Author name: Dylan

#92 – Markets, Govt, Coinbase, Robots, NFLX, Tesla, Apple, Google

Opening

Golf

PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

  • 156 players. Top 70 make cut.

Qualification Criteria

California Budget

  1. California: 13.3%
  2. Hawaii: 11.0%
  3. New York: 10.9%
  4. New Jersey: 10.75%
  5. Oregon: 9.9%

Investing

  • $1000 to every kid.

Home Alarm: $45/ month

Markets

Tariffs

Tariff Game Theory: China has to blink because everyday that passes every company is studying and implementing supply chain changes.

So much panic in last month or so.

  • Now Flat year to date
  • If investing on April 7.   You are up 17% and 29%
  • Downturns is when you make money!!!

Netflix

  • All time high: $1182. Up 29% YTD.
  • $500 billion market cap.
  • Netflix said on Wednesday 94 million subscribers use its advertising-supported tier.

Buffet

  • Becoming old. 94 years old. Legend.
  • I’m still pissed he didn’t buy Tesla.

Coinbase

  • Ransom
  • Turning it around. Will pay $20m reward to help find attackers!!!

Tesla

Apple

  • ATH $258. Now at $211. Was $172
  • WHat is a buy-back?

More of Eddy Cue testimony here.

Alphabet/ Google

  • Search is dead.
  • Cloud, Youtube, Google  Biz suite alive and well.

DOGE

Big Balls

These kids are so hard core. No weekends. They know they’re racing against a media and political clock that won’t thank them for their service.

Requiring receipts: “They were basically partying on taxpayer money.

Recommendations:

#92 – Markets, Govt, Coinbase, Robots, NFLX, Tesla, Apple, Google Read More »

#91 – Meta, Zuck, Markets, Tesla, Anduril, Govt, Golf

Google

Earnings on April 24, 2025

Microsoft

  • Revenue up 13% and Operating income up 16%.

Meta

  • Revenue up 16% YoY and operating income up 27%!
  • 3.4 billion unique users they estimate.
  • Investment thesis:
    • Instagram and Reels. WhatsApp
    • AI
    • Physical glasses

Play at 2:05. Morning routine. Dropping F-bomb! Socially awkward. “I’m really smooth!”  Does wonders for confidence!!   🤣  Smooth talker. Self-effacing.

Earnings release.

Netflix

  • All time highs. $1100+
  • Recession proof.

Tesla

shared a comment from its Board Chair.

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company. This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published)

Autonomous

FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees

Trump Admin to ease restrictions

Tesla has secured a 2 year exemption to run FSD on public roads in Norway

Tesla and NHTSA crash Data

Tesla Semi progress. Tesla has announced that they will be building 46 Semi truck megawatt level charging sites in the next couple years. They will all be built by early 2027.

Waymo has announced they are now providing over 250,000 paid Robotaxi trips per week, up from 200,000 per week two months ago.

Slate Car company

Anduril & Palantir

I like these leaders (Palmer and Alex Karp).

Economy/Govt

Warren Buffet on importance of reducing trade deficit.

Tariffs
Great post from Ackman. Kind of game theory on why China has incentive to settle.

DOGE

$250 MILLION for “Transparency for the Uzbekistan Cotton Industry

Recommendations:

  • Palmer Lucky.
  • Theo Von and Zuck.

#91 – Meta, Zuck, Markets, Tesla, Anduril, Govt, Golf Read More »

#90 – Tesla Earnings and Future – Not Investment Advice!

Markets

Markets are volatile, but its very important to keep things in perspective.

  • S&P 500 16% off all time high.
  • 5 and 10 year annualized returns of 15% and 11%.
  • CAPE Ratio still high at 33.

Tesla

“The reality is, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars.”  

Letter and Financials

FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco

  • Model Y best selling car on Earth. 2 years in row. Transition lines in all factories (Fremont, Austin, Shanghai, Berlin) in ~6-8 weeks
  • World leader in real-world AI. Unsupervised self-driving will dominate the US.
  • Leader in manufacturing. No other EV biz in US makes money and even ICE divisions will struggle with tariffs
  • Tesla stressed their focus on localizing supply chain
  • They will “turn-on” Austin, then other cities push-button
  • Millions of cars driving autonomously mid to late next year
  • Optimus
  • China: Optimus Humanoid Robot will be #1 with China in spots 2-10

Investor Call here on YouTube

  • Will spend less time at DOGE
  • Play 12:12: future of company is based on large scale autonomous cars and robots. At scale at low cost. Value is staggering. Believes Tesla will be most valuable company in world by far. More than next 5 combined. (so $15 trillion?).
  • Play at 20:20. 1000’s of Optimus robots working if factories by end of this year. Will scale faster than any product in history. Million units/yr in 4-5 years. 2030 1 million per year (maybe 2029).
  • Play at 35:40 . Model Y’s on track for paid rides in Austin in June. Many other cities by end of year. S-curve. Robotaxi’s operating at scale in millions by 2H 2026.
  • Play at 40:16. Many days without knowing if improvement is happening. 10,000 miles/ intervention. Teslas driving everywhere in Austin. Average person drives 10,000 miles/ year.
  • Play at 47:18.  “Waymo money”. Tesla costs 20% less. Doesn’t see anyone competing with Tesla at present. Tesla will have 99% or 90% something market share! Millions of cars deployed. Risk: Regulatory risk. In a few years will have 10m cars on road.
  • Play at 1:01.30. We make also make our own cells! Tesla is the most competitive battery.
  • Play at 1:11.58. Why are people still buying other car, like BMW’s. This is an Iphone moment.
  • Elon: “Reality is most people won’t buy cars in future”.  Flip phone analogy. Not perfect, but not bad.
  • Elon: “Buying a gasoline car is like riding a horse. People still do it, but rare.”
  • Play at 1:30.25. Who is ahead in Drones and AI? Vassal state. 100% of drones have a reliance on China. “China is amazing!”. Humanoid robots. No company in world that can match Tesla. Concerned that #’s 2-10 are Chinese companies.

Conclusion:
Buy the future

#90 – Tesla Earnings and Future – Not Investment Advice! Read More »

#76 – Thx Giving, DOGE, Markets, Tesla

As the holiday season kicks into full gear, many of us find ourselves reflecting on family, technology, and the state of the world. This past Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, offered a unique opportunity to pause and consider these themes. Here’s a recap of some thoughts and happenings from that day.

A Thanksgiving to Remember

Spending quality time with family is something we often take for granted. This Thanksgiving, I had the pleasure of sharing a meal with my two teenage daughters. Amidst their busy lives and evolving interests, it was a rare and cherished moment to sit down together and engage in meaningful conversation. The experience reminded me of the importance of making time for family, not just during the holidays but throughout the year.

Cooking the Thanksgiving feast was an adventure in itself. Four hours in the kitchen taught me a newfound appreciation for those who cook regularly. The process was both exhausting and rewarding, inspiring a commitment to spend more time honing my culinary skills. However, a word of caution: expressing too many opinions about kitchen organization might not always be well-received by your significant other!

Our holiday traditions continued with the purchase of a Christmas tree. While the cost was higher than anticipated—over $200—the joy and ambiance it brings to our home make it a worthwhile investment. The fresh scent of pine filling the house is a simple pleasure that enhances the festive spirit.

Navigating Public Reactions: The Blue Origin Video

In the realm of technology and space exploration, Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s aerospace company, recently faced a social media stir. A video featuring science communicator Emily Calandrelli expressing awe during a space mission was met with unkind remarks online. The incident highlights the challenges public figures face in the digital age.

It also serves as a reminder of the importance of resilience. Embracing who we are and responding to criticism with confidence can often defuse negativity. Owning our reactions and being unapologetically ourselves not only empowers us but also diminishes the impact of detractors.

A Message from Leadership and Political Reflections

Vice President Kamala Harris shared a message encouraging people not to let others take away their power or purpose. While the intent was uplifting, the delivery sparked mixed reactions. It underscores the broader conversation about political communication and the desire for strong, centrist leadership that resonates with a wide audience.

As we look ahead, there’s hope that political parties can learn from past experiences and work towards unity and effective governance.

Golfing Feats and Entertainment

On a lighter note, golf enthusiasts were captivated by Bryson DeChambeau’s recent achievement. After 134 attempts over 16 days, he made a remarkable hole-in-one by hitting a shot over his own house. This feat not only showcases his skill but also adds an element of entertainment to the sport.

For those looking for engaging content, DeChambeau’s “Break 50” series offers a blend of athleticism and fun, featuring games with notable personalities like Tom Brady and former President Donald Trump.

Market Highs and the Cryptocurrency Surge

The financial markets continue to show impressive performance. The S&P 500 has risen by 27% year-to-date, reaching near all-time highs even on Black Friday. Bitcoin, too, is making headlines as it approaches its all-time high, nearing $96,000.

Cryptocurrency’s growing presence is undeniable. Personally, I’ve ventured into Bitcoin through platforms like Coinbase, finding it a user-friendly way to engage with digital assets. With mainstream platforms like PayPal and Venmo facilitating cryptocurrency transactions, it’s becoming more accessible to the average person.

Advocating for Government Efficiency

Recent discussions have brought attention to the importance of government spending and efficiency. An op-ed in The Wall Street Journal by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy introduced the concept of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The initiative aims to streamline government operations, reduce unnecessary spending, and promote accountability.

Efficient governance shouldn’t be a partisan issue. As taxpayers, it’s in everyone’s interest to ensure that funds are used wisely. By cutting down on wasteful expenditures, there’s potential not only to balance the budget but also to stimulate economic growth.

For example, comparisons between NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) and SpaceX’s launch costs highlight significant discrepancies. While the SLS costs about $2 billion per launch and isn’t reusable, SpaceX offers launches for approximately $10 million with reusable rockets. These contrasts emphasize the need for cost-effective solutions in government projects.

The Future of Autonomous Driving and Robotics

Advancements in technology continue to shape our future. Industry experts predict that autonomous driving could become mainstream by 2025. Companies like Tesla are making significant strides with their Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, showing rapid improvements in safety and performance metrics.

This progress isn’t limited to Tesla. Other companies like Waymo and Cruise are also contributing to the evolution of autonomous vehicles. The collective efforts in this space are paving the way for safer roads and more efficient transportation.

On another front, robotics is making remarkable progress. Tesla’s Optimus robot recently demonstrated the ability to catch a tennis ball, a seemingly simple task that represents a significant leap in robotic dexterity and responsiveness. It’s conceivable that within the next decade, household robots could become commonplace, assisting with daily tasks and enhancing our quality of life.

Insights from Marc Andreessen on Technology and Society

For those interested in deeper discussions about technology and its societal impacts, the recent episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience” featuring Marc Andreessen is a must-listen. Andreessen, co-founder of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (A16Z), shares valuable insights on a range of topics.

One notable point is the shift in work dynamics within federal agencies. Many government employees continue to work remotely, with some agencies negotiating minimal in-office requirements. While remote work has its advantages, it raises questions about productivity and accountability in the public sector.

Andreessen also discusses concerns about “debanking,” where individuals or organizations lose access to banking services, often without clear explanations. This phenomenon can have significant implications, especially for startups and individuals engaged in legal activities that may be deemed controversial.

Another critical topic is the regulation of artificial intelligence (AI). There have been discussions about imposing strict controls on AI development, potentially limiting innovation and competition. Open dialogue about these regulations is essential to balance safety concerns with the benefits of technological advancement.

Recommended Content for the Season

If you’re looking for engaging content during the holidays, here are some recommendations:

Podcasts: Beyond Marc Andreessen’s episode, Josh Brolin’s appearance on “The Joe Rogan Experience” offers fascinating insights into the life of the acclaimed actor.

Television Shows: “Lioness” on Paramount Plus and “Land Man,” both creations of Taylor Sheridan, provide compelling storytelling and strong performances. Sheridan’s work, including “Yellowstone,” continues to captivate audiences with its depth and realism.

Final Thoughts

As we navigate the holiday season, it’s an opportune time to cherish moments with loved ones and reflect on what’s truly important. Time is a precious resource, and how we choose to spend it shapes our memories and impacts our future selves.

Whether it’s engaging in thoughtful conversations, exploring new technologies, or simply enjoying a good meal together, let’s make the most of the present. After all, when we look back decades from now, it’s these moments that will stand out.

Wishing everyone a joyful holiday season filled with warmth, gratitude, and meaningful connections.

#76 – Thx Giving, DOGE, Markets, Tesla Read More »

Business Development Representative

Company: HathawayFinancial LLC
Job Role: Business Development Representative

HathawayFinancial (HF) is a Wealth Management and Investment Advisory Firm. We specialize in helping working professionals in the technology space build a financial plan for the long term so they can concentrate on their career and family. We do this through detailed financial planning, investment management and ad-hoc real-time advice.

We are looking for a Business Development Representative (BDR) to drive lead generation and ultimately new business. HF will provide the pipeline of leads, but needs a professional to get meetings scheduled with HF Registered Investment Advisor (RIA).

HF will provide a budget for marketing and generating leads. HF will then, in addition, pay a bonus or Sales Progression Incentive Fund (SPIF) tied to clients landed.

Job Responsibilities:

  • Core responsibility is demand and lead generation of qualified leads.
  • Being the first point of contact – email, text and verbal – for qualified leads.
  • Scheduling consultations with the Owner/Manager of HF.
  • Advise HF on most efficient use of funds to generate leads.

Qualifications:

  • Experience working with RIA’s, Investment Advisors, Planners, and Wealth Managers, etc…
  • Deep understanding of social media platforms, email marketing, and avenues to generate leads. – Digital and traditional marketing channel optimization.
  • Should have general understanding of stock market and able to discuss at high-level.

The ideal candidate:

  • You’re reading this and thinking “I know exactly what needs to be done here”.
  • Demonstrated interest and knowledge of financial services industry. More specifically
  • stock market.
  • Motivated to make a lot of money working hard.
  • Interested in converting to full-time employee after demonstrated success.
  • Positive attitude. Relentless.

Contact sean@hathawayfinancial.com for job inquiries.  

Business Development Representative Read More »

#52 – Recessions?, Invest NOW, Elon/TSLA, Ford, Hunter B.

Markets: 

S&P 500 down 15% and Nasdaq 100 down 23% YTD. 

Housing Market: 

  • Mortgage rates from 2.5 to 5.5%. $1m loan at 3% is $30,000 per year, Double that to get pre-tax earnings of $60,000. That means you need to be earning at least $60,000 more per year to cover mortgage interest on $1m loan. 

There is a silver lining to this market. Big downturns every decade or so make for the best 2-3 time opportunities in life to invest. 2022 is it. Fund your 529’s. Dollar cost average in.  

  • Sept 2000: 1520 – 800 Oct 2002. 47%. 
  • Oct 2007: 1565. 95% (doubled money in 5 years). 
  • March 2009: 712. 54% down. 
  • Jan 2022: 4800. 574%. Almost 6x. 13 years. 
  • May 2022: 3900. 20% down. 

Tesla: 

Ford: In another headline: Ford to Create Thousands of Factory Jobs, Invest $3.7 Billion in EV, Gas-Engine Production

  • The 3.7 multibillion-dollar investment will go to retooling factories to build newer versions of gas-engine models, such as the Ford Ranger pickup and Mustang sports car, the auto maker said Thursday. 
  • 55,000 Union auto workers. 

In Closing; 

#52 – Recessions?, Invest NOW, Elon/TSLA, Ford, Hunter B. Read More »

#51 – GunLaws, Layoffs, Economy, Crypto, Apple, TSLA, NFLX, Ricky

Reasonable Gun Laws. Background checks! Mandatory insurance. 

80% of Americans agree on a lot of things. 10% extremes driving the political conversation and divisiveness. 

Elon Musk just said this again that if he owned Twitter 80% would like it, but 10% extreme left and right would complain vehemently. 

Economy and Markets:

Huge rally this week: Stocks up 4% in 4 days. 

  • Layoffs at PayPal, Netflix,  Robinhood and Bolt (one click startup payment company)
  • Hiring Freeze/slowing at Meta, Uber, Coinbase, Microsoft, Nvidia.  
    • I have not traded on Coinbase in 2 months. 

Fed minutes indicated will still increase 0.5% in June and July. But then open to “wait and see”. 

Housing market: 

  • Mortgage rates up: 2.5% to 5%+ 
  • Home Sales are down Jan to April. 6.5m to 5.6. 15% down. Spring/summer should be up!? 
  • Single family starts lowest since Oct 2021. 
  • Mortgage purchase applications slowest since May 2020. 
  • Homebuilder sentiment lowest since June 2020. 

Energy:

  • Gasoline up 80%. 

Crypto is not a hedge: 

  • Crypto market cap has fallen from $2.3t to 1.3t. 
  • $4.5b fund at Andreeson Horowitz. A16z
  • My Luna is $0. 
  • BTC. Down 56%
  • ETH. Down 60%. 
  • DCA in still recommended. 

Apple holding up well in the News. 

  • $144, down 21% YtD. was down 25%
  • Flat iPhone sales. 220m, same as 2021. Expected 240. 
  • Tormer Tesla Autopilot software engineer who left to join Apple’s secretive car project last year, has left Apple to join Luminar.
  • Lidar vs. AI real cameras. Tesla showing different types of cars, doors open, garbage cans, cones, traffic lights…insane! 

Tesla: 

  • Diner. Submitted plans for a Tesla diner as part of charging station in Hollwood. 
  • 3700 charging stations globally.
  • Elon committed to buying Twitter.  

Netflix: 

Netflix Games suck. 

  • Stranger Things. Can it have a Squid Game effect? Its been 3 years and only show streamed/seen more was final episode of GoT. 

In Closing: 

#51 – GunLaws, Layoffs, Economy, Crypto, Apple, TSLA, NFLX, Ricky Read More »

#50 – Recessions, Stocks, CPI, Tech, NFLX, TSLA/Twitter, Elon interview!

Market update: 

  • S&P 20% and NDX 29%. Largely propped up by Energy: Up 
  • Inflation data: 8.3%
  • Fed at 0.75% – 1% and raise 0.5% in June and July. Will have to stop before mid-terms! Q4 rally? 
    • Federal Reserve is a joke. Powell keeps talking about controlling inflation. 
    • This is going to 
  • Coming for “the Generals”
  • Crypto. Terra (Luna). Bitcoin at 29k down from 68k. 57%. 
  • Consumer Sentiment index.  
  • Target, Costco, Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot, Koels: All down 25-40%.
  • FATMAANN. All down over 25%. Shooting Generals.

#Netflix stock down 73% from high and making some strategic adjustments. Would have been nice to see 6-9 months ago. But, better late than never:

1. Content: Focus on higher quality.

2. Content: Testing live TV.

3. Content: Staggered release. Stranger Things in Q2 and Q3.

4. Revenue: Advertising in Q4.

5. Revenue: Crackdown on 100m households sharing passwords.

6. Culture: “You may need to work on titles you perceive to be harmful. If you’d find it hard to support our content breadth, Netflix may not be the best place for you.” I guess they realized “get woke, go broke”. Applies to (1) above as well.

7. Culture of Finance: “Spend our members money wisely.” Layoffs terrible, but sends a message of fiscal responsibility (or is it a message that Q2 is going to be even more awful than forecast!?)

To be fair, even if Netflix was growing subscribers at decent clip, the stock would still be down 30-40%. But anything beyond that is Management’s responsibility. 

  • Tesla. 
    • Tesla removed for S&P ESG Index
    • Why buy Twitter. Play clip 1:
    • Twitter. Bots. <5%. 
    • Says he’s voting republican.
    • My take: similar. Voted Dem for niceness. 
      • Pro borders and pro immigration. 
      • Pro law enforcement. And pro-freedom. 
      • Social programs. Helping homeless. But not feeding them crackpipes. 
    • Tesla at All-In. Play clip. 
    • This is pretty incredible. This means Tesla’s operating income of $3.60B in Q1 2022 was slightly higher than Toyota’s ($3.56B), the largest automaker in the world by vehicle volume.Toyota sold ~2,759,000 vehicles in Q1 vs Tesla who sold 310,048.
  • In lighter news: 
    • My Tesla service story.  
    • Teen tracking Elon’s jet is now tracking Zuckerberg. “He tracks us, so we should track him. 
    • Lincoln Lawyer. 

#50 – Recessions, Stocks, CPI, Tech, NFLX, TSLA/Twitter, Elon interview! Read More »

Jan 7, 2022 – Happy New Year

US Stock market up 26% in 2021. And that’s on the back of 21% and 31% in 2020 and 2019. In fact, if you invested in the stock market in January 2017, you’ve DOUBLED your money in 4 years. 

Last year I mentioned my fascination/obsession with FATMAANN (FB, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, NFLX): dominant market leaders, growing revenues and profitability, global brand recognition and adoption. FATMAANN up monstrous 44% last year! 

BUT, it hasn’t been all ponies and rainbows; particularly if you were invested in high-growth new tech stocks. I’m going to call them “Shiny and New” vs the “Tried and True.” 

Here are some key observations: 

  • Tried & True is up 44% over the last year, while Shiny & New is down 29%.
  • Tried & True is 13% off high, while Shiny & New is 57% off high.
  • Average age of Shiny & New is 3.5 years since IPO, while the Tried & True is a whopping 23 years!!! 
  • Interestingly both groups have similar average price/sales ratios of 12.

BTW, I think Stitch and the Hood are going to rebound massively, as will others (but not investment advice!)

Market Outlook

Markets are down because the Fed intends to begin tapering and raising interest rates in an effort to combat high inflation. This has the effect of driving the stock market down for a few reasons: 

  • As interest rates rise, alternative investments (like fixed income bonds) become more attractive. 
  • Investors use leverage to purchase stocks and as interest rates rise, leverage/debt becomes more expensive. So less borrowing to buy stocks. 
  • In draw-downs, like we’re seeing this week, there is a psychological collective market flight to safety. Everyone’s a little panicked so they pull money out and sit on the sidelines. The key is to wait and not panic. 

There are a lot of reasons to be hopeful in 2022: 

  • Job openings are at record highs and unemployment record lows. See Beveridge curve.
  • Our economy is booming and companies (like FATMAANN) are likely to post record revenues and profits for Q4. 

In other words there are no fundamental structural issues with our economy. We are due for a correction, its short term pain, but markets will continue upward and to the right soon enough. 

Web 3.0

Web 3.0 was the dominant theme of 2021:  DAOs, NFTs, BlockChains, Crypto, tools, protocols and digital infrastructure that are enabling our worlds to be more secure and decentralized. Here’s an informative primer from a16z on What is Web 3.0.

I’ve been digging into Crypto lately and encouraging my clients to explore and own as well. It’s here to stay and I see value incorporating it into your financial portfolio. The best one page information source I’ve discovered on Crypto is an annual thesis written by Messari CEO Ryan Selkis; it’s extremely insightful and entertaining (I love how he unapologetically bashes Gary Gensler). 

On a personal note, I’m using Coinbase and Voyager apps to purchase Bitcoin, Etherium, Solana, Dogecoin and Luna on a weekly basis (dollar cost averaging in). 

In Closing

Nancy Pelosi is a sophisticated stock trader and if you want to follow her it’s publicly available here. Not sure how I feel about our politicians trading stocks, but at least it’s disclosed, and I’m pretty excited she bought call options on Roblox, Alphabet and Salesforce. 

Back Door Roth. Build Back Better didn’t pass – at least not yet – so your back door and mega-back door Roth IRA’s are safe for now. 

Breakaway Podcast. Check out my Pod and come be a guest.

Entertainment. With the kids we’re watching Lost in Space and starting Cobra Kai. Lorena and I are finishing Succession and getting ready to binge Yellowstone. And I just started Narcos Mexico S3. All recommended.

Job. If you know someone younger in their career or even recently graduated that wants to work as an investment advisor let them know I’m looking for a junior partner.

Please forward this to someone you think may find it interesting. 

Take care! 

Be kind. Be positive. Persevere.

Sean 

www.HathawayFinancial.com

Twitter: @seanjhathaway

(If you no longer want to receive these emails, please reply back directly.)

Jan 7, 2022 – Happy New Year Read More »