April 2025

#89 – Golf, Markets, Netflix, Tesla, Govt, College & 529s

Opening

  • Back and appreciation for life and feeling good.
  • Punta Mita. Stayed at W.  Four Seasons and St. Regis.
    • Golfed at Pacifico. Famous “Tail of whale”.  Hit it in water. 
  • Masters: Rory completed a career grand slam.
  • Men’s Golf Career Grand Slam Winners

Based on the latest information, six men have completed the career Grand Slam in professional golf:

  1. Gene Sarazen: Achieved in 1935 (Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, PGA Championship).
  2. Ben Hogan: Achieved in 1953 (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, Masters, Open Championship).
  3. Gary Player: Achieved in 1965 (Open Championship, Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open).
  4. Jack Nicklaus: Achieved in 1966 (U.S. Open, Masters, PGA Championship, Open Championship). Nicklaus completed the slam three times, winning each major at least three times.
  5. Tiger Woods: Achieved in 2000 (Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, Open Championship). Like Nicklaus, Woods completed the slam three times.
  6. Rory McIlroy: Achieved in 2025 (U.S. Open 2011, PGA Championship 2012 and 2014, Open Championship 2014, Masters 2025). His recent Masters victory made him the sixth and the first since Woods in 2000.

Phil still missing US open!!

Markets

People are freaking, but is it that bad? 

We are in “Correction” territory. Down 10%. Every 2 years. 

  • Bear Market is down 20%. 
    • Remember. ~25 times in last 100 years. So once every 4 years. 
    • Last “Bear” market was in 2022 and April 8 intraday. 

Netflix

  • Earnings on Thursday.
  • Was at a $1058. After market $1006
    • 3 years ago in June was $170!!!  
    • Almost a 6x return!!!
    • Now people/friends/clients saying they’re sorry they sold at low of ~$800. WHAT 
      • KEEP things in perspective people. 
  • Play: Video from Rich Greenfield: 

Not reporting “subs” anymore. Focus on Revenue and profitability. 

  • Revenue up 12.5% YoY. I like at least 10%.  
  • No slow down in site.  

Play Greg at 11:45.

  • Greg says will double Ad-tier revenue in 2025 (big statement). 
  • Tech Stack!!
  • AI in-house capability. 
  • Price targets:
    • Wedbush $1150 price target. 
    • JP Morgan lowered to $1025 from $1150. 
    • Morgan Stanley $1150 target. 
      • “We expect Netflix to demonstrate relative resilience in a weaker global macro.” 
      • “Membership base averages nearly two hours of viewing a day per member”. 
  • Key Takeaways:
  1. Leader and only profitable company in streaming. 
  2. Recession relient/proof. Not going to cancel Netflix in recession…might stop going to Starbucks though. 
  3. Advertising nowhere to go but UP UP UP. Only true “tech” company focused.
    1. With exception of Amazon

Tesla

  • Earnings release April 22. 
  • $776b market cap. $240 stock price. Was $428. 
    • 80% increase if/when back to high!!!  
    • Even if two years from now its like 40% returns. 
    • I may have to YOLO all into this! 
  • Biggest news coming is Cybercab in June in Austin…just wait. 

Tesla’s Market Leadership:

  • Tesla sold approximately 128,100 EVs in the U.S. during Q1 2025, outperforming the combined sales of the next 10 EV brands. This underscores Tesla’s continued dominance, holding a 43.5% market share despite a year-over-year sales drop.
  • The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 were the top-selling EVs, with 64,051 and 52,520 units sold, respectively. The Model 3 saw a significant 70% sales increase from Q1 2024, while the Model Y experienced a slight decline.

California Performance:

  • In California, the largest U.S. EV market, Tesla registered 42,322 vehicles in Q1 2025, far ahead of Ford’s 5,819 (second place). However, Tesla’s registrations fell 15.1% year-over-year, reflecting a broader sales slump in the state. The Model Y and Model 3 remained the top EV models.
    • The Model Y and Model 3 easily topped EV charts, though registrations slipped 15.1% from last year due to factory line upgrades temporarily pausing production.
  • Joe Rogan now tweeting about Tesla: I had my Tesla model S drive me home the other day with FSD, and it’s fucking wild. Changes lanes to avoid slow traffic, stops at red lights and stop signs, hits the blinkers and turns for you. It’s bananas.
  • My FSD works great!!! Slows down now on hill going up to golf club. 

Nvidia

  • Blog on $500b investment and building in Arizona. 
    • NVIDIA Blackwell chips have started production at TSMC’s chip plants in Phoenix, Arizona. NVIDIA is building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas, with Foxconn in Houston and with Wistron in Dallas. Mass production at both plants is expected to ramp up in the next 12-15 months.
    • Within the next four years, NVIDIA plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the United States through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL. These world-leading companies are deepening their partnership with NVIDIA, growing their businesses while expanding their global footprint and hardening supply chain resilience.

Walmart & Amazon – Drone Delivery

Walmart is offering drone delivery in select U.S. markets. The service, which began testing in 2021, has expanded significantly, particularly in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area, where it now covers up to 75% of the population across more than 30 towns and municipalities.

  • How It Works: Customers order eligible items (up to 10 pounds, like groceries, snacks, or household goods) via the Walmart app or partner sites (e.g., Wing or Zipline). Drones deliver in 30 minutes or less, sometimes as fast as 10 minutes, using a cable to lower packages to yards or driveways.
  • Partners: Walmart works with Wing (Alphabet-owned) and Zipline, both FAA-approved for Beyond Visual Line of Sight flights, enabling broader reach. 
  • Scale and Impact: Walmart has completed over 20,000 drone deliveries in the past two years.
  • $30/package in some cases.

Amazon is offering drone delivery through its Prime Air program.

  • Where It’s Available:
    • College Station, Texas: Active since 2022, with thousands of deliveries completed.
  • How It Works:
    • Eligible customers can choose drone delivery at checkout for items weighing up to 5 pounds.
    • Drones deliver in under an hour, often 30–60 minutes, using the MK30 drone, which is quieter, faster, and can handle light rain. Packages are dropped via a cable to a designated spot in your yard.
  • Scale and Limitations:
    • Amazon has completed thousands of deliveries, with over 50,000 eligible items in Tolleson. 
    • You need a single-family home with a clear delivery area (no tall grass, obstacles, or pets). Apartments and condos are generally excluded.

Universities

Lots in the news. I have strong opinions. 

  • Harvard and Columbia.  Endowments of $52b and $14b.  
  • Grants from Government: Harvard $700m. Colombia $1.2b.  
  • Tuition. Both all in ~$90k / year. 
    • Across US, up about 7% per year. 
  • Bloat: staff ratios shifting (e.g., Harvard’s administrators from 707 to 1,352 per 1,000 students)
    • So 1.4 admin per student!!?? 
  • Endowments NOT taxed. Insane.

My Expert opinion:

  • Donations should be tax free or deductible. 
  • Endowments themselves over certain amount should TOTALLY be taxable. Maybe at different rates, but still taxable. 
  • Schools with certain endowment levels should NOT receive federal grants! 
  • Federal loans should be (1) need based and (2) tied to academic pursuit and probability of payback.

Government 

Government Transparency

  • I think agree/disagree with Govt policy, the communication and transparency is better than I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.

Trump’s Cabinet Meeting on April 10, 2025:

  • During his third cabinet meeting of 2025, held on April 10, Trump answered approximately 20 questions from the press, as part of a broader pattern of openness in his first three meetings. Across these meetings (February 26, March, and April 10), Trump fielded nearly 100 questions total—55 in the first, 15 in the second, and 20 in the third.

Comparison to Biden’s Administration:

  • The Washington Times claimed that Trump’s nearly 100 questions answered in three 2025 cabinet meetings is nearly 20 times the number answered by Biden during cabinet meetings over his entire four-year term (2021–2025). Specifically, Biden is said to have answered only 5 questions across nine cabinet meetings.

DOGE

  • Larry Summers and Ezra Klein went HARD against DOGE on last All-in Podcast…was good hearing other opinions/perspectives, but also weird… didn’t seem founded and didn’t site solid examples of wrong doing. 
  • The Department of Labor just revealed some SHOCKING numbers on fraud at the agency: “25,000 people who are over 115 years old and have been collecting $59M in payments.” “28,000 people between one and five years old have collected fraudulent payments to the 
    • Unemployment insurance. An initial survey of Unemployment Insurance claims since 2020 revealed the following:
      • 24.5k people over 115 years old claimed $59M in benefits
      • 28k people between 1 and 5 years old claimed $254M in benefits
      • 9.7k people with birth dates over 15 years in the future claimed 

Recommendations

  • Brecka on Joe Rogan: 
    • I ordered Hydrogen Water. Looking at Hydrogen machine or “bombs” for bath. 
    • Ordered a Ruck pack. 
    • Going to start more kettle balls, hanging and carrying weight. 
    • Log cabins, and living in the woods and farms. 
    • Hyperbaric chamber.

#89 – Golf, Markets, Netflix, Tesla, Govt, College & 529s Read More »

#88 – Markets, Tariffs, Panic, Tesla, Robots, Xai

Opening

Markets

Full Correction Territory (down 10%); quickly moving to “Bear” down 15%. 

  • S&P 17%, Tech 25%+
  • Basically flat to 1 year ago. 
  • Apple in huge correction. PE still at 30
  • Netflix at 43.

Search for “S&P 500 P/E Ratio.” It provides quarterly historical data from 1988 to 2024 (and into 2025 with updates). You can customize the chart for 2005–2025. It’s precise, showing averages like 21.69 over the last 5 years, with a current value near 24.85 as of early April 2025.

Tariffs

  • Income Taxes. No income tax in the US income tax until 1913. Then WW2 started income tax to fund the war. The modern, permanent federal income tax began with the 16th Amendment, ratified on February 3, 1913.
  • Tariff rates: The U.S. charged less than most big players—think 2-5% versus 5-15% from others—especially in trade deals. 
  • Trade Deficit: in 2024 was $918.4 billion, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Total US spending deficit: $1.8 trillion in 2024 per FRED. Spend $6t and take in $4t. 
  • Total US Debt. $36 trillion. Total Debt nowAs of today, April 4, 2025, the total U.S. national debt is approximately $36.6 trillion, based on the latest available data from the U.S. Treasury’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset, which is updated daily.
  • Interest expense is $1t growing to $1.3. Estimated. 
    • So assuming we can even cut spending to $4t. Then interest is 25% of our spend. 
  • Roughly $10 trillion of U.S. debt is expected to mature and require refinancing within the next 12 months.

Markets crashing pushing people into Bonds: 

  • I want safety!! Buy a Bond costs $100 and pays 5%. Bidders drive that Bond to 110, still paying $5. So effective interest rate is 4.5%.
  • The tariffs are pegged to amounts it said other countries impose on the U.S. In many cases, those amounts appear to match a basic formula: the size of a country’s goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., divided by how much America imports from that nation. 
    • So imbalance is 100. US exports 10, x country exports 90.  90/100 = 90%. 

Play Ray Dalio on the significance and problem of debt.

Play: Antonio Gracias on SS and Medicaid Fraud. 

NOTE: I think this is all a negotiating tactic!!! 

Financial Education

  • Officially funding kids Roth and Brokerage accounts. 
    • Take advantage of gift tax exclusion. $19,000 per child per year. Not subject to lifetime inheritance limit. Lifetime Exemption: Beyond the annual exclusion, there’s a lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, which in 2025 is $13.99 million per person (or $27.98 million for a married couple). Gifts exceeding the $19,000 annual limit per recipient reduce this lifetime exemption, but you only pay gift tax if you exceed the lifetime amount. The annual exclusion gifts don’t touch this lifetime cap, which is what you’re referring to when you mention the “lifetime inheritance max.”

Netflix

  • Adolescence
  • Cruising thru…there are so many good shows and movies!!! 
  • Crockett reiterated his buy rating on Netflix stock with a price target of 1,494.
  • Elsewhere on Wall Street, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney said his firm’s latest
    • Mahaney rates Netflix stock as outperform with a price target of 1,100.

SpaceX

Interestingly Amazon’s project Kuiper launching a competitor internet service using Boeing Starliner. DO I have this correct.  Great to see Amazon finally kicking off with Project Kuiper! Atlas 5 is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin

    • However, there’s a catch: if launches continue with ULA’s Atlas V, costs could spiral out of control. An Atlas V launch costs around $100-150 million, and with 3,200 satellites to deploy, that could add up to over $10 billion just for launches, even with conservative estimates. Reusable rockets are an absolute must these days—SpaceX’s Falcon 9, for example, brings costs down to about $30-50 million per launch thanks to its reusability. So, we can only hope Blue Origin makes quick progress with the reusable New Glenn, which could significantly cut costs. The cost comparison really shows how crucial efficient launch systems are for making mega-projects like this possible.

X & Xai

Elon announcement here

CNBC interview with Rich Greenfield. . 

WSJ Article here. 

That deal consists of a $33 billion price tag for X, alongside a $80 billion valuation for xAI. The new $80 billion valuation figure for xAI is a big jump from just four months ago, when the company was valued at $50 billion in its last fundraising. The new level was set as part of the merger talks, not in a new funding round.

Robotics

Tesla

  • Tesla worst delivery numbers in years. 
    • Norway registered more cars in March that ever.
    • China too. 
      • This is importantly interesting because that is the land of the best EV’s. Biggest and best competition. 
    • Keep in mind Tesla spent ~month upgrading lines in Shangai, Austin and Germany to revamp new Model Y production: best selling car in world in 2024 and 2023.
  • Made in the USA
  • Some of the uptick coming from Elon and Trump announcing Elon will step back soon. Mission accomplished and the right people in place. 
  • Keying of Tesla cars has become ridiculous! People are ruining their lives and demonstrating extreme lack of rationale.  
  • Elon just said they know who the “organizers” are and will go prison. Anchor mentioned RICO charges. 
  • RICO charges refer to violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, a U.S. federal law enacted in 1970 under Title 18, Section 1961 of the United States Code. Designed to combat organized crime, RICO allows prosecutors to target individuals or groups involved in a pattern of illegal activity, even if the specific acts differ, by linking them to an ongoing criminal enterprise.

Key Elements of RICO Charges

  1. Enterprise: A group (formal or informal) with a common purpose—e.g., a gang, corporation, or even a loose association. It doesn’t need to be a legal entity.
  2. Pattern of Racketeering Activity: At least two acts of “racketeering” (called predicate acts) within 10 years, showing ongoing criminal behavior. These acts must be related and pose a threat of continued crime.
  3. Predicate Acts: A long list of specific crimes under RICO, including:
    • Violent crimes: Murder, kidnapping, arson, extortion.

Government inefficiency

  1. Fix Regulation and be more efficient. Unleash power of business, building, entrepreneurship. 
    1. Play at 3:30.Here is video of Ezra Klein discussing with Jon Stewart why $44b of broadband connected zero homes in 4 years. 
      1. Bridge not built yet. 
      2. No train in CA. 
  2. Cut waste and fraud. 

Social Security:

Doge

Goal is to reduce spending by $1b or 15%.  

Entire Doge Interview with Brett Baier.  Survey at 1:10. $1b. $830m online survey.  

  • NIH computers.  Play at 14:00. 1700 different IT systems. 17 CIO’s. Non-technical. 

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