Monday the 3rd day of “down”. Market down 8-9%, Tech 13%, Nvidia 28%:
- AI fatigue. Lack of results that generate revenue.
- Japan monetary policy. Yen Carry Trade.
- Middle East instability
- AND everything is over-priced!
- CAPE at 35. Since 2000 Average is 27.
- 1999: 44
- 2009 after GFC: 13
- 38+ at end of 2021
- Corrected to 27 mid-2022.
- 30 probably reasonable.
- Stocks I still like:
- Netflix (17% YoY rev growth to $19.6b and 27% margin)and Tesla (big surprise).
- Netflix: NFL, Squid Game 2 and literally everything you need/can watch. Profitable and growing steadily.
- All Mag 7 and now Meta looking really smart with “open” AI in Lama.
- Microsoft: Open AI is unbelievable.
- Tesla. You already know.
Recommendations:
- All In podcast with Trump.
- Rogan and Jordan Peterson
- Andreesen Horowitz.
- Presumed Innocent. – Apple
- Your Honor – Netflix (airplane qualification)
- Land of Bad – Netflix (airplane)
