October 2025

#95 – Meta, Amazon, NFLX, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir, Apple

Markets

Meta, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir. Great companies. Here’s why!

 

Wealth Management Fees

Wealth Management fees. Paying XX Bank 1.5% a year to manage $5.5M. After 35 years is $6M in fees and ~$14M less than with Vanguard ETF.

AI

Talking to client, she asked for what I was reading information from… I was completely honest. I said I just typed it into AI. i]If you’re not using AI now you’re stupid. 

Gambling

Chauncey Billips arrested!! 

  1. The FBI says that NBA player Terry Rozier told the defendants that he was going to leave a game early on March 23, 2023, with an injury. The defendants then placed more than $200,000 of wagers on the unders for his prop bets, with Rozier leaving the game after nine minutes.  Those bets paid out tens of thousands of dollars in profits, and the defendants and Rozier counted the money at his house.

Markets

Fed Rate Cut

  • The latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate to between 3.75% and 4%
  • Education. Why Important:
  • Rate at which Fed Lends money to banks. 
  • Effects Money Market almost immediately. So kind of sucks. VMFXX’s 7-day yield 4.05% and SPAXX.
  • Juices economy. Less expensive to borrow, so can invest, build etc.. 

Apple

  • Slow to AI. But will figure it out. 
  • iPhone 17 awesome. 

Meta 

  • Earning Results
  • Revenue $50b. Record! 
  • UCAN 43% (Side note…S&P 500 is international).
  • CapEx $50b YTD vs $24b last year. Double!!!
  • Stock down 11%

Amazon

  • Up 10% plus in after-hours. 
  • $180b in the quarter
  • I’ll never sell: 
    • Package everyday. 
    • Andy Jasse 
    • Memo culture.

Tesla

Tesla Earnings. 

    • Record Revenue. $28b.
  • Energy up 44% !!!!
    • Revenue $3.4b and $2.3 cost. $1b in profit
    • US grid is only 50% productive. Can double with batteries. 
  • Other Services up 25%. 

Elon Remarks. Play at 11.00 Play thur 15.00

  • Leader in Realworld AI. Shockwave

Dan Ives: Overall for Tesla this was another step in the right direction as Robotaxis should be deployed in 8-10 cities by year end. Demand looks stable (China good) for Tesla and now the focus is autonomous and robotics.  We believe this is an AI driven story into 2026. $600 PT. 

No Drivers in Austin prior to year end. Taking a VERY conservative strategy!

Optimus: V3. 

Nvidia

Palantir

PLAY Jensen Huang on the importance of of Palantir and their ontology stack using Nvidia. This clip is from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) October 2025 event, where he highlighted Palantir’s Ontology platform as a key enterprise AI stack during announcements about new partnerships between NVIDIA and Palantir.

Alex and Jensen speaking together. 

  • Play art 1:50. Jensen talking about Palantir as largest growing enterprise platform. 

Autonomous Driving

As I’ve always said. We want numerous players in the space. Waymo, Zoox, Uber, etc… So they can all fight and influence Government regulation

NVIDIA Drive Software

NEWS: Nvidia today announced it is partnering with Uber to help build the “world’s largest Level 4 autonomous fleet, targeting 100,000 Robotaxis starting in 2027.”

“Nvidia will work with Uber to scale the world’s largest level 4-ready mobility network, using the company’s next-generation robotaxi and autonomous delivery fleets, the new Nvidia Drive AGX Hyperion 10 autonomous vehicle development platform and Nvidia Drive software purpose-built for L4 autonomy.

These vehicles will be developed in collaboration with Nvidia and other Uber ecosystem partners, using Nvidia Drive. Nvidia and Uber are also working together to develop a data factory accelerated by the Nvidia Cosmos world foundation model development platform to curate and process data needed for autonomous vehicle development.

Netflix

Earnings Letter

Earnings Call

10:1 stock split. 

Highlights:

    • Talked about personalized ad targeting. THIS IS HUGE!
    • KPop Demon Hunters, which is now our most popular film ever (325M views)
  • Top 10 movies here. 
  • Sharing view % growing (see charts)
  • Why Netflix?
    • Grown organically. WB and other mergers/acquisitions are a mess: Cultural and bureaucratic. Same core execs: Ted, Greg and David! 
    • Perfect mix of creative and Tech. No-one even close in tech. This helps ad money! 

Revenue and YoY % growth by Region:

  • UCAN: $5.1b 17%
  • EMEA: $3.7b 18%
  • LatAm: $1.4b 10%
  • APAC $1.4b 21%
  • ~43-45% of Revenue is US UCAn.

Interesting how they never pro-actively addressed the cancellation-call from Elon Musk. 

Be positive and be in a bubble if you need to be. 

#95 – Meta, Amazon, NFLX, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir, Apple Read More »

#94 – Crypto, Leverage, Commodities, Markets, Tesla

Open

Up Next

  • Palmer Lucky on Joe Rogan
  • Breaking 50 with Steph and Bryson

Security

  • US Bank Sharing:
    • Coinbase
    • Carta
    • Intuit. 

Markets

Yes there could be a crash. But remember economy is not same as Stock Market

Gold/Silver/Bitcoin

  • Debasement of Fiat?
  • Sign of mania!? 
  • Foreign governments buying. 

TSMC

Year-over-year, third quarter revenue increased 30.3% In US dollars, third quarter revenue was $33.10 billion, which increased 40.8% year-over-year. Gross margin for the quarter was 59.5%, operating margin was 50.6%, and net profit margin was 45.7%.

International ETF’s. VXUS. 

Nvidia

  • Jensen Huang 50 direct Reports. From 2023
  • Every employee should have AI agents. Multiplying productivity by 10 to 100 X.

Crypto

Bitcoin vs Fiat

At its core, Elon’s point boils down to Bitcoin’s fundamental design: it’s secured by proof-of-work (PoW), a consensus mechanism where miners worldwide compete to validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain. This isn’t just busywork—it’s computationally intensive, requiring massive amounts of real-world electricity to power specialized hardware (like ASICs). In essence, every Bitcoin transaction or block is “stamped” with proof of energy expenditure, making it extremely hard to fake or manipulate the network without burning even more energy.

Contrast that with traditional fiat currencies (like the USD or EUR), which governments can print endlessly, leading to inflation and devaluation over time—Elon calls this “fake” because it’s not backed by anything tangible beyond trust in the issuer. Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap (21 million coins) and energy-backed security make it more resistant to that kind of debasement. It’s like digital gold, but instead of mining from the earth, you’re mining with electricity, turning energy into scarcity and value.

Leverage in Crypto

Last Friday: Bitcoin dropped ~$121k – 110. So 10%.  

Crypto Bets

$19b wiped out. 

2 Accounts made $160m placing bets minutes before Trump News of China. 

Deposit $10,000. Lever by 10x to $100,000. Debt is $90,000

Crypto currency down 10%. $100,000 to $90,000

Account gone. 

Leverage Example: 

Regular brokerage account. 

 

Regular Leverage
Investment $1000 $1000
Loan/Borrow – $800
Investment $1000 $1800
Investment $500 $900 50% crash
Loan 0 $800 Force Liquidation to pay loan
Investment $500 $100
Loss $500 or 50% $900 or $90%

 

Leverage in Crypto Exchange

  • Coinbase 10X 
  • Binance 100x !!?? 30-50x. !!! WTF 
  • Example: 
    • $10,000. 
    • Lever to $500k. 
    • Market up 1% = $550. $50k profit. 
    • Market down 1%… you can’t even cover. YOU’RE LIQUIDATED.  

Reports: Specifically, around 1.6 million traders across major exchanges (including Binance) got wiped out on their leveraged positions, with over $19 billion in total liquidations in just hours

Tesla

Delaware Incorporation

From TeslaBoomerMom on the Court proceeding on Wed Oct 15. 

$345m in legal fees! 

With the help of some AI (ahem Grok) it seems about 27% or ~$2B of Delaware’s state revenue is derived from “incorporation” related fees. Another ~$2B  at least to the private sector (law firms, etc…) to support. So if companies lose faith in the predictability of the legal landscape and continue fleeing or going elsewhere to incorporate, it will have material financial ramifications to the state and its people. 

EV Adoption Globally

From the WSJ

China EV Sales

This is significant. 

$270,000 yuan is ~$38k. #1 seller is 40,000 Yuan or $6000.

General Motors

General Motors issues profit warning – $1.6 billion hit from EV overcapacity. @GM GM just filed a form 8-K informing that it “approved charges of $1.6 billion in GM North America in the three months ended September 30, 2025”. 

GM expects it will be unable to sell its EVs after policy changes. 

This $1.6 billion charge comes only 10 months after GM recognized $5 billion in charges in China. 

Tesla FSD

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1929 book

Andrew Ross Sorkin on All-in

 

#94 – Crypto, Leverage, Commodities, Markets, Tesla Read More »

Navigating Financial Assets in Divorce

Navigating Financial Assets in Divorce

  • Understand everything!

  • Get help if needed!

Divorce is messy, and when you’re untangling complex financial assets like brokerage accounts, RSUs, stock options and retirement plans it is imperative you have a comprehensive understanding of all details. A strong attorney and financial advisor can help tremendously. If you’re not 100% clear on the what and why of the financial divide, you might be getting railroaded. 

This post is in no way financial or legal advice, but simply aims to highlight complexities and nuances that can sway the balance of assets divided.

1 – Taxable Brokerage Accounts: Watch the Cost Basis

Dividing stocks in a taxable brokerage account seems straightforward: split the shares and move on. Under IRC 1041 transferring brokerage assets to a spouse and in divorce is tax free, but the nuance is understanding the “Cost Basis” of the shares being transferred. 

Why? Because, when you eventually sell that stock someday you’re going to pay tax on the gain, measured as the difference between the sale price and the cost basis. 

Imagine your husband has 1000 shares of Company DIV in his brokerage account currently trading at $200 (total value of $200,000). He gives you 500 shares as agreed in the divorce settlement with a fair value of $100,000. All good, right? 

What if those shares were acquired at different points in time? Maybe some were acquired for $50 and others for $150. What if he gave you the shares acquired for $50? When you sell those shares, you’ll owe tax on the sale price of $200 less the cost basis of $50, or $150/share. So your taxable gain is $150 * 500 shares = $75,000. You owe taxes on a gain of $75,000. 

On the other hand, he sells his 500 shares later for $200, but his cost basis is $150. So he’s only paying tax on a gain of $50/share. His taxable income is 500 shares * $50, or $25,000. 

In this case a higher tax liability was shifted to the wife!

Key Takeaway: You need to understand the Cost/Tax basis of financial assets. 

2 – Restricted Stock Units (RSUs)

RSUs—company stock granted as compensation—are common in tech and executive pay but tricky in divorce due to vesting schedules and tax rules.

Quick primer: Generally an employee is granted RSU’s annually as part of compensation and they vest over a period of time; for example 4 years. One could be granted 100 RSU’s of Company DIV on Jan 1, 2024 that vest 25% annually. So 25 RSU’s vest or become available every year for 4 years.

Understanding Vesting and Service Periods

The tricky part of splitting RSU’s in a divorce is determining how many RSU’s are/were Community Property (CP) prior to Date of Separation (DoS). 

For example, if DoS is Dec 31, 2024, prior to any RSU’s vesting, are any RSU’s included in CP? 

The short answer is likely “YES” as the husband was earning those options during the marriage. A vest period is also commonly referred to as a “service period”. So he was earning those RSU’s while he was serving in employment during the marriage. The wife here would/should argue that 364/365 of those RSU’s are CP.

This can get very complicated and confusing. What if all the options “cliff” vest after 4 years of service. What if they vest in non-conforming numbers: like 10% after 1 year, 20% two years, 30% three years and 40% at year 4?   

Key takeaway: the wife is generally entitled to some portion of RSU’s if they were granted prior to DoS! 

Cash vs. RSUs

Most company stock plans do not permit the transfer of “unvested” RSU’s. Therefore, you might carefully think thru, whether your settlement requires:

  1. The transfer of shares after they vest, or
  2. Negotiate a cash settlement now for those unvested shares. There are assumptions that go into this analysis that can materially affect the calculation; including Stock Price and Tax rates.

3 – Stock Options

Stock options give the employee the right to buy Company DIVR stock at a predetermined price; referred to as the exercise or strike price. The exercise price is the value of the underlying stock of Company DIVR on the grant date; so the options only have value if Company DIVR goes up in price. Stock options can be comple

x to understand, but here are a few key takeaways: 

  1. If the options are vested, you likely should negotiate taking ½. Many company stock plans will allow a change in ownership of non-qualified stock options.j

Why take the options and not cash? Again, very complex to explain, but a powerful aspect of “options” is inherent leverage. Long story short: If you think the stock will go up over time, you’re likely better off holding the options, than asking for cash. 

  1. Similar to RSU’s if there are unvested stock options on the table you should negotiate a cash payout or variable compensation arrangement when those options vest. 

If the husband works for a non-public company he could be receiving ISO stock options, which makes the analysis even more complex. 

Key Takeaway: Options can be very complex and very valuable; it is imperative that you understand the holdings and al

l the terms and make sure you’re getting your fair share.

4 – Spousal Support and Capturing Variable Income

Spousal support or “alimony” is often a component if divorce settlement. The wife and husband may ultimately agree to a fixed dollar amount to be paid to the wife for a set number of years. In our example here, the husband works in tech and it’s likely that RSU’s are a large % of his compensation (it’s not uncommon to be between 30% – 50%).

It is imperative that you consider the future value of RSU’s in spousal support. It seems obvious but sometimes the attorneys only look at fixed pay and a bonus assumption. But you need to look at future RSU’s as they can be extremely valuable.  

Key takeaway: If negotiating spousal support based on current or future earnings you MUST understand how RSU’s fit in the picture.  

5. Retirement Accounts

Retirement accounts may include past and current 401(k) plans, IRA’s and Roth IRAs. These accounts are very common and fairly straight-forward, so there isn’t as much complexity. The obvious is ensuring you have a comprehensive understanding of all the accounts in existence and ensuring paper-work (QDRO’s for example) is filed accurately and timely.

How might someone casually hide or not disclose? 

  • Simply not disclose the accounts. 
  • Liquidate old 401(k) to cash – paying the tax and penalty – just to eliminate their existence. 
  • Roll some balance of known IRA’s into newly created accounts at a different brokerage; and of course not disclose. 

Key takeaway: Understand the full universe of accounts and review transaction history! 

6. Other Financial Assets

Don’t overlook:

  • Employee Stock Purchase Plans (ESPPs): Discounted stock buys are divisible but need tracing around DoS.
  • Crypto Accounts: Volatile, with basis issues like stocks; hidden wallets are common.
  • Margin Loans: Debt against brokerages reduces divisible value—check statements.
  • Deferred Compensation: Unvested plans need expert valuation.
  • Pensions: Less common now but valuable; require QDROs and actuarial analysis.
  • Life Insurance and annuities: Very complex and lot’s of potential value. 

Key Takeaway: Understand EVERYTHING!

Final Takeaway

Divorce demands vigilance with financial assets. Tax basis, vesting schedules, and variable income can shift outcomes materially. Work with a divorce attorney, financial advisor, and potentially forensic accountant to uncover assets, value them accurately, and negotiate from a position of strength in understanding. Don’t let complexity cost you; it can be overwhelming so if the numbers are big, get help. 

Understand everything! Be nice and be confident. 

For illustrative purposes, and in order to keep the examples flowing and easier to understand, we’ll: 

  1. Use Company DIVR that has a current stock price of $200. 
  2. Let’s assume the husband works in tech and is highly compensated.

Navigating Financial Assets in Divorce Read More »

#93 – Markets, Investing, Netflix, Tesla, Nvidia, XaI

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Katie Porter: Governor of CA. Can we just get some smart rational leaders?! 

Music: 

  • Every major has a corresponding minor. 
  • Major: WWHWWWH 
  • C: CDEFGAB
  • Minor: 123456 = Am

Markets

All time highs!  

  • Market up 4x in 10 years. 

$100,000 10 yrs ago: 

VOO = $400,000

VGT = $800,000

Apple = $1m 

NFLX = $1.1m

TSLA = $2.8m 

NVIDIA = $30m

100,000 = $400,000 now

 

My NFLX was $10k, now ~$900k.

 

Symbol Total Returns (Daily)
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year
AAPL 16% 86% 129% 382% 930%
AMZN 23% 94% 39% 135% 718%
GOOG 51% 150% 241% 330% 675%
META 22% 438% 178% 356% 676%
MSFT 29% 129% 160% 401% 1185%
NFLX 70% 430% 123% 239% 1002%
NVDA 45% 1434% 1229% 2668% 29157%
QQQ 26% 129% 123% 252% 517%
TSLA 80% 94% 205% 2380% 2701%
VGT 31% 146% 147% 306% 696%
VOO 19% 93% 111% 160% 300%

 

Investment over time: 

At age 25 max your 401k at $23,500 and save an extra $1,000/month. Increase by $1000/mo annually until age 50.

You should have over $10m by age 50. (below shows $13.5m with 10% returns.

Netflix

WokeFlix. 

  • Everyone will hate something!!

Greg Peters – Co CEO:

  • “Go with God and try to monetize the heck outta that.”Good philosophy for LIFE! 
  • Still really the only PURE streaming play

Tesla

Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla Compensation Plan

  • Structure: 12 tranches; each tranche vested only upon achieving both a market cap milestone and an operational goal.
  • Milestones: 12 market cap targets starting at $100B and increasing by $50B each up to $650B
  • Done in 2023. 

Stock was basically $20 and 10X!!!   20x now.

Elon Musk’s 2025 Proposed Tesla Compensation Plan

  • Structure: Similar to 2018 with 12 tranches of restricted stock. 
  • Milestones: 12 market cap targets from $2T to $8.5T

FSD v14. Watch the vides. Parking in Garages, fast-food drive-thru’s, pulling over for ambulance, etc… 

 

Tesla is the world leader in:

(1) Real-world AI (2) Robotics and (3) Manufacturing advanced integrated hardware and software at scale. This 3rd point is under-appreciated, but is key to profitability.

XAI

XAI/Grok, Gemini/Google, OpenAI/ChatGPT, 

Jensen Huang:

Play video here

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