Opening

• I make mistakes on my podcasts. Please feel free to comment and fact-check me. It's hard. I try to go hard and not pause. 
  • NFL on Netflix on “Saturday”. Wednesday is x-mas.  
• Oregon plays Michigan today. Ducks favored by 14.5
• Redmond:
  • Visiting parents. 
  • Very cold there.
  • Food carts and BEER!!! Need that in San Jose! Huge business opportunity! 
• Alaska Airlines thoughts. 
• Single digit golf stats: 

Markets

• Overall strong earnings, but seeing some pullback.  
• Can’t bet against these big guys.  

Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio: To calculate the total value of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S., most analysts use The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, which is an index that represents the value of all stocks in the U.S. markets. The quarterly GDP is used as the denominator in the ratio calculation.

Typically, a result that is greater than 100% is said to show that the market is overvalued, while a value of around 50%, which is near the historical average for the U.S. market, is said to show undervaluation. If the valuation ratio falls between 50% and 75%, the market can be said to be modestly undervalued.

• 2.0 almost at all time high. Last time at 2 was Nov 2021.  

CAPE Ratio:

• 35. 
• 38 in Nov 2021. 
• 44 in Dec 1999. 

Ford, Meta, Google, Microsoft, XAI

Ford Earnings. 

• • Ford to idle production of F150 Lightning. 
    • Ford has sold a mere 22,807 Lightnings so far this year—a far cry from the 180,000 the Dearborn factory was originally supposed to produce. The EV lobby and its friends in the press fawned over the Lightning when it debuted two years ago. The Lightning supposedly signaled that EVs had finally gone mainstream. Not quite.
    • Ford’s EV division has lost $3.7 billion during the first three quarters of this year—about $55,000 per EV—and expects $5 billion to $5.5 billion in losses this year.
• Tesla Net Income $2.2 billion.

Meta: 

These numbers are insane! 

• Revenue up $6b or 19%. $41b vs $34b
• Operating margin 43% from 40%. 
• Net income up $4b (35%). . $16 vs $12. 

Google /Alphabet Earnings

• Earnings release here. 
• Revenues up 15% to $88.3 billion.
• Total operating income increased 34%.
• Net income increased 34% and EPS increased 37% to $2.12.

Microsoft

• Revenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%
• Operating income was $30.6 billion and increased 14%
• Net income was $24.7 billion and increased 11% 

XAI - 

xAI plans to bring online an additional 100,000 Nvidia GPUs at its Memphis, Tennessee training cluster within the next 2 months, for a total of 200,000 Nvidia GPUs, doubling the size of what was already the world's largest and most powerful supercomputer.

• This is AFTER Jensen Huang praised xAI's engineering, networking, infrastructure and software teams, referring to them as “extraordinary”. By putting 100,000 GPUs, Colossus has become “easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster
• AI smarter than all humans combined by 2029
• By 2040 more humanoid robots than people.

President of the US

• Trump on Rogan
• JD Vance on Rogan
  • Tulsi and RFK have also been on Rogan. And Elon. 
• Kamala on Call her Daddy
• Hillary Clinton in 2008:“If they’ve committed a crime… DEPORT THEM! No questions asked. You’re gone!If you want to become a citizen you have to pay a stiff fine, pay back taxes, and learn english.
• PolyMarket: 60% : 40%
• Jeff Bezos on Washington Post - TRUST
  • We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility.
  • Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election. No undecided voters in Pennsylvania are going to say, “I’m going with Newspaper A’s endorsement.” None. What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. 
  • While I do not and will not push my personal interest, I will also not allow this paper to stay on autopilot and fade into irrelevance — overtaken by unresearched podcasts and social media barbs — not without a fight. It’s too important. The stakes are too high. Now more than ever the world needs a credible, trusted, independent voice, and where better for that voice to originate than the capital city of the most important country in the world? 
• Regulations: From Chamath: They also issue thousands of regulations annually, which far exceeds the number of laws passed by Congress during its biennial term. Given that these regulations touch nearly every aspect of American life today and the vast majority of federal employees within the agencies are.
• Remember the Whales, Sharks and Seal studies from SpaceX.  

Recommendations:

• The Penguin on Max. 
• Slow Horses on Apple.
• The Lioness on Paramount.  Not easy to figure out!! Hours on phone/internet with Xfinity. No humans…impossible.