Holidays! . Cats and Dogs and Family. Happy Holidays. New Cat named Timmy. Pure trouble and pure JOY! 

Coinbase Fraud. Called with automated message asking if I attempted to change my “email contact”. If “no” they said press #1 or otherwise hangup. So I press 1. Some dude is on the line. Says he needs my first and last name to help. I ask him, “how do I even know if you’re real…How do I know you’re Coinbase?”. He hangs up!!! OMG! 

Startup Investing

• Thoughts on Investing: 

• Rule #1: Be comfortable losing all the money. Might sting, but should not cause you to lose sleep!
• Should be in the form of a convertible note to preferred stock that is accruing interest; as opposed to pure equity. 
• Follow the smart money.
• Follow a “lead investor” involved that is going to help drive due diligence; like quarterly updates, financial statements, board meetings. 
• How much does the Founder/CEO have on the line? This can highly correlate to success. Is he working 100 hour weeks?
• Understand your exit hurdle against risk. Example: $20m valuation. $200m exit = 10x return.

Markets

Investments for our kids! 

Play here. Brad Gerstner and Michael Dell at White House. Dell committed $6.5B to $250 in to 25m accounts. = $6.25B

• He’s getting murdered on Social Media for it being a “tax write-off”. You CAN NOT WIN. 

AI

Bubble? 

• Open AI and some other startups? Maybe. 
• Not Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Google. 

Fed Regulation of AI. To prevent a 50 state patchwork, onerous system. 

Bernie Sanders and other Dems calling for a “halt” on AI and Datacenters!!!???

Markets S&P 500

• S&P only 1-2% off ATH. Tech ~5%.
• Up 16% on year. Tech 20%
• Big Stocks significantly off high, implying the rest of S&P 500 rising

Apple

Apple head of AI retiring. 

Apple could partner with Gemini. Also, tech is getting so good that Apple will offer privacy! 

Netflix

Netflix back in pole-position. I think this is “Good”

Stock Price hammered! Down 30%. 400b mkt cap. Was $570. Call it $500. $75b deal is only 15% of Mkt cap for: 

• Turnkey studio and ICONIC space. 
• IP. Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones, Matrix, Sopranos, Succession, Lord of the Rings. Barbie
• HBO! 

Tesla

Stock Price

Vs Waymo. 

Delaware court compensation case overturned

• Restored 2018 plan. 
• New Plan. 

Tesla AI Chips

Tesla AI Chip and Advanced Engineering from Elon. 

Most people don’t know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years.

That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI. The current version in cars is AI4, we are close to taping out AI5 and are starting work on AI6. Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months. We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined. Read that sentence again, as I’m not kidding.

These chips will profoundly change the world in positive ways, saving millions of lives due to safer driving and providing advanced medical care to all people via Optimus. 

Send an email with three bullet points describing evidence of your exceptional ability to AI_Chips@Tesla.com. 

Tesla licensing FSD

Elon tweeing/xing tried and trying to help legacy automakers, but they want a pilot program that starts in like 5 years!

Analyst Rating on Tesla

Analysts and maybe the public waking up to Autonomous Driving!?!! 

Tesla is must own perMelius Research analyst Rob Wertheimer: “Tesla’s autonomous-driving lead is approaching an irreversible tipping point that could trigger one of the biggest value shifts in modern industrial history. Tesla is a must own because the world is about to change, dramatically.”

“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.” He adds that the next five years “will see hundreds of billions in value shift… to Tesla.” Public awareness remains low. “Not even 1 out of 100 Americans have ridden in a self-driving car,” Wertheimer stated, adding that only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest FSD (Supervised) system. When widespread rollout arrives, “it will still shock most people.”

Optimus

This video of Optimus jogging is insane. Should double the market cap! 

Inverse Funds

TSLZ

People actually buy this stuff? 

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the inverse (or opposite) of the daily performance of TSLA. The Fund does not seek to achieve its stated investment objective for a period of time different than a trading day.

SpaceX

When Starship is launching several times a day in a few years, SpaceX will be ~99% of all Earth payload mass to orbit, even if the others triple their current launch rate. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1994518037614268565?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g

Drugs

Drug Trade

• On a lighter note these guys have fast boats. They run drug cargoes worth as much as $70 million on the sleek 40-foot-long boats, often built from fiberglass and powered by oversize outboards. These boats are the workhorses for the traffickers along 2,000 miles of Colombian coastline—and hundreds more miles in Ecuador and Venezuela.
• Interesting…the “Gaurantor”.… The crews are usually made up of three or four men: a pilot, the most experienced and best paid; a mechanic who troubleshoots and keeps the boat’s fuel tanks full; a guarantor trusted by the buyer and seller; and sometimes a navigator to chart the way.
• 2-3 Tons!!???    Even with the new threats, the incentives remain huge. The pilot said a clean run of two or three tons can mean $100,000 for a day’s work. With that kind of money at stake, he said it wouldn’t be hard to find willing men to keep running the boats, even with the threat of military strikes. 
  • 1 “metric” ton = 1000 kilos. 
    • 2200 pounds. Chevy!! Used to measure in tons. Per my Dad!!
  • 1 kilo = 1000 grams.
  • So 1 ton is 1,000,000 grams. Street value $50 -100 per gram
  • So $50 – 100m dollars. 
• Twelve hours later, the craft idled—ever so briefly—until what counterdrug officials call a “narco sub” appeared and stopped alongside. The boat’s three crewmen then transferred a half ton of cocaine—worth $12 million on the street—onto the semisubmersible. Skimming along the waterline, the new craft and crew headed north to Mexico, the next link before reaching America’s cocaine market.
  • ½ ton = 500 kilos = 500,000 grams. = 500,000 * 100 = $5,000,000

“I think it’s a serious situation,” said a drug-boat crew member who has ferried cocaine north along Colombia’s Caribbean coast. “What really worries me is them bombing us, you know? We’ve got families, kids—all of that.”

Politics

David Sacks: 

NY Times hit piece.

• Sacks personally benefitting. 
• No blind Trust because kids are minors. 
• Sound like investigation, but all publicly availabe that he has 708 tech investments. 

Why Important. Because WE NEED business people in Government. 

  https://open.spotify.com/episode/65oG0YARECbXnFCbv2PTZp

David Sacks is a highly successful business person that is serving our government well and we should all be thankful.

From Chamath on the Topic. 

Tim Waltz Fraud. 

• String on X and 
• And another one. 
• $9 billion—may have been fraudulent. 92 people charged.  
• This includes funds meant for vulnerable populations, such as low-income families, people with disabilities, and those needing housing or autism support.

How the Scams Worked: Fraudsters exploited lax oversight by enrolling as providers, then billing for services that were never delivered. Examples include:

• Housing Stabilization Services (HSS): Out-of-state individuals (dubbed “fraud tourists”) signed up remotely, submitted fake claims, and pocketed millions—e.g., two Philadelphia men allegedly defrauded $3.5 million without providing any services.
• Integrated Community Supports (ICS): Providers rented apartments to Medicaid recipients and billed $100,000–$200,000 per client annually for nonexistent support, with one company (Ultimate Home Health Services) billing $1.1 million in just over a year for fake services.

California Budget Crisis – Wealth Tax

Unable to stem the exodus, California is again toying with retroactive taxes — targeting the wealthy regardless of whether they flee the state. Welcome to Hotel California, “you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”…https://t.co/FvJsTyrlh7 https://x.com/jonathanturley/status/1995823767226904895?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g

Trying to get on 2026 ballot. 

How do you tax NON LIQUID investments? 

200 billionaires are on Zillow right now! 

Recommendations

• Molly’s Game (interview on All-In). 
• Movie: The Spy Who Dumped Me. 
• Bill Gurley on ferris
• Sean RYan Show with Tobi Ludke and Jocko
• Ethan Hawke on Rogan.