September 2024

#69 – Diddy, Markets, PE Ratios, NY Mayor, SpaceX, Meta

Life

Yoga life.

  • College admissions: 
  • Tulane:
    • Tuition and Fees: $69k
    • Housing: $11k. 
    • Meals: $8k
    • Books: $1k
    • Total: $88,000. * 4 = $352,000
  • Wow. College can be very expensive!

Diddy

https://youtu.be/NKMtZm2YuBE?si=irc0uxpLLHbHpBjE&t=53

What’s up with Diddy? 

  • His fashion label, Sean John. Not a bad name
  • The rapper is “going to fight this with all of his energy and all of his might,” and during a court hearing argued that the so-called freak-offs — marathon sexual productions that prosecutors say involved hired sex workers and women coerced to perform sexual acts for the gratification of Combs and others — were consensual, if unconventional. “Is it sex trafficking?” he asked in court last week. “No, not if everybody wants to be there.”
  • Lot’s of tapes recordings. So be careful if you go to a sex party. Know you’re getting recorded. Be cool with it. 
  • Authorities say they seized “more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricant

Markets

Everything is up. S&P 500 up 20% YTD.

As a reminder: 10%: Double in 7 years. 7% double in 10 years. 

What is PE or Price to Earnings?  PE definition and explanation

  • When you make an investment and pay cash you’re looking to receive more cash ultimately than you put in. 
  • Price to Earnings Ratio. 
    • Value of company; i.e. Market Cap. Divided by Earnings (12 months). 
    • Example: 
      • Company is valued at $100m. Earns $5m per year. PE = 20. 
      • Could think of it as 20 years to get your money back thru earnings. 

Cape Ratio

Cape Ratio (like PE) average of top 500 US Companies since 1950 is about 20. Now it is at 35. Seems high right? Don’t be surprised if there is a 10-20% correction in next 6-12 months. 

NY Mayor

Didn’t toe the line and he is paying the price. 

Eric Adams indicted. 

Bill Ackman explains. 

Eric Speech

FAA Hates SpaceX

Tesla and SpaceX

  • Lies and stupidity by FAA head. 
  • I somehow got invited to Tesla event!?

Meta

Orion Glasses 

Good AI strategy. 

Can they do hardware?

Netflix

All time high. 

Still the best pure streaming play. 

Southwest

Recommendations:

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#68 – Markets, Interest Rates, AI, Netflix, SpaceX

Personal

  • Yoga
  • Golf Lessons

Markets – All time highs

Stock Market Investing

  • S&P500 up 20%
  • VGT up 19%
  • Dividends/value up 11%. 3.36% yield
  • Best Retirement Investments: Dividend paying ETFs: like SCHD or HDV

ETF Investment Strategies

  • VGT: you’re up 2.7x. $100k = $270k
  • VOO: up 2x  = $200k
  • At 7% annualized return = double in 10 years. 
  • At 10% annualized return = double in 7 years. 
  • At 20% annualized return = double in 4 years

Impact of interest rates on investments

  • Fed just cut by 0.5%. First cut since 2020. I.e. Covid. 
  • Current federal-funds rate is at 5.25% to 5.50%, 
  • 2.00% to 2.25% by year-end 2026.

So what does this mean? 

  • Money Market returns will go down. 
  • Mortgage rates should come down. 
  • Credit card payments down. 
  • Car loans down. Good for Tesla. 

Government Debt per WSJ

According to recent data, interest expense currently makes up around 13% of the US government budget, representing the third largest spending category behind Social Security and Medicare.

Demand for AI

I’m trying to use AI. 

  • University research. 
  • Moved table in PDF to excel. 
  • Asked for an amortization schedule. 
  • Asked for references in prior podcasts. 

Listen to Larry Ellison explaining the crazy demand for AI. Who’s spending? Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, Tesla, SalesForce, and many more. 

Netflix:

  • All time high.
  • I still think its recession proof! 
  • Seems like Q4 subscription #’s should be HUGE! WHY?  
  • New events:  Boxing: Tyson and Jake Paul
    • The fight, which will be held over eight two-minute rounds, will now take place on November 15 at the At&T Stadium in Texas.Tyson, 58 is 30 years older than Jake. 
    • Squid game: Squid Game Season 2 will premiere on Dec. 26, The success of Squid Game on Netflix led to a 4.4 million subscriber increase in the third quarter of 2021. Most-watched series: Squid Game became Netflix’s most-watched series and the most-watched program in 94 countries.
    • NFL Football x-mas. Netflix has an early Christmas gift for you — but it won’t fit under the tree. On Dec. 25, 2024, we’ll be the global home of the NFL’s two Christmas Day marquee games: The Super Bowl LVII-winning Chiefs will face the Steelers at 1 pm ET; then at 4:30 pm ET, the Ravens will take on the Texans. 

Tesla

  • Tesla Semi: PepsiCo drivers love it. PepsiCo said today that their drivers who operate the company’s Tesla Semi trucks have reported that, after driving the electric truck, they don’t want to go back to driving a diesel truck.
  • Pretty flat for last 4 years. I think it will pop. Needs to demonstrate real-world AI. resolution. 

Elon (SpaceX) on All In Podcast Summit

  • 15:40 on Fresh Water dumping and $140k fine. Lot’s more discussion on how to implement the Government Efficiency Commission. 
  • Defense Dept budget vs interest. 
  • Inspiration
    • Uncrewed landing to Mars in 2026 
    • Crews in 2028 if successful (and if government gets out of way). 
    • Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years

Recommendations:

 

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#67 – Kids 401k, Markets, Govt inefficiency, Nvidia, SpaceX

Life is short. Have perspective. Find your purpose. Have fun!

Trump & Kamala Debate: Boring and horrible. Name calling. Accusations. Nothing interesting or intelligent.

Markets:

  • YTD: S&P up 16%.
  • Tech (QQQ) up  15%.
  • High Quality up 10%.

Building Wealth for your kids:
My Blog analysis on Building wealth for kids.

  • 529s and Roth 401k.
  • Small investments over time create generational wealth.

Nvidia

Government vs Capitalists: 

  • All in at 56.30: Friedberg: Do you want someone who has lived in government or is not a government operative? Career civil servants vs. capitalists.
  • 1.17.40.  Government spending is 50% of GDP. So could say ½ of people are employed directly or indirectly by government. Free market system is finished if there are more “takers” than “makers”.

Government Efficiency (oxymoron):

Donald Trump on Government efficiency commission:

From WSJ: Trump Proposes 15% Tax Rate for Some Companies and a Role for Elon Musk in Government

Elon Musk has said that all laws/regs should be auto-repealed after 20 years or some time. Otherwise we’re in a web of bureaucracy.

Getting a Loan from DOE is near impossible. I have a story.

Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi day on October 10. 

SpaceX

The company confirmed that the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying the crew reached its peak altitude of 870 miles.

That distance surpassed the record set by NASA’s 1966 Gemini 11 mission

Also!!! 60 day delay for Starship launch. 

  • “Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space.”
  • https://www.spacex.com/updates/

Nuclear Power imperative by Bill and Brad.

Recommendations:

Bryson DeShambeau on YouTube:

Podcasts:

TV: Wyatt Earp on Netflix. 

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Building Generational Wealth for Your Kids

Build Wealth and Financial Literacy for your Children

You don’t have to be independently wealthy or rich to set your kids up for financial success. In fact, most parents with modest income can take steps early on to set their children on a path to wealth and financial acumen.

Each of your children should have (3) investment accounts:

  1. 529 College Savings Plan

  2. Custodial Roth IRA

  3. Custodial Brokerage Account

WHY? Besides the obvious idea of investing and saving, this is an opportunity to educate your children on the power of saving, compounding returns and fiscal responsibility. 

Disclaimer: Everything discussed below is high-level and you should read up on each plan in detail and consult a financial expert with questions.

529 College Savings Plan

A 529 plan is a phenomenal tax strategy, because all of the gains over the life of the investment are not taxed. 

The Cost of a 4-year university degree can vary greatly, but let’s assume $50,000 per year or $200,000. 

I tell people to try to invest $500 per month per child from the day they are born. That is $6000 invested per year over 18 years. At a modest 6% growth rate that investment would grow to about $200,000. That works out to $108,000 of money invested that grows to $200,000, so $92,000 of appreciation (returns, gains, income, etc…) that the government will not tax. 

 

Visually the assumptions above look like this: 

  • $6000/ year for 18 years at 6% growth. 
  • $108,000 invested.
  • $92,000 return/income NOT TAXED. 


Not all kids are destined – nor should they be – for 4 year college. This money can also be used for many trade profession and education/certifications programs:

  • Electrician
  • Plumber
  • Carpenter
  • Dental Hygienist
  • Cosmetologist.  
  • The list goes on… 

Lots of good info here if you want to read up more on 529s. I’ve also written on some of my personal experiences in the past: 

Custodial ROTH IRA

A Roth IRA is a retirement account that you put after-tax money into, but when you draw on it in retirement the gains are not taxed. So similar characteristics of a 529, but for retirement.

If your child has earned income – and can be from babysitting, mowing lawns, etc, so not necessarily W2 income – then they or you as their parent can contribute up to their income or $7000 per year. 

Just as working adults should be contributing to a 401k or IRA, this is a vehicle to enable our children to start saving for retirement before they head off to be adults on their own.

It’s called a “Custodial” because the parent controls the account until it is legally transferred to the child between ages of 18-25.  

Let’s say you were able to contribute $5000 to their account from the age of 15 to 22 and average 8% annual returns. That investment would grow to ~$1m by the time they are 60 or $2.3m at age 70. Not bad! A parachute for your children.

Further this money is NOT TAXABLE because it’s in a Roth IRA. 

The above assumptions look like this: 

  • $5000/ year for 8 years at 8% return. 
  • $40,000 invested.
  • Over $1 million dollars to your child in NON TAXABLE income.

The chart above is a little crazy; had to check the math a couple of times. This is the power of compound interest!! 

Custodial Brokerage Account

A “custodial” brokerage account enables your children – or you on their behalf – to invest money in Money Market Funds, ETFs, stocks, bonds, etc…. It’s basically the same as your brokerage account, except that you control it, until it legally passes to your child at age 18-25 (like the Roth discussed above). 

So if your kids are earning money (or maybe you’re just gifting it to them), they/you can allocate some to the brokerage account and have a larger universe of investment options:

  • Money Markets (earning ~5% in 2024). 
  • Short term Certificates of Deposit.
  • US Government treasuries and bonds. 
  • Stocks, Mutual Funds, ETFs, etc… 

Why? Many kids are earning money and it’s sitting in their checking account earning nothing. A simple 5% money market account would earn your kids an extra $500 per year on $10,000.  

Finally, and very important, it’s a construct or mechanism to teach financial literacy to your kids. 

LONG STORY SHORT: Invest now for your kids.

Bonus: 

I was so blown away by the Roth returns, I was thinking what if your kid then gets a job and keeps maxing their contribution at the current $23,000/ year level through age 60 (which by the way is oversimplified and can be much higher with employer match, etc…).  

Here is Roth from parents and 401k from kids: 

  • Roth at $40,000 from parents.
  • 401k pre-tax at $23,000 per year until 60. 
  • $6-10 million for kids around age 60-65.

Note: You can’t even see the “Roth Investment” in pink in the chart above, because it is so small to the overall portfolio, but resulted in huge “Roth Earnings”.  

In closing

I just want to emphasize that the ideas and discussion above is quite simplified and does not contemplate all sorts of technical rules nor tax assumptions. The numbers could be much smaller or much higher by changing assumptions. 

The point is to highlight: You can create great wealth by simply starting early and being consistent. And it’s a great way to help your children attain financial literacy and independence! 

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