#50 – Recessions, Stocks, CPI, Tech, NFLX, TSLA/Twitter, Elon interview!

June 9, 2022

Market update: 

  • S&P 20% and NDX 29%. Largely propped up by Energy: Up 
  • Inflation data: 8.3%
  • Fed at 0.75% - 1% and raise 0.5% in June and July. Will have to stop before mid-terms! Q4 rally? 
    • Federal Reserve is a joke. Powell keeps talking about controlling inflation. 
    • This is going to 
  • Coming for “the Generals”
  • Crypto. Terra (Luna). Bitcoin at 29k down from 68k. 57%. 
  • Consumer Sentiment index.  
  • Target, Costco, Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot, Koels: All down 25-40%.
  • FATMAANN. All down over 25%. Shooting Generals.

#Netflix stock down 73% from high and making some strategic adjustments. Would have been nice to see 6-9 months ago. But, better late than never:

1. Content: Focus on higher quality.

2. Content: Testing live TV.

3. Content: Staggered release. Stranger Things in Q2 and Q3.

4. Revenue: Advertising in Q4.

5. Revenue: Crackdown on 100m households sharing passwords.

6. Culture: "You may need to work on titles you perceive to be harmful. If you’d find it hard to support our content breadth, Netflix may not be the best place for you." I guess they realized "get woke, go broke". Applies to (1) above as well.

7. Culture of Finance: "Spend our members money wisely." Layoffs terrible, but sends a message of fiscal responsibility (or is it a message that Q2 is going to be even more awful than forecast!?)

To be fair, even if Netflix was growing subscribers at decent clip, the stock would still be down 30-40%. But anything beyond that is Management's responsibility. 

  • Tesla. 
    • Tesla removed for S&P ESG Index
    • Why buy Twitter. Play clip 1:
    • Twitter. Bots. <5%. 
    • Says he’s voting republican.
    • My take: similar. Voted Dem for niceness. 
      • Pro borders and pro immigration. 
      • Pro law enforcement. And pro-freedom. 
      • Social programs. Helping homeless. But not feeding them crackpipes. 
    • Tesla at All-In. Play clip. 
    • This is pretty incredible. This means Tesla's operating income of $3.60B in Q1 2022 was slightly higher than Toyota's ($3.56B), the largest automaker in the world by vehicle volume.Toyota sold ~2,759,000 vehicles in Q1 vs Tesla who sold 310,048.
  • In lighter news: 
    • My Tesla service story.  
    • Teen tracking Elon’s jet is now tracking Zuckerberg. “He tracks us, so we should track him. 
    • Lincoln Lawyer. 
I'm Sean Hathaway

Hi, I'm Sean

20 years of finance experience and obsessed with high quality results.

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